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The ratings are weight adjusted, usually to ten stone. Using a handicap on the card may be a better example. Looking at the 7.40 at Windsor
The Betchworth Kid carries 9-4, 10lb shy of 10 stone, therefore we add 10 lb to his RPR of 92 to get an adjusted RPR of 102
Higgys Boy carries 8-13. Therefore we need to add 15 lb to his RPR to adjust that rating also to 10 stone. i.e. 15 lb to the RPR of 82 makes an adjusted RPR of 97,
So taking into account the weights carried, according to the RPR’s, The Betchworth Kid should finish 5 lb ahead of Higgys Boy.
Should be the same thing adjusted to 10 stone. RPR of 76, horse carries 9-0, i.e. 14 lb less than 10 stone so 14 lb added to RPR of 76 to get adjusted RPR of 90.
Another horse in that race Forward Feline has an RPR of 70. She also carries 9 stone. Therefore 14 lb needs adding to her RPR to adjust that rating to 10 stone. That’s why the adjusted RPR is 84.
Just to chip in momentarily – if you need them, Firefox, the same principle applies with National Hunt adjusted RPRs, except you need to work to 12st rather than 10st.
gc
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Hi Firefox
Just to further complicate the issue what you have been told up to now is correct but the ratings on the card are so called adjusted ratings which basically means they add or subtract to or from the ratings to take into account such things as the draw and the going and basically if they don’t like the look of the top ratedHi Firefox
Just to further complicate the issue what you have been told up to now is correct but the ratings on the card are so called adjusted ratings which basically means they add or subtract to or from the ratings to take into account such things as the draw and the going and basically if they don’t like the look of the top ratederm….no they don’t! RPR’s are adjusted for weights carried, but not for adverse draws or going, and certainly not because "they" don’t fancy the top rated runner. Some ratings services take basic class pars and adjust for race conditions and other factors, but that is not true of either Racing Post or Timeform ratings, and rightly so.
…………..at this stage, it is probably best not to mention the weight-for-age scale………..oops, I just did!
Colin
erm….no they don’t! RPR’s are adjusted for weights carried, but not for adverse draws or going, and certainly not because "they" don’t fancy the top rated runner. Some ratings services take basic class pars and adjust for race conditions and other factors, but that is not true of either Racing Post or Timeform ratings, and rightly so.
Hi Rory
In that case the adjusted would be the same as the best or at least only differ by the poundage carried.. Take Dreams Jewel 5.00 Bath latest 41 best 45 adj 52 weight 11.1 ie 15lbs to take off somewhere to adjust for weight only. BTW I agree they shouldn’t. Top speed also did itRory,
Timeform’s ratings are ‘fiddled’ on a daily basis – you can still access the raw figures but no doubt that they are tinkered with.
Firefox
Your enquiry is of the type that would keep Nick Mordin happy for a long time!
You’d have to look at the different classes of Maidens. Average RPRs for maidens at Catterick are, I suspect, far lower than similar RPRs for some of the maidens at Newbury and Newmarket.
However, there are other problems. I think you’d need to look at winners of a specific class of maiden and then see what RPRs they ran to before the race they’re about to contest. It’s not unusual for ratings compilers to give horses substantially higher RPRs on the basis of a win. Yet, when you look at the horses’ previous marks you perhaps would not see any sign of such improvement. If you have access to the data you could look at median or mode RPRs of maiden winners and then see if there are any patterns.
I think I read somewhere that ORs of 75 and above tend to be needed to win an average maiden – is this also true?
That’s probably true but the 3yo+ maidens at this time of year, particularly over mile and middle-distances, are generally above average, as are 2yo maidens over 7f+ at the ‘backend’ of the turf season.
Hi Marcus
I can find no logic in this 3yo+ maidens are usually fairly rubbish as 4yo plus have little chance at the weights and older maidens are not generally a recommendation. Also the backend 2yo maidens at 7f plus are basically going to attract staying type horses although not necessarily good ones.It depends on the courses they are run at and the class level of the raceI think what I mean is that there are some decent 3yos just getting started at this time of year, and therefore something going in with an OR of about 75 will be vulnerable to those unraced / once-raced types.
I wasn’t trying to point you specifically towards maidens also open to older horses – apologies for being misleading.
Now that Firefox has been confused I will now make it worse.
I found an explanation of the RPR ratings on, (believe it or not) the DRF web site.
http://www.drf.com/products/rpr/rpr.html
I would not like to speculate on the accuracy though
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