Does anyone know

[billion]

Many times reference has been made to “Race System Builder” or something like that, please forgive me if wrong but am sure if you are reading this you will know of it.

I am trying to put together an idea for a system but would like to know the statistical strike rate of a handicap winner last time out that does not follow up again when racing again.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Matron]

You might get lucky if somebody has got it on here.

You could also try Adrian Massey site: http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/

[billion]

Thanks for the “nod” Matron but Massey was not any help but then again if it was there I did not find it.

Billy's Outback Shack

[rab123]

I can give you a strike rate of 25.78 pro/loss £325 at sp over four years.
Last race pos 2/3/4/7/8/9/10.
List of trainers.
Works at all race codes and all distances.

[billion]

Just to confirm your post rab123 that 25% of all runners in handicaps that won their previous race win again and 75% do not.

I hope my understanding is correct and therefor it is better to avoid last time out winners.

This is a great help to me, thank-you.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

I am not sure if this idea will go very far but rab123 has given up a pointer that winners last time out do not come back with a very good record for the next race and so that is the starting point.

But I do want a reasonable price and a reasonable chance of winning and not dozens of daily selections that I am unable to cope with.

So picking a little info from one place and a little info from another place and combining them may prove to be a profitable strategy, well fingers crossed.

My thought process goes back to a long lost system for handicap races where the very first rule was to delete any winners LTO.

With Cheltenham upon us I reflect on Fenman’s dictum only to back the shortest price Course and Distance winner in the race.

The “Tilt at the Top Weights” author suggests a 23 day rule being more successful but did not know why.

Last but not least the search for a better price and so I will only consider one horse for each handicap race being the forecast second favourite, I will use the Daily Mirror.

So, in a nut-shell; –

2nd forecast fav. with CD form running within 23 days but not having won LTO

Ayr 4.05 ONE FOR ARTHUR, 19 days, CD, form 352, 3/1 2f

£1 at 11/4 bet365 (favourite in the early live market) LOST

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Nothing for Sunday

Billy's Outback Shack

[Dolus]

Hi Billion I do not come here very often so am a bit late with this.

I am not saying that Rab123 is wrong but I notice he has the last race positions as everything except 1st which is what you wanted to know. Even if last time out winners achieve a 25% strike rate in their next race it has to be compared to what other finishing positions achieve in their next race.

I can give you a strike rate of 25.78 pro/loss £325 at sp over four years.
Last race pos 2/3/4/7/8/9/10.
List of trainers.
Works at all race codes and all distances.

Below from Adrian Massey website. Last time winners win 16.9% next time out and while poor is still the best compared to other finishing positions.

Flat Handicaps 2012 -2016
Results broken down by Finishing Position of Horse in its Most Recent Race
… Win Strike Rate
1st…..16.9%
2nd…..15.1%
3rd…..12.8%
4th…..10.6%
5th……9.2%
6th……8.5%
7th+…..6.5%
Fell……6.2%
PU…….5.3%
Not Run..2.3%

I have also read your FENMAN thread now Cheltenham is over and the dust has settled I did a Google on that book and it looks kind of interesting so I ordered a copy.

[billion]

Thanks for your reply Dolus.

I am still “tinkering” with this idea but it is not working out very well but perhaps there will be more to come.

I am sure you will not be disappointed with FENMANS book which I may have to re-order as my copy is beginning to disintegrate and even the sticky tape is not doing its job very well.

I enjoy the read and the insight into one man’s life story as much as finding the simple but logic applied to solving the problems of winner finding.

I only backed the selections at Cheltenham according to his application although logic dictated I did not cover the 150/1 with the same stake as the 11/8 choice but was happy to count a profit after the 4 days. However it was not too hard to enjoy unless you were a bookie.

Billy's Outback Shack

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