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Gosden has today said that Cracksman won’t be seen until October, when he will either run in France or at Ascot. How disappointing this season has turned out to be!
IIRC, Magic Wand had an issue which would allow you to excuse her last run. I think she scoped dirty afterwards?
I thought Coronet was the best horse in this. I know Sea of Class could still be anything, but the 3yo crop doesn’t look stellar. Coronet’s 3rd in the King George and 2nd in that French G1 looks solid form. With her in mind, I think HORSEPLAY looks a massive price at 16s. Oisin Murphy has already been booked and she hasn’t ran for 47 days so this has clearly been her plan. She was a length behind Coronet on her first run after a lay-off, over a trip too short, and then won the Lancashire Oaks when beating God Given (who I’m a big fan of). She can improve again and should love the galloping track.
I’ve backed LADY FRANKEL today. That run in the l’Opera was fantastic, probably not given an ideal ride. She finished in a bunch with subsequent G1 horses and she has only been seen once since, running in a prep for this race.
Finished 2nd last week on good to soft. This week it was good. I can’t see that being the reason.
Shanghai Glory was off the bridle from the start. Not his true running. I wonder what happened?
I backed Cracksman for this in anticipation of the rain, which suddenly looks unlikely to materialise.
If he gets good ground and he runs, I think he wins. But in the likely event he skips this, Poets Word is clearly the form standard. My concern would be how hard a race he had in the King George and would be leaving him alone at 2/1.
At the moment, ROARING LION would be my pick. He loves the course, has been kept quite fresh for this and just seems better than the rest of the field (with the exception of PW and Cracksman).
Without Parole is interesting, as on his breeding you could easily see him getting this trip. He’s unexposed over this far, but that was a disappointing effort LTO and I think he might not quite be up to winning a race as hot as this.
Knight to Behold put up a sectional performance on the clock of 126. Don’t make the mistake of under-estimating him.
This was quite clearly a prep run for Study of Man. He shaped well enough, but I would wait until next time before you write off the form of an entire classic.
Cross Counter put up a Timeform Time Figure of 124, which is the single best performance by a 3yo colt this season in their figures. Using RP’s own ratings calculator, that would put Dee Ex Bee running to a RPR of 117, close to his best form. I get that the Handicapper and RP have taken a dimmer view of the form, so I guess it depends on which ratings you think are more likely to be accurate.
Completely agree with you about Cross Counter. I thought he would be favourite after his performance and given that this is his confirmed target!
Just as an aside, are any Australian horses planning on turning up to this? It seems every stayer in the country is planning on going to Melbourne Cup!
Yesterday I backed Justanotherbottle at a big price, only to get caught late on today. Today I’ve backed the one doing the catching! Big run from James Garfield, he should be of interest in the Breeders Cup Sprint over the same sort of distance and probably on fast ground. Polydream was very impressive, always looked like getting there. Think she wins the Foret next.
POLYDREAM for me.
This has been her target for some time, and her form stacks up really well. Comfortably beat Laurens on her second start, and then didn’t quite stay the mile when only 1.5 lengths behind Wild Illusion. Never landed a blow in the French Guineas when she was a bit queen throughout, but got back on track when beating Inns of Court far more easily than the winning margin shows, and the manner with which she pulled clear when asked was impressive and suggests she should take this drop in trip in her stride. There is a slight worry with the ground, but she’s got form on good ground and she doesn’t look to have an overly rounded action so I’m happy take the 6s.
Good luck
