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Ripons big race of the year this weekend.
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/49/ripon/2018-08-18/707723
I’ve put him up so often on here, and after jinxing him several times, he looked as good as ever at Goodwood in The Stewards Cup, putting to bed any doubts I had, that he may be regressing.
Ran here off of 109 last term, but surely here, on 99, he has a massive chance. His win ratio isn’t great, so I’ll take the 9’s each way, just in case he manages to get beat again, but he surely, surely, makes the frame here.
A race where I’ll definitely bet another, and also looking closely at….
Foolaad
Ice Age
Out Do
Teruntum StarGrowl, Each Way 9’s
I agree with you, VTC.
All the other three in the frame at Goodwood were prominently ridden; therefore can be rated quite a bit better than distances beaten suggests. I backed the winner there but feel Growl would’ve won had the pace been different. Runs off the same mark here. Didn’t end last season or start this too well, but as a consequence dropped in the handicap. Slowly progressing back towards his 2017 best, which means he’ll probably run even better than last time… And although as you say well beaten off 109 here last year, was beaten less than a length in last year’s Stewards Cup off that 109! Now 99!Value Is EverythingI hope that Spring Loaded runs well here, and them maybe heads to the
Ayr Gold Cup, as I’ve already mentioned on that thread. I think that although
he’s raised to his highest mark yet, there’s more to come. He won the Portland
last year in a canter and although raised 9lbs he finished well late on in the
Coral Sprint for 2nd next time out. He looked back in top form last month when he
won at Ascot and last time out in the Stewards Cup, he was held up by Ryan Moore
and made good ground at the finish to go down by just over 2L in 7th position.
That was despite subsequently being found to have finished lame behind. Despite
now running off of 107, I think he can be competitive here as long as he’s fit,
and as he’s still in after the 5 day decs then I’m assuming he has got over his
problem. The only slight concern I have is that William Carson is jocked up.
No harm to him, but I’d rather have had a Moore or a Dettori, both whom have ridden
him in the past, taking the reins. Having said that, Carson has sat on him once back
in 2015 at Wolverhampton, and won on him then so hopefully he can get a double. I
think that at 14/1 with Paddy Power he’s decent enough value
BigG almost another crossed post between us again. As you have already mentioned, he looks good to me for here as well as Ayr. I have taken that 14-1
Great minds think alike buckers
(I’m choosing to leave the rest of that quote out 
)I almost backed Spring Loaded myself @ 14/1. Suspect if turning up that price will look enormous. Agreed, don’t think he’s at all badly handicapped and could even improve again. Like Growl in the Stewards Cup, did well considering too far back. However, am a little concerned about the weather forecast for Spring Loaded. Although has some form on softish ground, improvement has come on a sounder surface. So a possibility going had something to do with progression. Also, he’s got plenty of speed equally effective at 5f. So even on good-soft I wonder if this will be a greater test of stamina than ideally suits. On a sound surface I’d be glad to take any double figure price.
Value Is EverythingGrowl looked good at Goodwood last time but that is nothing new. He has run three times at Goodwood in his lifetime and each time it has been in the Steward’s Cup.
His Steward’s Cup record reads 4-4-3, which is excellent, but if you think about it, based on last year’s Steward’s Cup effort off 109, he should have been a total shoo-in for this years renewal off 99.
So he goes to this year’s St Wilfred “Well in” in theory but we have already seen that he should have been “Well in” in the Stewards Cup but he didn’t manage to capitalise on the 10 lbs lower mark. Which makes it tough to assume that he can better his effort in the St Wilfred last year, when he was a fairly warm favourite at 5/1.
Growl has run twice at Ripon, and we can forgive him last season off 109, despite him being a warm favourite, because he was a silly price off that mark. However, he was 4th the other time he ran here and that was from an appealing mark of 89, a couple of years ago.
I just get the feeling Growl will end up a silly price and fail to add to his 4 wins.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think that’s a pretty sound assessment Ginger, I’m on weather watch until Saturday. It
seems there is some rain tonight, going into the early hours, but it should be dry thereafter
and there is a decent breeze with temperatures well in the 60s (I’m old school). Going is down
as Good at the moment, I doubt it will be any worse than that unless they get a deluge tonight.
I’d prefer, as you say, a sound surface, but he did coast home in the Portland on Good to Soft
over 5 1/2 f, albeit that was off a mark 15lb lower, so I hope he might manage the extra 1/2 if
it is slightly on the slow side. A few “ifs” there, but I’m hopefulI’d be sceptical of the official going on the day Spring Loaded won the Portland, three races overall times less than two seconds slower than Racing Post Standard (including the Portland). That’s not imo good-soft going, BigG. Two handicaps and one Group 1. St Leger was run just 0.072 slow per furlong.
Value Is EverythingHope you’re right GT, and I remain hopeful, was happy with effort last time.
Steve, certainly share your concerns, and his win ratio isn’t that great, hence the ew rather than the win, but I’ll be well disappointed if he can’t place here.
Spring Loaded declared and weather holding for you, BigG. Officially Good ground and (after the next hour) only around 20% chance of rain at times between now and the off; your 14/1 looking more likely than not to be a bloody good bet.
Value Is EverythingPace is important and look at what happened at Goodwood. Growl did by bar the best of the hold up horses in the Stewards Cup (a race more competitive than this). Only one in the frame to be held up off fractions slower than usual. ie Yes he was “well in” and had the pace been quicker the chances are he’d have won the Stewards Cup off this very mark of 99.
Yes, Growl hasn’t won many races and be nice if he’d finished in front, can see why VTC has chosen to bet each way. I’ll be having other main bets and probably saver bets too, so willing to take a chance. Although favourite he is 9/1, so chances are he will fail to add to those 4 wins. Win ratio can also largely be put down to racing in more competitive races for longer than vast majority of rivals here. ie Other than one Class 3 reappearance when blatently unfit, his last 11 races have all been either competitive big field Class 2 handicaps or Group 1 races… Probably kept to these races because this type of race is more likely (although not certain) to be run at the good pace that suits his style of racing. Admittedly that run style can put him at a disadvantage when the pace doesn’t suit – so on the face of it will be less consistent.
If things to go his way imo has a great chance. If I didn’t think this race is going to be run to his advantage I wouldn’t back him. ie Made a comment prior to the Stewards Cup there wasn’t as many pace horses. Here I can count seven possible front runners – more horses disputing the pace means more likely to be truly run – suiting Growl.
I wouldn’t worry too much about not being as well suited by Ripon. Yes, was a well supported 5/1 fav last year, but lost all chance by being very slowly away…. As long as he doesn’t do the same Saturday!
Value Is EverythingSpring Loaded declared and weather holding for you, BigG. Officially Good ground and (after the next hour) only around 20% chance of rain at times between now and the off; your 14/1 looking more likely than not to be a bloody good bet.
Cheers Ginger, so far so good. He’s best priced 12s with Betfair, but generally between
9/1 and 11/1. I think there’s a fair chance he will be single figure by Saturday. I see
he’s drawn in stall 3, I’m not sure how that will work out, it seems from the last few
years that it’s a pretty mixed bag. As in most sprints in probably comes down to where
the pace is. I’m slightly concerned on that point, as most round about him tend to be held
up. Possibly Henley, drawn 6, might make a target as he likes to get up their early in his
races, and maybe Reputation in 5, although he’s very in and out and Ice Age is more midfield
in 10. Hopefully he can get a good tow and all things concerned I’m still quite hopefulIf anything, BigG; I feel the pace might favour Spring loaded (and Growl’s) side. Because although of my seven possible pace setters, only two are drawn low… those are probably the two most likely to front run/be at the head of the seven. Henley in 6 and Reputation in 5 and there’s also Ice Age in 10 and Foolaad in 11. Where the latter pair go is questionable, they do tend to split at Ripon rather than going up the middle; so could go either way. But Reputation and Henley should ensure a good pace for low numbers.
Most of the fancied horses are drawn low too, so better handicapped horses likely to draw the held up low drawn horses in to it.
Value Is EverythingGood luck with Spring Loaded and Growl guys
IMO Growl is a professional loser not because he is dodgy or anything but just cos he is a slave to fortune and ideally he wants a superfast pace to run at in the final furlong and at the price is not for me.
Spring Loaded is ideal for the Portland and I think he will run in and probably win that again given the right conditions ergo five and a half furlongs.My two against the field are one either side TERENTUM STAR who beat Spring Loaded last year getting three pound and is now getting eight and also won the consolation race for this last year and is also only a pound higher thn his win in October (Spring Loaded second) 16/1 great price!!
and SHANGHAI GLORY who is four pound lower than when he finished third last year in this race and was possibly drawn the wrong side or maybe it was Frank Spencer up to his normal tricks and coming too late but anyway he is well in compared to last year and was unlucky at Epsom derby day too 14/1 good price too!!
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