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For me, yes. Willie Mullins domination is boring. Just as Man City’s domination is boring. Just as Max Verstappen’s domination is boring. Lack of competition is bad for any sport. Every now and then you get a “people’s horse” like a Frankel/Winx/Altior that the general public is interested in and that gets people through the gate, but I can’t imagine anyone turning up because a trainer is dominating.
It’s funny because a few years ago someone did a piece on which trainer campaigns their Grade 1 horses the most before Cheltenham, and Willie came out lower than Nicky – as in he runs them LESS – and lower than any other trainer.
If Constitution Hill runs again this season, make sure Ballyburn is entered in the same race. You’ll know from that result whether he’s a Champion Hurdle horse or whether he’s a Samcro.
I went back and looked at the past ten years and every time the winner was within a stone of the bottom weight. They were also Irish-bred. This gives us a shortlist of:
Autonomous Cloud
Ask Me Early
Inis Orr
My Silver Lining
Young DevYoung Dev is fascinating. Second two years ago to Screaming Colours (nothing would have beaten him that day, even the staff at the course restaurant gave us him as a “tip” for the day). He’s here off a few LBs lower, and I don’t think Hogan would bring him over for the sake of it. He’s been heavily tried in the past few months – not sure why – but I can imagine he’s been targetted at this.
Past winners tend to be low weight and Irish bred. But given how many also are entered in the Kim Muir, this is probably going to be smaller field than usual. Will wait for final decs, but Autonomous Cloud and My Silver Lining are interesting.
Cyrname has looked very quick and so far unproven over the King George trip. I wouldn’t be so quick to assume that he stays it.
Can anyone explain the 10/1 about Platinum Star? Close form with Pinatubo (7/4), was better than Visinari (7/2) LTO and shapes as if this step up in trip will suit, especially so on breeding.
When horses retire from racing and come back, do they generally come back to the same level of ability? The only frame of reference I have is Toast of New York, who clearly didn’t that could be an age thing as well.
Perhaps a harsh one, but I’m firmly off the Roger Varian band-wagon. He had Postponed given to him as a ready-made champion, and otherwise, the only thing he seems to do is prep horses for handicaps or lower grade pattern contests after a long break.
Saeed Bin Suroor seems fairly put in his place by Charlie Appleby.
Hugo Palmer doesn’t seem to be regarded as the bright young thing he once was.
I’m also not mad about Charles Hills. Battaash should be the eminent 5f horse on the planet, but despite being the ultimate professional now he looks a Group 2 horse at best. Equilateral also looked a monster early last season but has completely gone off the rails.
I’m probably expecting way too much, mind.
176 is still way too high considering Politologue bled and Waiting Patiently is clearly suffering. This time next year they will have adjusted that down to the 160s.
Min was visually very impressive, but Politologue bled from the nose and didn’t give his running. Waiting Patiently is not the horse he was last season. Hell’s Kitchen is not without his own problems, and God’s Own is an ageing force who doesn’t love soft ground. The fact Timeform have immediately given Min a rating of 181 – greater than anything they’ve given Altior, who has destroyed Min every time they have met – is astonishing.
Lil Rockeferller appeals at 25s. The trainer has mentioned that they might send him back hurdling for this race as he has “Unfinished business” in this race.
