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There is a chance that sir percy (like any horse in that race) could bomb out but he has never ran a bad race in his career, so it is unlikely. Hurricane lacks the turn of foot, pride lacks the class of sir percy (her arc second reads better than it really was), araafa is highly unlikely to see out the trip, and really the rest of the field fall into one of those 3 categories. I honestly think that betting against him is throwing money away.
Well mark johnston and Bin suroor had a lot of success with shamardal, Noseda has had success with Sixties icon and araafa, meehan has had success with red rocks, bolger with teofilo and galatee(to a lesser extent),Michael bell with motivator, Barry Hills with Maids Causeway, Dermot Weld with Nightime, Royer Dupre with Pride etc,etc,etc. Coolmore dont always buy up the best horses that they’ve bred from their stock (eg. they have not brought out one johannesburg colt so far yet they have had alot of RoG flops), wheras ive always found that the agha khan for example is a self contained unit, the only people that really appear to have real success with agha khan sires is the agha khan (because he has some really strong broodmares), smaller buyers dont usually have access to such strong mares.
You would think that the SH horses would have big odds attached but they seldom do and when they do they usually have them for a reason, a lot of the time they are agha khan horses in the oxx/stoute yards etc and i’ll usually go against them. I must admit that there hasnt been as many of them about this year as previous years with smaller stables. You would be surprised by the betting prices you can get on northern dancer sires (especially first croppers), had guilia at 50-1 to beat a godolphin kings best colt last year, easy. Had Johannesburg Jack to win a rather weak maiden this year at 50-1, also had Ishi Adiva, a close second at 100-1 in the supersprint. Thats why i love ND.<br>
Max – Stable Form is not something that ever really worries me a great deal as i think that a stable is only as good as the horses in it, in the same way as a jockey (crapo rides aside) is only as good as the horses he rides. According to the stable form sixties icon was never going to win the leger, but in truth he was a very good horse in a stable that was largely out of form, in the same mould as sir percy, in my opinion, marcus tregoning doesnt have the strongest of stables anyway, but thats not to say he doesnt have any good horses, he does and sir percy is one of them. Worry not max.
DJ-What is regulation speed? Tactical speed is something which i have never seen measured, and it differs from top speed ratings. Hurricane run is a horse who in my opinion has a very high cruising speed but lacks the tactical speed of a top level horse in slow group1s over 1m4f (let alone 1m2f). He was lucky at ascot but unlucky at longchamp, he is usually at his best in races where he can outstay the opposition and at his worst in races where a turn of foot is called for.
Sir percy wont have the faster pace and faster horse that he had in the guineas and he wont have the extra 2furlongs which he had to overcome in the derby, this will be easy for him. The turn of foot he showed in the derby is something which looks beyonds the capabilities of anything else in this field at 1m2f (Araafa would possibly beat him at 1mile).
Agreed clivex. It is the ability to go up and down through the gears.
Ive always said Sir Percy would be a horse for the champion stakes and that i wouldnt touch him in the arc as it was a waste of a good horse. I think tregoning has always had this race in mind for him and that the arc chat was more of a publicity stunt.
To me there are two things which can make a horse good – travelling (the ability to stay at harsh gallops that will test the stamina of weaker horses), needs a fast paced race+ tactical speed (almost topspeed if you like, but is not only the ability to cut everything down in the last couple of furlongs at a slow pace, but also the ability to get out of a troublesome position as soon as the gap appears).
Sir percy has shown his ability to handle a harsh gallop in the guineas and tactical speed in the derby, now he is going to attempt something which will play to all his strengths. Its easy money….
Agreed that HR and pride are likely to still be at their peak, but i think that their best efforts wont be good enough, i am a massive fan of hurricane run and am the first to say that sir percy won a weak derby but this race is 1m2f, hurricane cant afford a slow gallop and i reckon sir percy will stay a fast gallop at 1m2f. Hurricane Run has never been a horse with a turn of foot, and pride is not quick enough. I am generally not a great sir percy fan myself, but he has great 1m2f horse written all over him and it is his race to throw away. I wouldnt touch anything else in the race.
If the race was over 1m4f id go Hurricane Run, but its not and its has to be sir percy.
For me betting (not so much in group1s), breeding is the first thing i look at, then form, jockeys etc. in the hope of getting a value horse to beat the ratings. To me it is one of the most important guides as to how good a horse is likely to be.
I have watched all the different lines, not stats (as stats can be misleading) and northern dancer eclipses everything by some way (with colts i generally dont touch his fillies, despite alexandra and ouija board im not really a fan), i would find it very hard to beleive that shirley heights even comes close to matching northern dancer on strike rate/prize money etc. because almost everything ive seen of his is total rubbish. You will occasionally get a horse like Sir Percy who is good but when i look at anything by darshaan, slip anchor, mark of esteem, josr algahoud etc. i bet against them every time and it almost always works. Obviously with fillies its different i do actually prefer fillies that are Markofesteem/darshaan etc, and i actually tipped puggy on here because of her MOE/Machiavellian breeding and clear ability. I realise that the presence of coolmore on european breeding (putting almost all the best mares against their first crops and other sires) has an impact on why northern dancer is so good but ive not seen anything else as impressive.
I agree that we need these lesser sires as you dont want everything to be northern dancer/mr prospector. And i wouldnt like to see a whole field of nd/mr p crosses, what im saying is that these are my favorites to go on and if i was to buy a horse that is what i would go for. From what ive seen of the shirley heights line i wouldnt advise anyone to touch it, at the price a horse costs it has at least a 90% chance of being money down the drain.
I am not saying that Shirley Heights are mega bucks, they arent (and with good reason), but if you were to compare the price of Darshaan or markofesteem to the likes of Jo’hannesburg or van nistlerooy, id go for jo’burg or van nistlerooy everytime.
It will be interesting what sir percys stud value is but i dont reckon it will be great as i think hes a horse with a good attitude more so than breeding.
Do you by any chance work for the sales team at the agha khan stud sal? lol
Sal
<br> <br>Classic Winner <br>——————————————————————————–<br>I’m not suggesting George is physically soft. I’m saying he has not proved himself to have the resilience and consistency of a true champion.
He’s far from a Giant’s Causeway or Rock of Gibraltar – yet.
I am a fan of giants causeway and to a lesser extent the rock of gibraltar, and i reckon they would both struggle to pass george, he’s far to fast for anything to match him in a battle.
I dont reckon theres any point in arguing how good he is, as I said before the QE2 anyone who doubts him is free to lose their money on such notions. There isnt another 130+ miler in training at the moment let alone one with georges turn of foot. The rest can run the race of their lives and they wont beat him. If he wants to win he’ll win, the breeders cup mile is just another stroll in the park for him.
I agree with trackside that the only thing that will beat george is george. It is crystal clear to me that he is not only the best miler on the planet, but the best miler we’ve seen in some time. I’d like to see if he can beat the yanks at what the yanks do best. Beating them in a turf mile is too easy.
On the subject of Shirley heights, etc personally wouldnt ever choose to breed anything off them, their offspring are generally inconsistant, unless you hit an occasional star. Dalakhani was a shirley heights mr. p cross but generally, shirley heights are very hit and miss and miss and miss.
At the cost of a shirley heights sire its easier to just go with northern dancer who is the proven better line. Shirley heights works well for stamina broodmares however but overall im not a fan.
All the others are generally not seen as much over here but seattle slew has been done to death in the states and to no real major significance. Roberto knocks up the occasional decent type but not enough.
Consistency is the key, and northern dancer is the best.
One northern dancer sire who hasnt been used enough is fairy king, he has given us Falbrav and aussie supersire Encosta De Lago
Kings best, like his sire kingmambo, can sire some good fillies, and obviously with proclamation he can hit a good colt. But i generally find that his colts are quite poor (in terms of consistency,like a lot of mr prospectors colts) and i found last year that it was easier to bet against his first crop, he has some nice fillies like queens best and la mottie (not top class but consistant).
Antonius Pius is a horse i always liked, he had bags of ability but was quirky as you like, he is by the almighty danzig (sire of all things quirky but talented) and hails from a very strong female line. I’d say if you were to breed off him, however, you really want a colt. Danzig fillies are a general nightmare and i usually stay clear of them.
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I reckon rabatash, on form and breeding looks almost certain to stay 7f (and a mile next year), kinane rode him in the phoenix as if he wouldnt stay, and gave everything else first run, which i didnt really understand, but he came out next time and won going away. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if he goes for the 2,000/french 2,000 guineas next year. Ive followed him every race, as Wachmans heavily backed debutante horses are usually worth sticking with.
My internet is down and am just in an internet cafe which has the racing post site blocked but i think Hes a decoy is by In the wings, which could make him a horse for the racing post trophy (if teofilo doesnt go), it also means he should make a better 3yo but next year he may struggle in group1 company with Teofilo about.
I was following a Wachman horse last year called Heatseeker and he seemed to just vanish, i dont know whats happened to him.
I think George is an absolute cert for the breeders Cup mile and has a very good chance in the Classic, they just need to keep him switched off. I think its something very good for horse racing that they are trying for it rather than just taking the easy option. I’d be happy to back george at 5/1 to turn over the yanks, at the end of the day there is nothing certain to win the classic and george stands out as an exceptional miler (arguably a sprinter/miler) who just maybe might step up to 1m2f, which will surely enhance his stud potential as he will have shown serious ability at a mile and both sides of a mile, with varying underfoot conditions. I just hope they keep him in training at 4, even though they will probably be losing money in doing so.
trackside528
<br>Classic Winner <br>——————————————————————————–
<br>——————————————————————————–<br>Quote: from Alexander on 10:39 pm on Oct. 9, 2006<br>Your missing something special <br>He’s A Decoy
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Definitiely the best 2yo Wachman has (for what its worth), and looked promising last time out in France… might want more at this point though…
(Edited by trackside528 at 3:19 pm on Oct. 10, 2006)
<br>Dont forget Rabatash!
<br>Shadow Leader Posted on 10:48 pm on Oct. 9, 2006 <br>I just can’t agree with so many people about HRE – I think he is a fantastic colt; a big, strong type who looks like he should mature well from 2 to 3 (IMO, naturally). I never, ever back 2yos for Classics but broke that rule earlier in the season when taking 33 about HRE before Ascot for the 2000 Gns next season, I was so taken with his debut. Apart from his disappointing run at Royal Ascot I haven’t seen anything since that would make me wish I hadn’t backed him for next year.
HRE is not a big horse, hes actually a very small powerfully built horse which really would make him a better 2yo than a 3yo. Its true that you dont want a horse to grow from 2 to 3 but to just fill out, but you generally want them to be a good size going out to winter. He is clearly a nice horse but he has not shown the exceptional ability that george washington showed at 2 and I find him to be a hard horse to place for next year.
I reckon that van nistlerooy may possibly sire smart horses, not just decent early ones, Storm Cats generally powerfully built horses are very good early on because they are physically so further forward and train off at three, where their quirks are a little more noticable, but with second generation Storm cats you can sometimes have the quirkiness bred out of them, look at giants causeways first crop. Johannesburgs first crop has thrown up some smart horses too (despite the fact that coolmore have clearly focused their main attention to the rock of gibraltar first crop, which currently looks like a "D’oh" manouvre, with the exception of eagle mountain ive not seen a smart one) with mr prospector crosses, Hamoody and Scat Daddy in particular. Aslo, Rabatash (out of a marju mare) looks to have considerable potential.
Generally, Northern Dancer sires, and particularly Storm cat off shoots go very well with mr prospector mares, and have serious scope. Saddlers Wells (stamina sires dont tend to hit their best till 3) but I beleive that the main purpose of the 2yo season is to train a horse for tactical speed, and if you have a good stamp of a horse at two, he just needs to train on, which is more down to the horses temperament than anything.
I generally prefer northern dancer for producing colts and mr prospector for producing fillies. Obviously its not as black and white as that. But my favorite horses are colts sired by northern dancer out of mr prospector mares as they are almost always good. Shamardal, Galileo, Motivator, Refuse to bend etc are a few typical examples.
davidjohnson Posted on 1:33 pm on Oct. 10, 2006 <br>On what piece of form does Hamoody have any chance whatsoever? I’m really keen to be against this. He won what is imo the weakest juvenile pattern race all year. Bodes Galaxy has been beaten further in races like the Gimcrack and this field is better than the Gimcrack. Add in the fact that Hamoody failed to settle that day and I think it means taking a lot of what Chapple-Hyam has said (and he likes to say a lot) on trust.
I am expecting a big run from hamoody, on breeding and form he has class coming from out of his ears and has 2000 guineas written all over him, granted his goodwood win wasnt the best group2 ive ever seen but he did everything wrong and still won, showing some good battling qualities at the end (having pulled his head off for every single yard), make no mistake, he’ll love the extra furlong and if dettori switches him off early (which should be easier with the extra furlong) i see him winning quite easily. He’s been my Dewhurst/Guineas horse all season and I’m not going to desert him now, underestimate him at your peril.
I do really like teofilo, and think he has epsom written all over him, but hes a big rangy type at what must be his absolute minimum trip and must be somewhat vulnerable to an improving guineas type with more tactical speed, he did well to beat HRE last time but its all the top 2yos now.
I dont see halicarnassus winning, i backed him last time at 33/1 but thought he was lucky in what was not a great race.
Sir Percy has to be the cert of the season in the Champion stakes, Im a massive Hurricane Run fan but HR is an out and out galloper and at 1m2f i dont reckon Hurricane run can match Sir Ps tacical speed. Or anything else in the field (dont see Araafa fully seeing out the trip) matching him including pride and Ouija board.
I havent seen the rest of the line ups as my computer is down at the moment but if puggy is out i’ll be on her too.
Best value sires of the minute are probably Refuse to bend (Saddlers Wells/Gulch) at Darley for £20,000 is a similar type of sire on breeding to Galileo but was obviously a much speedier horse (and quirkier with it), should knock up colts and fillies and go with almost any broodmare.
Coolmore have loads of value sires depending on how you breed them, Storm Cats offshoots tend to go well with mr prospector fillies, so van nistlerooy (who cost 6million when bought and so regardless of what he done on the track was obviously physically a good early developer) is great value at £6,500, with a low priced mr propector filly (by titus livius etc) you could in theory get an awesome horse for less than what you might expect to pay. Shamardals mother was a 7f all weather performer by machiavellian and he only cost £38,000 but had class coming out of his ears. Hamoody looks the same.
thedarkknight Posted on 8:43 am on Oct. 7, 2006 <br>Saeed Bin Suroor would be a standout pick for me.
I have to agree 100% barely any of last years acquisitions (some smart) have seen a racetrack this year (bringing them straight from dubai to a freezing cold newmarket probably didnt help but even still), plus they killed electrocutionist in training. Woeful.
Dermot Weld (irish 1,000 gns winner aside) hasnt really looked the force of the past few years aswell.
Stoute hasnt had much of a stable this year but give him his dues (im generally not a fan) he has done well with what hes had.
I also reckon o’briens 2yos have not looked amazing so far this year. Holy Roman Emperor and Eagle mountain are the best but even they look hard to place for next year.
I think Noseda and Chapple-hyam have made some shrewd breeze up buys and look to have some very smart 2yos for next year.
I dont know if anyone here ever listens to william hill radio but the commentary and pre-race build up that Lord Budden and co. give is far more insightful than anything the bbc could ever possibly muster, unless they are extremely displeasing to the eye i think they should be doing the commentary.
As for Clare Balding, she only appears intelligent in the company of complete muppets, but i cant remember a single time when she has ever pointed out something that i didnt already see as being basic knowledge. Also, she only ever seems to focus on the top few in the betting (which seems a bbc policy) and writes everything else off.
