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Ive got an example for you grasshopper (on the flat), look at how the rival fortunes of Bulwark (fast) and Sgt Cecil (slow above 1m6f) fluctuate with the pace of each race.
On fast ground a horse who typically doesnt stay and is better over shorter will generally find it easier to keep momentum going as there is no ground resistance and so his stamina is not fully tested. On softer conditions that horse is A LOT less likely to stay.
At a slow gallop it will also let a speedier horse play his turn of foot against horses with more stamina and less speed who will look flat footed by comparison, because the speedy horse will again not have his stamina tested by the slow gallop.
When you put these two factors together, easy pace and fast ground a horse can stay outside their compass to the extent of furlongs (and were talking seconds here, not tens of seconds).
It was these two factors and some precision timing by martin dwyer with a lack of any group1 opposition on the day that allowed sir percy to win (by playing his speed from the back ofd a sedate paceon fast ground) by a whisker.
The class of the opposition that day, the winning margin, the style of ride, the fact that his guineas run aswell as his derby run suggested he would be seen to better light at 1m2f (it was only speed he lacked against george washington, and he had to be run so as not test his stamina at epsom) together with the fact that hes actually a 1m2f horse on breeding is why i think hes a 1m2f horse.
Its his form over 1 mile and the fact that he won a1m4f race that was set up for a 1m2f horse in the style of a 1m2f horse with a rating of 120 that makes me think he isnt going to handle a fast paced 1m4f on soft ground with 10lbs improvement necessary to make the grade.
The fact that sir percy handled a fast pace in the guineas for 1mile doesnt mean that he can handle the same pace for an extra four furlongs and accelerate at the end and in fact its his performance in the guineas that strengthens my opinion that he will be seen in his true light at the arc.
I apologise if i come across as patronising but to me this is basic form assessment.
I agree with you grasshopper that it doesnt matter as much on the jumps, however i find that most of the tactics used to guage flat horses to be useless on the jumps.
In theory it should matter even though they are all slower for having jumps, but its the way that the national hunt season operates that dictates how the form translates. As in my opinion it is more a season of training and preperation than breeding and ability.
For example, if you take two identical horses with the exact same stamina limitations, but one is better prepped than the other, that horse can take two or three lengths off its rival at every obstacle, then that horse will win a ten obstacle race by at least 20 lengths.
For this reason i do not bet on jumps unless i hear something as its so hard to tell what is prepped as i see non triers/unprepped horses all the time. This is obviously just a matter of perspective and personal preference and not an attempt to get into the jumps/flat debate, as obviously everyone will prefer one to the other.
I am a massive George Washington fan, through and through and will back him to beat anything at a mile as i did today but its clear that aragorn is not the same horse as last year and i will always respect the chance of any son of giants causeway running at a mile,regardless of where they are from, gorella however i dont respect as much.
One horse who i would like to see george face at churchill downs is the godolphin horse DISCREET CAT who is another clearly high class animal. His seasonal debut romp in the states was something special. If GW and DC are both in form it could be the race of the year.
I totally agree with what EC is trying to say.
It is a FACT that in a standrard time on fast ground a 1m2f horse can win 1m4f races, look at the finish of the king george for example, electrocutionist nearly won it and he was a 1m2f horse (or are people now going to question that), he beat hearts cry who is a very good 1m4f horse, it was only the sheer class of hurricane run that beat him for toe.
There was nothing of anywhere that class at epsom this year…
"But sir percy beat Dylan Thomas and he has went on to win 2 group1s?
Yes, Sir Percy beat Dylan Thomas, but so did Dragon dancer, who (despite not being injured since) has since proved himself to be listed/low group class at best. Not only that but dylan thomas routed absolutely dragon dancer at the curragh, despite the fact that he was fading to him at epsom. So what does that say? Perhaps that Dylan Thomas was under par at epsom? Or is that just impossible to believe.
"Sir percy was powering his way through horses of equal class at epsom".
For anyone who really thinks that – Oh Dear!
It is all well and good blindly supporting a horse because it has the title "Derby winner" (because lets face it, if he’d thrown down the same performance in the king edward or GP Du Paris we wouldnt even be having this conversation).
I can see that you are havng trouble understanding the concept of pace (and probably wonder how it has any relevance in racing), so i’ll explain like this, George Washington is a sprinter/miler yet if they cantered the first mile of the derby then hed win guaranteed because hes the fastest horse, sir percy is a 1m2f horse and so to a lesser exagerated extent this is what he done.
If you still cant grasp that then i wont keep going but for your own good people please dont put your mortage on him handling a fast gallop on soft ground at longchamp because he is a 1m2f horse and it wont happen.
I do realise that if he does win at a fast gallop then i will look quite the fool and please feel free to take the mick but i am condfident that its not going to happen. He can only win a slow arc.
George is a character but you cant say he has a bad racing temperament, o’brien has aways said that george considers himself to be better than anything else and that is something you want in a race horse, everyhthing he has ever done on the track backs that up. Even at goodwood he was pulling the whole way.<br>May be the sort to struggle against a GREAT front runner but lets face it, hes top drawer.
As far as his breeding career goes, anyone who breeds a horse from the danzig/danehill or storm cat lines and thinks they are guaranteed a straightforward horse, probably doesnt have the money to breed a horse from george, as they are probably broke after a failed investment in chocolate fireguards. How often do you see a danzig horse with a good attitude?
I wouldnt say that its really a weak season for milers, there isnt a great deal of strength from the older opposition this year but the two 2000 guineas winners are both very good horses, with george being something special.
Lets just hope he stays in training at 4.
He was never in doubt, as soon as it was clear they werent pulling him out it was always going to be the gorgeous one.
Has silenced his doubters for the second time this season.
The lesson – Never bet against pure class!
I think george will probably get pulled out, why would they risk him. The qe2 is not the be all and end all of racing and the breeders cup mile (you would hope) may be better conditions in kentucky this year.
O’brien actually has quite a good record in recent years with highly strung horses in america. Antonius Pius in the breeders cup mile and powerscourt in the arlington million, both very highly strung and both excelled in america.
In georges potential absence im stuck between librettist and araafa.
I do respect deep impact but i dont fear him as its the acid test for him facing proper horses for the first time and every horse in this field has strengths and weaknesses. I saw him today on the bbc and he ceratainly looks like a nice horse, but there is only one horse who has form that ties in with deep impact who has been over here and he was beaten at ascot, Is this deep impact going to be another "he’d have been better with a prep run"? Sunday silence horses are generally at their best on faster conditions and i wouldnt be wanting testing conditions for him as part of a general a rule, especially against horses like hurricane run and shirocco who love it. Nevertheless, just like hearts cry hes a very good horse and i do respect his chance. Good luck zorro.
You are right though zorro, the pace of the race is the is the MOST important factor. Ive been saying this all along. If its fast you can guarantee hurricane run will be involved in the finsh/ probably rail link too. If its a standard gallop shirocco will almost definitely be in the mix (but it’ll be anyone’s race) and if its really slow then sir percy (and possibly pride) will be involved, i think.
Dragon dancer may have finished right up with sir percy but how can he be rated the same as a horse who was going past him, not to mention that all his previous and subsequent form suggests that he is overrated for his performance epsom, if anything (in the absence of injury).
I have not said that this years arc will definitely be a fast clip (only that i would like it to be to make a good race), i think that in the absence of a pace setter for rail link or hurricane run it will almost definitely be slow. But if sir percy wins a slow arc it will not prove much to me that i dont already know. It is a fact that when you slow a race down it will almost always go to the fastest horse, who i agree is sir percy, my point has always been that i dont think sir percy has the stamina for a fast arc (especially if conditions are testing).
The world rankings do not go on an average, they go on what the best performance has been by a horse on a track this year. Hurricane Run for example was rated 130ish last year for his great arc win but has only been able to muster a 126 rating this year, which means his rating at present is 126. He is at his best at 1m4f on soft ground at a fast pace which (like bago last year) he has not had so far this season. Which for me makes his king george win from behind on fast ground at a slow pace far more impressive.
David Jr ran to his rating early in the season in dubai but looked terrible on both starts this summer. Whatever he has done he has still acheived that rating however.
Sir Percy ran well enough behind George Washington at newmarket but not more than his rating suggests and if you go by the form that the rest of the field was in at the time of the derby (dylan thomas was in good form but his subsequent best form has involved different racing tactics coming from off a harder pace seems to be his forte), its hard to give him much more than his rating suggests for that partciular race. If sir percy wins wins the champion stakes with a rating of 130 then that will be his rating for the season.
Ive not yet seen the rating for dylan thomas and ouija board’s irish champion performances but i think that the racing post haveover assessed them, they have used the proximity of alexander goldrun as a reference point but looking at dylan thomas that day i didnt think he had the same action as on his irish derby win, ground perhaps, but he looked better in the irish derby not just by the winning margin.
Also i didnt think shirocco deserved a racing post 129 rating for beating munsef 3lengths in the jockey club stakes (a race which notoriously attracts underprepped horses on the way to the coronation cup etc) Im glad that the world rankings put hurricane run 1lb ahead of him.
But it goes to show that ratings arent always correct they are reallly just a guide through human perception which is so often flawed.
If sir percy wins an arc 4 secs fast i’ll say hes as good as hurricane run but i dont think sir percy will ever be a 1m4f horse. He won the derby, yes, but a standard time on fast ground, im sure that at the gallop carved out by heliostatic he wouldnt have had a chance against the dylan thomas/fallon masterclass at the curragh. His current rating looks pretty honest, remember that he has not yet been to 1m2f (where i think he could be a 130 horse) and David Jrs rating is from his impressive dubai run, not the other two rusty looking disappointments.
I thought last year that Sir percy, Horatio Nelson and Heatseeker looked like potentially great 1m2f horses (with the two latter they have not had the chance), dylan thomas also came on from his 2yo form greatly and emerged as a very serious 1m2f horse, however the lack of strength in this years 1m4f crop and the higher profile of many of the 1m4f races has seen most of the good 1m2f horses stepping up in distance against horses of much lower class. Sir Percy stands out to me as being one of these and so for me to bet on sir percy to win a slow arc is like betting on this years arc to be a poor one, but the arc is one of my favorite races and that is something i just cant do. Everything about this season so far suggests that a poor gallop is almost certain in the arc but im hopeful that the arc may save whats by and large been a poor season. The two best travellers (hurricane and rail link) are not front runners and i cant see anything else in the field favouring a good gallop, thus i cant see anything in the field wanting to set the pace, and so hopefully a pacesetter is fielded tro save the race.
If the arc was 1m2f i would bank on sir percy everytime, i think he’d hump hurricane run and dylan thomas, who i dont think could match his tactical speed.
However, i always look to the arc as a race with a harsh gallop where the true 1m4f horses stamp their authority over the pretenders who have picked up a few weak 1m4f races through the year. i am hoping (like every year) that this years arc will be a good one.
I have drifted off the subject though, i think that the ratings look pretty realistic, sir percy hasnt really acheived a great deal in terms of what the form is worth, you must realise that despite the name "derby" and the prize money involved it is a race at an awkward time on an awkward track with specific terms, other horses (like dylan thomas, david jr + even the much hyped ouija board) have thrown in better performances in less prestigious group1s throught the year.
I agree with trackside about georges position in coolmore. They have plenty of danehills at stud there, incuding rock of gibraltar, choisir, mozart and the recently retired oratorio (to name only a few). You generally find that its the average group1 winners that find their way to stud quicker, i also find that michael tabor is more willing to keep a horse in training than magnier (high chaparral and hurricane run could have easily went to stud at 3 with their head held high). However, magnier kept hawkwing in training at 4 where a great lockinge win was acheived with him.
It is worth noting that although george washington was clearly prepped for the guineas, he was green as grass that day (and looked like he wanted the rail-as many highly strung horses do), nowhere near the form of his phoenix and national stakes wins.
I dont think we’ve seen George Washington do half of what he can do and neither does o’brien and magnier etc. (which probably explains why he wasnt retired after the irish guineas). With the more he drifts in the betting the more of a bet he becomes. Although there are some quite nice horses in the qe2 line up but none can match the potential of george, whether potential pays on the day is a different matter….
I can see where your coming from with tarteel, and the racing posts poor race assessment* seems to agree she would have been closer with a clear run, she definitely looks like a horse on the upgrade and should lose her maiden tag soon, but after posting a 68 rating on her debut and following up with an ‘unlucky’ 80 rating she doesnt look the sort to ever make into something specia, even with a haydock win (the step up to 1mile should suit her)l.
Where i am coming from with puggy is not that shes the next russian rythym but that after a nicely bred filly makes an 80 rated debut, won with a nice turn of foot nearly4secs slow (more like a 6f event than a 7f) she should come on from it almost guaranteed. And whether tarteel was unlucky or not on her second start you must recognise that puggy did do what she was asked and you cant really expect much more than that. From the audio commentary she was always going best.
*The racing post say that PUGGY wants to step up to 1mile, yet i dont know how they can say that after 1 run when the race was run more like a 6f event, so even if she won going away you would still think that she would want a properly run 7f next time before saying she should step up.
I agree with EC that Motivator should never have stepped down in trip to 1m2f, even though he did still perform very creditably. Also, I think that unlike motivator Sir percy will almost certainly be a superstar in 1m2f races as thats the sort of horse hes always looked like, didnt have the speed to go with george washington in the guineas (yet credible) and was ridden like a 1mile/1m2f horse punching above his distance in the derby (luckily for him he never met a decent 1m4f horse that day). I do however think that Sir percy could possibly win the arc if its a snails pace as he probably has the best turn of foot in the field, yet, if its run as a true 1m4f race like last years i dont think he’ll even go close.
Motivators derby win however eclipses sir percys, Michael Bell specifically threatened to pull motivator out if the ground was good to firm (luckily so did racing numpties godolphin with dubawi), so they forced the epsom officials to water the track. <br>In doing this, they ruled out the chance of speed horses (like dubawi ? and oratorio) (like sir percy) coming from off the pace, because their stamina would be tested on the uphill parts of the course, and their speed would be blunted somewhat towards the end. Motivator therefore had his derby set up to be a test of a proper 1m4f horse and he humped them in a similar time to sir percys but on worse ground How weak the oppositon was is debatable, as gypsy king died, oratorio and dubawi were better horses over shorter. walkinthepark injured himself in the irish derby and has never recatured that form, motivator didnt just win quite well though he slaughtered them, <br>His end placing in the arc is not a true reflection of his actual performance however as the last place you want to be in a race run 4secs fast on soft ground is shadowing the leader (scorpion- hurricane runs pace setter, with hurricane well held to the rear), yet murtagh (in a poor judgement of pace and tacics) held him there, and even though he then kicked for home too soon and found that motivator was knacked a furlong out, he was only beaten by four very smarthorses who had been raced behind him (bago and hurricane came right from the back). If sir percy tried to hold the same position at the same clip hed have tailed off.
In all the pre race hype about visindar for the derby (fabre making out that he was shergar reborn), i was always looking for a horse that looked capable of throwing up a 125ish rating to possibly beat him, i was disappointed long before the race when the only two i saw were septimus (which was soon ruled out by the prospect of firm ground) and dylan thomas (who looked to have a stamina question on breeding and was subsequently murtagh’ed). <br>However the derby always looked like being a one horse race (visindar), with general no-hopers filling the field (halabek an sixties icon looked like having future potential but were nowhere near prepped enough) , the only horse with any real potential to throwing up something decent looked like visindar, visindar subsequently ran an epic stinker, and the no hopers went to the line in slow motion and the guineas horse cut his way threw them to win by his whiskers.
Not a great derby, not a great derby winner, not a great 1m4f prospect, if sir percy wins the arc in a decent time then i’ll take the abuse but i dont think it looks anywhere near realistic. Tregoning must be praying for a blackpool donley to set the pace, because a pace like the last 2 years should see him being turned over like a Stuffed Pig.
Oh dear, i find it very amusing that anyone thinks sir percy could have beaten motivator in last years derby, personally i dont think hed have finished ahead of walkinthepark. Will explain more fully later as in work. But ponder this for now sir percy fans – why was sir percy rated 121 for his derby win, yet motivator was rated 129+.
I dont make it to the track much as im a graduate of the great british betting shop and my nearest track growing up was down royal about 60 miles away. Since then ive moved to the swindon area and got the internet, I always intend to go to the lockinge and ascot etc. but never seem to get round to it. Better organisation is necessary…
My luckiest winner was probably my first winner in hindsight, but i had one earlier in the year on CLASSIC PUNCH and MONTPELIER, i went to put £10 e/w on at 25s and 16s on the william hill site, but when i tried to place the bet the odds changed to 33s on classic punch and (with the figure of £20 for each bet in my head) i accidentally went £20 e/w each horse.<br>I was livid with myself for a few minutes but i was made up when Classic Punch won and montpelier was 3rd though. Sometimes stupidity really pays…lol
