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Sincere condolences to all connected to Kachy a brilliant horse I took to from the first time I saw him run.
A sad loss to racing and all who loved racing.Pondering?
first may I assume ‘mayout’ should read layout?
care to share more information on what you are seeking?
but can tell you the ‘mix’ of the polytrack surface differs from one venue to another.
find it hard to understand why Kempton being r/h would have any significance,except if a horse had preferences.While I can appreciate we have different ways of approaching the same basic problem of finding profitable methods to make our betting pay dividends the idea of using ‘form in the book over recent form’ for me is akin to catching a falling knife by the blade.Past performances can be used to assess the horses ‘usual’ grade one might expect to find them running in however for many & varied reasons things change and using such form in my opinion isn’t logical unless a clear sign can be pointed to that an upturn in fortunes is possible.
Best wishes with your enterprise and hopefully you will expand on your idea,look forward to reading more.
good luck to allWith storm Dennis lashing the country wasn’t at all confident that racing would be on but Kempton has survived and goes ahead.I know I’ve said previously that I only go for the higher class races which in general is perfectly accurate because that’s where my par values,to qualify for consideration as an investment,are usually registered.However there are a few occasions when a horse can meet the standard outside my typical hunting ground.Today is such an occasion with WILEY POST putting up career high numbers when successful at this venue about a month ago.A relative latecomer to a/w racing only debuting in late October ’19 where he ran respectably but without troubling the principals.The experience wasn’t lost on the gelding running much better next time at Lingfield after a month off and maybe being given too much to do having being held up in rear.Reappeared after almost two months off and ridden more prominently decisively put his rivals to the sword last month and although was having his lead cut back in the final furlong never looked in any danger or coming under serious pressure.This will probably be his most severe test on the a/w to date with rivals on falling marks being eligible after contesting higher grade races,the selection is also running off his highest ever handicap,so because of this have played e/w @ 11/2 last night.
good luck to allAlthough I have a rare NH bet at Cheltenham I’m flat nowadays.
But I can tell you Badsworth Boy from the mighty (at the time) Dickinson stable was the last I can recall,yes I bet NH too at this time,to win successive Champion Chases aged 8,9 & 10.How would I compare them?
Tell the truth I would say Badsworth was the better as he was campaigned in handicaps as well as conditions events and regularly gave a stone and more to rivals before making them look plodders.
But they are generations apart as Badsworth Boy’s heyday was the early 1980’s so things have moved on.
Who will come out on top in this years Champion is an intriguing question which I shall leave to you NH guys to sort out ….I will just sit back and enjoy the race.
good luck to allNot for the first time Stuart Williams has set a puzzle by entering more than one runner in a race.While most support has been for his senior stablemate my money is going on STREET PARADE to record his first win in almost a year.As an April foal it’s surprising he did so well as a juvenile however having five races in two and a half months probably told in the end with the gelding not showing up well in the final contests.Bounced back on 3yo campaign seasonal debut but overall disappointing,aimed at some valuable races.Perhaps it’s interesting to note all his best efforts came in contests with similar prize money to tonight,10k-13k.A class issue with him being aimed too high?Both of his a/w outings to date have been at Chelmsford and makes his tapeta debut tonight but they were spread over four months with wind surgery inbetween.The first wasn’t bad at all off top weight btn by Furious who looks an a/w specialist.The most recent at the turn of the year the selection was ridden patiently and never put under any real pressure as the leaders had flown.However what he did do was produce numbers suggesting better things to come.
good luck to allNot an easy thing to do …..admit to an error,but I believe that’s what I made in deciding to expand my betting beyond the class 3 events & above in the sprint division I’ve specialized in the last few years.Although the expansion to the lower grades provided a fair share of winners the overall return on money invested was disappointing.This being because many were well punted from already short prices and bookies not allowing any leeway that could provide a worthwhile return,so as from today I shall be dropping this part of my punting which will I’m sorry to say until the new turf season kicks off reduce the number of horses put forward for consideration.
As long as my calculations are correct to date I’ve posted 25 horses….to a £1 bet @ SP (winners only) making £35.62 profit.
(I’m sure someone will tell me if I got that wrong …lol)
However I intend to continue with my latest venture using races from my local track over all distances class 3 & above when they qualify.To date this has produced two bets and two winners. SP’s 9/4 & 6/1
Also will continue to look for new ways to make profitable investments on the sport we all love.
good luck to allJust thought a comment was required for the Listed handicap sprint I posted on yesterday.
The winner Rsumaat surprised me somewhat having the fortitude to keep on strongly,although the numbers registered were below previous ones recorded and now finds himself back to his career high mark.Probably forced back into conditions events making life much tougher.
Runner up Blitzkrieg…I didn’t really know what to expect as he’s been tried over distances up to 10f but as this was an easier contest than others he’s tried perhaps it’s a class issue?
Unfortunately this showing won’t leave a lot of leeway in his mark and maybe forced up in class.
The third and fourth I think I covered earlier,although may write more of them at a later date.
Angel Alexander will come on for the run,was slightly hindered early on being buffeted around,but I’m not putting that up as an excuse.Quite simply looked in need of it and will be watching with interest how he fares at the carnival.
Hope if you had a bet you made money from the day.Despite what’s gone before I don’t think the Listed handicap sprint is as straight forward as it seems with Ekhtiyaar undoubtedly holding claims,but in my book they are not as clear cut as the bookies would have one believe.Although I have to admit he put up very good numbers last time and looks to have been improved after switching stables in Dec 2018 … to my mind he’s been beating up inferior rivals in handicaps which weren’t as strong as this contest.
Roulston Scar like the favourite put up similar numbers on debut for new connections last time and as a late March foal it wasn’t surprising took time to lose his maiden tag.Has come on leaps & bounds since and a real threat.
Rusumaat exceeded himself against Equilateral & Waady on his last run registering quite good numbers but in this field despite his rating just doesn’t look up to the task.
The most interesting runner in the line up for me is last years Ayr Gold Cup winner Angel Alexander who was progressing quickly toward the end of last year registering good numbers in two of his last three races,the sequence halted on heavy ground in France.I’m tempered in putting him forward as a selection by his lengthy absence and scant evidence to show he’s capable of producing a run good enough to be involved in the finish.Following a winter break 2018/19 of 188 days ran well on return but faded in the final furlong.
So a watching brief for me and hope to have provided food for thought.
good luck to allGreeting to all,
Today putting forward a horse that’s drifted since betting opened last night and still seems to be friendless in the markets.Well I’ve said thank you very much and taken a price (BOG) about JAN VAN HOOF at Southwell today.Why the drift?,I can’t really explain it except perhaps it’s down to the geldings debut on this surface.Although the selection is into the veteran stage as regard age he hasn’t many miles on the clock as his career is littered with periods of inactivity.Kept to the minimum trip since his latest return from a break this step up to 6f will be of no concern nor will be a 6lb rise in the handicap as he’s run well over further and won off a higher mark this time last year.His latest visit to the track was a most impressive display coming from next to last and cruising past the opposition without being touched with the whip.Find it hard to believe JVF will not be the shake up and gain at least a place.
All the research I carried out while at RaceCaller has paid off with some quite spectacular wins in some of the toughest handicaps in the calendar but what it also showed was that it could be applied to all distances.For a couple of years I’ve toyed with the idea ‘could I make it work for just my local track’?
Perhaps I should point out at this juncture I’ve expanded to a newly researched selection process which also takes in lower grade sprint handicaps and runs in parallel to my original method.
The original data collection concerned only class 3 races and above,where form is the most reliable,and tracked the horses meeting the required value in their next race…logging the results I found handicaps to be the most profitable and best way to go as condition races can’t be relied on to be run at a true pace.The conclusions reached pointed to it being a viable selection method although I discovered one doesn’t automatically take all the numbers at face value and a look behind the scenes is called for so not always will the horse that registered the highest numbers last time out will be the selection in a particular contest.
Have started looking at same races run at Dunstall Park (class 3 and above) to compile a new data base on results from this track alone and as the number of meetings is limited I’m unsure whether enough reliable data can be amassed to come to any firm conclusions.Only time will tell but I’m hopeful.
good luck to allFREEDOM!
My sentiment to those that continue to bleat …….shut up and get over it …WE ARE OUT OF THE EU!
Sorry just needed to get that out of the system.
After 22 runs SWISS PRIDE can be said not to hold many secrets,never won on turf and although with 4 wins to his name has yet to win a handicap.A maiden & 3 claimers may not look much but I believe his last run,and win,registering career high numbers makes a good case for him in this contest.Putting aside the geldings turf efforts it’s rather surprising that a handicap hasn’t come his way because he has some decent form in the book off this kind of mark.Taken 6/1 early price.
good luck to allYears ago a colleague said of me “…you do like to play the devil’s advocate..” which I took to mean my willingness to question the opinions,beliefs & arguments of others.Don’t get me wrong I’m all for free speech as I’ve commented before but will happily engage in debate over religion,politics and almost any subject one can hold an opinion on.However I do believe said beliefs etc should be based on and presented in a logical reasoned manner.So when I read the proposal that Big Ben shouldn’t chime at the UK leaving the EU because it may upset remainers got me to ask myself ….’why is the country still pandering to some delusional people who refuse to accept the simple fact that the EU is toast as far as the UK being a member is concerned?’.
They get upset …so what?
I seem to recall the great joy expressed by such people at continually blocking our exit.
A final nail in the remoaners coffin for me came in the way of the ‘Saturday essay’ in a national daily.
I quote “At times it feels like cocktail hour on the Titanic,with the iceberg looming on the horizon”
…”According to the relentless propaganda of the pro-EU cause,Europe would forge ahead on the global stage ever more united,while the UK would slide into insularity and decline.But that narrative is starting to look like a delusion.”
….” it is Britain that can look forward to the future with confidence,while the EU and it’s member states remain trapped in bureaucratic sclerosis obsessed with regulation and welfare …”
…”Britain looks like it can manage well without the EU.But can the EU mange without Britain?”
…”It is telling that,in this age of online technology,Europe’s most significant achievement has not been to create a new web giant to rival Amazon or Google,but to use it’s clout to introduce tougher controls on email traffic through more regulation”
…” it is remarkable that EU member states account for only 7% of the worlds population -but 50% of all welfare spending”
Just indulge me with one more quote in which the writer tells of a book published a few years ago giving a glimpse into French bureaucracy of a woman and her experiences working at Aquitaine Regional Council…
“….’I was getting destroyed by my job because I had nothing to do’she said,explaining that her actual work as a mid-ranking administrator amounted to between five and 12 hours a month…”
All the above quotes are from,not a Brexit backer,but from Alexander von Schoenburg who’s editor-at-large at BILD,Germany’s biggest selling paper.
The overall essay gives a picture of gloom for Europe wondering how they will cope without Britain’s contribution to it’s budget & economy and indeed perhaps it’s very survival for as he says “In Germany,fears are growing that the ship of Europe is sailing troubled waters.Soon it could be dashed on the rocks”
good luck to allWhile on paper it may look a tricky handicap the feature event on the fibresand at Southwell today is proven vs potential but in a three way bout.Gulliver is proven in class,Zylan on the surface and the potential is WASNTEXPECTINGTHAT.Still only 6 Gulliver seems to have been around a very long time and is in my book exposed with no secrets from the handicapper.He has been slightly higher but the only time racing in a handicap off the current mark wasn’t a resounding success however has won off 101 @ Kempton,a track he seems to favour along with York.Came back off a 149 day break to win as a 2yo but recent efforts following an absence haven’t been anything like as successful.There’s also a puzzle regarding overall form,no wins in any year before June with Oct & Nov providing 3 & 2 respectively.With his a/w from after winning his first three races hasn’t won since in 15 attempts.At 8 Zylan is the veteran of this contest with a very good record at this track,6 wins & 3 seconds from 11 races.However above class 4 he’s collected a solitary placed effort,this being his last race,recording very good numbers.Reading between the lines it’s unlikely he can improve to any great degree on what he’s produced to date.However Wasntexpectingthat is much less exposed especially on the a/w.His latest effort at Newcastle registered career high numbers with all the a/w races featuring prominently.Although this gelding has raced in the current grade on turf,with no great success,he’s clearly much better suited to a synthetic surface and only racing in lower class contests so far,has shown progression with his last set of numbers significantly higher than anything registered previously.This will be his fibresand debut as well as being the toughest race to date on the a/w.However if his numbers are to be believed should not only be competitive but hold claims for winning.
So for me it’s the potential of WASNTEXPECTINGTHAT to triumph.
good luck to allThink I may upset the applecart for some here with my view.
First of all the weeks delay I don’t believe would play a major role.
Second,personally I think tapeta is a superb surface and to dismiss the performance for this reason is plain wrong in my opinion.Recall Jack Hobbs making his debut on the surface at Dunstall Park late 2014.Didn’t seem to affect or reflect his 3yo campaign although the numbers he registered couldn’t be counted as anything more than good.So unless a decisive gap between his turf form and this display can be positively pointed out it’s best to take it on merit.
Finally,speed figures are relative to the pace of the race and although not his best for the year showed enough toe to put clear daylight between himself and the rest.
Something not mentioned by others here is the fact he’s quite a late foal,April 7,which would mean that the best is still more than likely to be seen as he matures and will not be 3 until just before the Guineas.I have no info to hand to know how such late foals do in classics but think this alone could see him wait for the Irish or by pass them completely.
ps.
I too await the flat turf season heralded for me by the arrival of the ‘Racing bible’.Guess Storm Over can be counted as one for followers of collateral form but won’t be giving up on my methods just yet!
Nothing of interest at Meydan so looked closer to home with an interesting filly that caught my eye after winning her maiden very easily and although the opposition didn’t amount to much it was the kind of thing one would have hoped for following her previous run in what’s turning out to be quite a hot novice event at Doncaster in the spring.Looking well treated for her handicap debut off 78 HAREEM QUEEN ran all over her rivals winning readily next time out.Returning to the track last month was beaten by a horse I put forward here but still improved her profile taking another step forward.Continued to improve when earlier this year was placed in a ‘Fast Track Qualifier’,btn less than a length,while the lowest rated runner but in receipt of the filly’s allowance.The favourite for tomorrows contest National Anthem although treating rivals with disdain following a very long absence has to my mind yet to beat anything of note.In both races since returning to the track one could hardly call the opponents ‘winning machines’ in the first the five rivals hadn’t registered a single win between them from 18 races.The second might be said to have more substance to it with Young Tiger & Big Time Maybe registering 5/40 and 6/36,however Young Tiger is yet to be successful outside class 6 events while Big Time Maybe has registered a win in class 4 this was over two years ago and only won in class 5 & 6 since with the rest of the field having a single win each so in total the runners from his last race have achieved 14 wins from 111 starts making it pretty dismal reading for such a short price favourite in my book.With nothing like the numbers to to support his form I have to take Hareem Queen to do the business here.
good luck to allThe way so many of the ‘tipsters’ writing for papers,periodicals,tipping services etc would look at the race under review today and use collateral form ….Storm Over was beaten a head by KATHEEFA off level weights but is now 7lb better off so must turn around the placings ….so the argument reads…….totally wrong from my way of looking at things.Since that run,Dec 19,where the selection Katheefa gave Storm Over a hefty start the latter has run and been beaten in a similar race where today’s pick has won again.Over the same trip but at Southwell Katheefa led all the way never in any serious danger and won with the jockey hardly moving a muscle or without being touched with the whip registering career high numbers in the process.Versatile as regard tactics and the underfoot conditions on a synthetic surface while on turf a single win from 13 races tells it’s own story.Unsuccessful at the minimum trip 0/5 @ 5f and the two attempts @ 7f finds the intermediate 6f perfect.A record of 6/21 with 8 places shows a consistent performer when things fall right and although he’s now racing off his highest handicap mark this gelding has probably never been better and worth the risk at Chelmsford this evening.
Looking at the other contenders topweight Lancelot Du Lac just doesn’t seem to possess his old ability although will probably put the pace to the race from his draw.
Calder Prince just doesn’t look to have the pace to get involved.
El Hombre hasn’t won any race once his handicap mark goes above 90 from 13 attempts.
Concierge just looks best at the minimum trip.
Red Alert looks out of form.
Shamshon best in my opinion at the minimum trip with a record of 1/21 over 6f kinda says it all.
good luck to all.Being a relative newcomer to the site I’ve still to discover some of the gems hidden away.
Found this thread while watching Meydan.
Just watched Soumillon wreak any chance his mount had before going from first to last in about a furlong!
If you don’t mind I can add an occasional tip for your consideration …having put forward Moment of Silence e/w in Trends,Research & Notebooks section.(Tails from the blackcountry)
