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I know we are in the midst of the jumps season but the flat is only 9.5 weeks away and I can’t wait already! I wanted to get TRFs opinion on how to take the form of the Futurity Stakes last season. Kameko is a horse on a lot of peoples lips for this coming season after powering home in this, but I don’t know how to take it.
1. It was postponed a week, which surely affects horses tuned up and ready to some degree, a week later also gives a higher chance of a horse going over the top right? In short, it becomes a higher potential to be an ‘outlier’ type of race.
2. It was on Tapeta of course, very unusual for a Group 1 and form that usually I would draw a line through when looking at horses running back on grass.
3. It was a typically very strongly run race for the surface and whilst he won well, he didn’t really scream that he has the speed to win a Guineas I didn’t think?
That said he’s clearly improving and posted an RPR figure of 117 which puts him right in the mix in terms of the profile for a Guineas winner.
Would be great to hear views on this.
Don’t agree with point 1 as the horse is fit, just means they’ll continue to train as if a race wasn’t coming up (maybe a rest day or just canters etc) and go back into race week procedure the following week.
Kittens Joy progeny has a very good record on the tapeta, Galileo progeny a bad one. Personally i see this as a massive flaw when it comes to taking this as true form.
Would agree he looked more of a 10F horse than a Guineas beast, even more so as he didn’t handle Newmarket in the Royal Lodge.
Have to admit, i’m heavily in NH mode- but i’d be disappointed if he’s a Guineas winner. The sire stat Kev mentions is also very relevant. I remember reading it after the event….not much use then haha.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!My 2019 top 2yo speed figures:
Pinatubo – 94
Pinatubo – 86
Pinatubo – 82
Arizona – 81
Military March – 80
Al Suhail – 79
Mums Tipple – 78
Arizona – 78
Earthlight – 78
Golden Horde – 78
Threat – 77
Raffle Prize – 77
Kimari – 77
Millisle 77
Guildsman 76
Kameko – 76Mike.
Think I may upset the applecart for some here with my view.
First of all the weeks delay I don’t believe would play a major role.
Second,personally I think tapeta is a superb surface and to dismiss the performance for this reason is plain wrong in my opinion.Recall Jack Hobbs making his debut on the surface at Dunstall Park late 2014.Didn’t seem to affect or reflect his 3yo campaign although the numbers he registered couldn’t be counted as anything more than good.So unless a decisive gap between his turf form and this display can be positively pointed out it’s best to take it on merit.
Finally,speed figures are relative to the pace of the race and although not his best for the year showed enough toe to put clear daylight between himself and the rest.
Something not mentioned by others here is the fact he’s quite a late foal,April 7,which would mean that the best is still more than likely to be seen as he matures and will not be 3 until just before the Guineas.I have no info to hand to know how such late foals do in classics but think this alone could see him wait for the Irish or by pass them completely.
ps.
I too await the flat turf season heralded for me by the arrival of the ‘Racing bible’.Interesting views, it’s a head scratcher because he does have some decent form on grass but we can’t ignore that sire stat also. I’m not betting at this stage but 16/1 must still represent some value in this Guineas market.
I checked on the late foal trend, only 2 out of the last 20 winners have been foaled as late as April, not a bad 2 as it happens, Sea the Stars and Dawn Approach. To give that stat any relevance though we’d need to check how many runners in the last 20 years have been foaled as late as April. If there’s a lot then 16/1 won’t be value actually!
Anyone want to do that?
Kameko …wins the Guineas!
Dismiss a/w form at your peril.
So now a Irish Derby winner & a Guineas winner have run on tapeta.
Although a lot of so called ‘experts’ will say you can’t compare the form between turf & a/w,with the exception of fibresand,I can’t agree.Only when a obvious preference is shown would I treat them as two different entities with no crossover.
good luck to allI’m treating Tapeta and Polytrack form as if it were turf. Races on these surfaces are run in a similar way to turf and I suspect it’s pretty much like ‘good’ turf ground.
The big difference is the layout. Before Newcastle the artificial surface tracks bar Southwell* were all tight turning tracks, Lingfield with added consideration of the downhill into the straight. Newcastle’s mile straight has added a new dimension and has now produced significant wins for an Arc winner and a Guineas winner.
*Southwell – A unique course where I would only ever consider course form.
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