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Absolutely brilliant performance and without doubt a much better horse over this trip.
9/4 to 5/2 for the Ryanair now if you’re lucky
I’ve just checked my GN book – if Rambling Minster wins, I make a profit of 57 pence.
I did ok having only backed the 2. Put enough on to save my bet if Rambling Minster was placed. Quite embarassing as I never really expected him to win but I’ll take it anyway.
Rest of the day doesn’t matter now
My worry with VPU is it’s a very very long time sincce he won against decent opposition. Master Minded never stayed and prior ro he the only race he won was when 2/5 fav in a fairly modertate affair at Kempton.
He has never encountered heavy ground and this 2m5f at Ascot must be about the smae as running at Kempton over 3 miles.I doubt if David Pipe fancies his chances in any race at Cheltenham with Tamarinbleu. You can bet your life though he will be as fit as a flea today.
He has won on heavy and he won at Perth over 3miles.
He certainly has a lot more proof going for him that todays trip and going wil favour him more than VPU.
Gwanako ran on soft at Aintree but fell too early to know if he will go on this ground. That makes him a blind bet which could be a good reason to leave the race alone.The way I see it is Tamarinbleu will take off in front and lead tem a merry gallop. If he gets a good lead on these I can’t see them knocking VPU about with the Ryanair on the agenda. If VPU wins it will be very easily or not at all IMO
Despite finishing well behind in the King George this could end up being a procession for the Pipe horse, especially if Gwanako doesn’t act on the ground.
Tamarinbleu for me.
No distance on the racing calander would worry me where KS is concerned. He takes so little out of himslef on the way round Cheltenham Sandowm Aintree all come the same to him.
If things have gone to plan he wins and it is really that simple..
I have never known any horse who didnt get the trip to win ta Gold Cup.
Pace and going come into it but if you don’t stay up that hill you don’t win.
Kauto was picking up after looking totally beaten in the latter stages of last yars GC. Anyone who thinks he doesn’t get the trip after that musthave watched a different race than I did.
Becky certainly didn’t write it, there are whole sentences in it and even punctuation
(no offence Becks!)thanx carv lol no offence taken he he glad someone can see the difference between my post and my bosses x
I can at a glance
Lisa Hales doesn’t know how to use capital letters either. Big fat John must have spent all his money on horses and pies and forget to send her to school I’m not sure about Charachter Building being able to reverse form with Rambling Master who has very seldom ran on this type of ground but ran well on soft behind Cloudy lane. If he runs I would fancy a small EW on him as a saver.
CB has had one too many chances for my liking.
Why on earth Sherwoods Folly is favourite against some better sorts is beyond me. Granted he finished 5th in the Welsh National but he’s fallen been pulled up twice, won a moderate race and been out he 3 in an even poorer race prior to Chepstow. That run could be asign he’s improving but it could also have been just one of those days. I think the latter is far more likely.
The most likely winner to me is Opera Mundi if one or both of the top two in the weighs stays in. He showed signs of coming back to his old self when finishing close up behind Cloudy lane and Glasker Mill. Sam homas has won here before on him which is another plus.
He’s a huge price at 10/1 all things considered I think he will go very close. The price allows for an EW bet which is probabaly the best way to go in this muddling contest.
well i would agree that nipper has a better chance on g/s or softer ground, if you look at the times of the last 2 runnings of the gold cup kauto’s win was alot slower than Denman’s win and yet the ground was alot quicker when kauto won, i don’t think kauto stays the trip in a true run gold cup..
That year the race played right into his hands, but last year he had his finishing speed taken right out of him…..i think you’ll find the fastest finishing horse was infact nipper and as ruby said 1 more stride and nipper would have beaten kauto….
I would wish no harm on any other horse and i certainly wouldnt be saying a horse would tip up… but nipper has made fewer mistakes than some fancied horses in the race FACT!!!!!!
Nipper ran kauto to a nose last year and if you were judging kauto on his haydock race than what would you be saying???? just because he won the king george beating Albertas run by less than a fully fit Denman beat him at the weekend isnt great form!!!!! This years gold cup is very open ,last year there was always going to be one winner he was a machine and lets hope he comes back to that form even if we have to wait till next season for that…….LHYou’re quick to tell us what Nichols said with regards to him saying he would have beaten Kauto if they had went a yard or two further, but you’re less than quick to point out that Ruby Walsh said Kauto didn’t feel like Kauto during the race. So if the Kauto that ran in the King George turns up, he might have to find a little bit more than half a length. He also goes straight there this year from the KG.
Good point! plus the fact Neptune Collonges wouldn’t have gotten near Kauto Star had he not almost fallen the last.
The point Beckster/Lisa Hales makes about Denman beating Albertas Run by further than Kauto Star shows me there is a distinct lack of knowledge about race reading coming from that quarter.
How many times has Jonjo O’Neill said Alberta’s Run needs good ground to be seen at his best?
He could never get going against the big 2 and was obviously hating it. Combine that with them setting the pace up front its amazing he finished so close.
The ground was perfect for him when he met Kauto Star. Totally different scenario.
Certainly not a piece of form I would take seriously or use to make any sort of valid point.
I wouldn’t agree as he jus one his first Grade 1 chase and they know what Exotic Dancer need. Probably needs that little bit extra time between races and with Denman a possible absontee the Gold Cup has taken priority. He seems in the best of form and they must fancy their chances a bit to miss this
There is no hint of Paul Nichols following suit but no two horses are the same.
Notre Pere is a vey likable animal but at 3 miles I doubt if he can upset Neptune Collonges despite the ground. I just couldn’t have the Listner and it’s alot to ask of Thyne Again running over 3 miles for the fist time if it is heavy ground, He has agood engine but doesn’t look like an out and out stayer to me
Price is very stingy about NC but if Ladbrokes are still going 4/5 him at the overnight stage and 2/5 Master Minded then 6/4 the PN double could be stealing money.
Cheers Pal.
Seems a strange move re: The Champion, but maybe i’m talking through my pocket. I think it was as short as about 10’s at one point judging by the graph on betfair, so i’m sure the Supreme must have been a target at some stage.
A mistake in AP betting we all make from time to time is to presume if a horse is in he betting he is likely to run. Nick Gifford has been talkng about the Champion Hurdle for the horse for months.
Bookmakers are also very guilty of starting hype by puting undeserving horses in at short odds in the hope we act like sheep and they make a killing.
Paul Nicholl’s Tatenen is the best example I can think of at the moment. He won a moderate race and they immediately was made as short as 3/1 for the Arkle ad the season was hardly of the ground.
Cousin Vinny stood alone for a long time as fav for the Supreme and he’s on the verge of missing the race if his own stablemate Hurricane Fly beats him easily on Saturday.
Tough old game the AP market.
I think that the one who is really chucked in, but needs to get fit, is Trabolgan.
I’d have thought the plan would be to run in the William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham.
Henderson has got 2 months to do the magic.
I find it ironic that the bookies are talking up Butlers Cabin being chucked in on Irish National form, when the OH has given him a 12lb raise from the current rating.
I also find it hilarious that because of bad form, the OH has dropped Tony Martin’s Dun Doire to 130, and now it stands no chance of getting into the race.
The most Ironic thing about the National is it give trainers the opportunity to train horses on the racecourse and most form flies out the window on the day. Trabolgan and Butler’s Cabin could finish tailed off in every race they run; win the National and the stewards wouldn’t say a thing. The trainers have an automatic out "The extra distance brought the best out of him".
With 11s 10lbs on his back and Tony McCoy likely to be riding JP’s Butler’s Cabin Exotic Dancer has a huge task.
He is an easy horse to turn off which can be worth a good 7lbs at Aintree Even at that most people would agree it is probably beyond him
If it is a lost cause does anyone think Jonjo should risk giving Richie McLernon(7) nephew of Tommy Carmody a chance or Alan Berry (5) who many say is the best amatuer in the country?
Doesn’t David Johnson just love a good moan?
It’s been along time sice a horse won 2 years on the trot and Complie or Die has only 3lbs more to carry this time, although he has gone up a lot in the weightsI doubt if he has been off a yard this season and David Pipe I suspect is happier than DJ
. He still has a good racing weight, obviously loves the place and must have a fair chance of being there abouts again.Complie or Die, Butler Cabin, Notre Pere and Cloudy Lane make most appeal to me at the moment
Just a quickie.
I notice that Dee Ee Williams has been taken out of the betting at a number of firms? Has he been confirmed as injured or missing the race??
Not that I fancy him at the minute, I just want confirmation that my ante-post wager is definitely consigned to the scrap heap.
Haven’t heard anything but Nick Gifford was hopng to run him in the Tote Trophy and then the Champion Hurdle Blunkett. I don’t think the Supreme was really ever on the cards.
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If i had to have a bet Madsion is the only horse that i’d consider backing in the GC. Kauto and Denman both made rapid imporvement in their winning years, and now one is underpriced and the other out of form. They are something MDB can never be though – a "champion".As long as David Pipe keeps Madsion sound up until raceday, and presuming Madsion handles the track and runs to within half a stone of his Aon form, he’ll be placed in the GC (imo).
You are not the first to say Kauto Star is under priced but I am in disagreement. He’s around 2/1 right?
Let’s go with the Denman won’t run camp for a moment. What then?
I can’t see any horse in the race that would have Kauto Star of the bridle apart from when Ruby says time to go lad.
Supposidly it was the Denman 2nd circuit tha beat him last season.
With no Denman in the race we are left with? MDB who clearly isn’t suited by the track having run badly there 5 times. Neptune Collonges who even in his very poor condition last year KS would have beaten easily but for last fence blunder and Exotic Dancer who is probably the mostly lkely to take adavantage of any mishaps by KS.
I think in this case the bookies have got it right unless Denman does turn up fighting fit. Even then he is perfectly capable of beating him.
With Denman in the race last season he went of at 10/11 fav.
With Denman out of the race I think KS is unbelievably good value at 2/1.
I try to grade my bets and tend to keeep the large ones for better races and better horses. Those who consistantly win or those who have been touted around as something special before their first run like Diamond Harry, Hurricane Fly, Mad Max, Zaynar etc. I’m happy to take short prices as you get nothing for nothing in this world,but I seldom back south of 4/6. Stakes are high but risks are lower and occassionally you get great value like 6/4 KS in the King George, Binocular evens at Ascot. or Hurricane Fly evens at Leaperdstown.
I believe an even money shot in the class of say Hurrican Fly has a lot less chance of defeat than a novice hurdler at Plumpton e.g. racing against unknown quantaties. I also believe, in many cases, there is more chance of making money of horses on the way to the big meeting than here is at it. Unless of course you you have stolen a big AP price about a would be good thing. That’s a different ball game and you can then lay them until the fogs come home.I do have other bets on horses I think are on the way up but draw a line I don’t cross. I don’t have a large bet until I am totally convinced or ave heard a horse is capable of winning in very good company. When I am, I try and steal early prices in their stepping stone races on the way to the top grade. If you know something or even think something, nothing is more certain than some others know or are thinking the same as you are.
I never back on the all weather, evening meetings of any descrption,. Stewards seem to go blind after 5pm
I have a betting box as I call it. The idea s to have small bets as an interest and keep an eye out for something outstanding. It needs refilled more often than not but it is only play money and serves it’s purpose.
Handicaps: I try to find a decent horse who will go on the ground and has a decent racing weight. I always back small and EW and get on early if I know the horse definitely runs.
Value. I look for horses who are clearly the best horse in the race but not favourite. Often horse from Nicky Hendersons, Paul Nichols or Alan Kings are false favourites. Not a fool proof way of picking a winner but passes the time while waiting for the more obvious bets.
