Blue Square Gold Cup 2009

[Gerald]

THe GN often goes to a horse that is ahead of the H’capper, and this race is probably the first evidence of such a horse existing.

3m4f Haydock

So the going is likely to be chopped up and Soft.

I’ve gone to the trouble of putting the entries in OR order, as I find that more comprehensible than alphabetical. I don’t think I’ve accidentally deleted any.

I think Comply Or Die is likely to be topweight.

Star De Mohaison & Trabolgan aren’t listed in the prices, so presumably they’ve already been scratched or it has been noted they have another engagement.

I still like Mon Mome, so that will be my first bet.

L’Aventure has been running well for her new stable, and if the weights go up 12 lbs, she’ll “only” be 8 lbs out of the h’cap. I haven’t checked her price yet, but if she’s three figures, I’m on.

I’ll have another look at the race after the 5 day deccies.

NO. FORM HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR

161 Joe Lively 21 10 11-12 C L Tizzard 166 156 167
b g Flemensfirth (USA) — Forest Gale (Strong Gale)

232 Halcon Genelardais 21 9 11-10 A King 164 170 175
ch g Halcon — Francetphile (FR) (Farabi)

411 Notre Pere 49 8 11-7 J T R Dreaper 161 165 173
b g Kadalko (FR) — Gloria IV (FR) (Video Rock (FR))

U1P Nozic 21 8 11-7 P F Nicholls 161 – 173
b g Port Lyautey (FR) — Grizilh (FR) (Spoleto)

924 Star De Mohaison 21 8 11-7 P F Nicholls 161 146 176
b g Beyssac (FR) — Belle De Mohaison (FR) (Suvero (FR))

-61 Madison Du Berlais 77 8 11-5 D E Pipe 159 140 172
b g Indian River (FR) — Anais Du Berlais (FR) (Dom Pasquini (FR))

725 Monkerhostin 14 12 11-1 P J Hobbs 155 137 175
b g Shining Steel — Ladoun (FR) (Kaldoun (FR))

11- An Accordion 340 8 10-12 D E Pipe 152 123 172
b g Accordion — Jennie´s First (Idiots Delight)

-P0 Comply Or Die 64 10 10-12 D E Pipe 152 173 174
b g Old Vic — Madam Madcap (Furry Glen)

7UU Miko De Beauchene 28 9 10-12 R H & Mrs S Alner 152 169 177
b g Nashamaa — Chipie D´Angron (FR) (Grand Tresor (FR))

182 Mon Mome 27 9 10-8 Miss Venetia Williams 148 158 175
b g Passing Sale (FR) — Etoile Du Lion (FR) (New Target)

-63 Opera Mundi 28 7 10-8 P F Nicholls 148 103 174
b g Discover D´Auteuil (FR) — Gymnastique II (FR) (Aelan Hapi (USA))

1/P Trabolgan 56 11 10-8 N J Henderson 148 – –
b g King´s Ride — Derrella (Derrylin)

F12 Cornish Sett 49 10 10-4 P F Nicholls 144 169 174
b g Accordion — Hue ´N´ Cry (IRE) (Denel (FR))

017 Nenuphar Collonges 49 8 10-4 A King 144 167 177
b g Video Rock (FR) — Diane Collonges (FR) (El Badr)

114 According To Pete 21 8 10-2 J M Jefferson 142 157 172
b g Accordion — Magic Bloom (Full Of Hope)

/3P Darkness 49 10 10-3 C R Egerton 143 – 176
ch g Accordion — Winnowing (IRE) (Strong Gale)

651 Rambling Minster 44 11 10-3 K G Reveley 143 152 172
b g Minster Son — Howcleuch (Buckskin (FR))

433 Character Building 21 9 10-0 J J Quinn 140 154 171
gr g Accordion — Mrs Jones (IRE) (Roselier (FR))

682 Eric´s Charm 14 11 10-0 O Sherwood 140 156 181
b g Nikos — Ladoun (FR) (Kaldoun (FR))

-33 Alderburn 56 10 9-13 H D Daly 139 168 176
b g Alderbrook — Threewaygirl (Orange Bay)

0P2 Glasker Mill 28 9 9-12 Miss H C Knight 138 139 171
b g Old Vic — Lucey Allen (Strong Gale)

P20 Gypsy George 14 8 9-11 T D Walford 137 138 169
b/br g Sovereign Water (FR) — Query Line (High Line)

411 Kornati Kid 14 7 9-11 P J Hobbs 137 149 178
b g Kayf Tara — Hiltonstown Lass (IRE) (Denel (FR))

049 A New Story 23 11 9-10 Michael Hourigan 136 155 166
b g Fourstars Allstar (USA) — Diyala (FR) (Direct Flight)

-3P Beat The Boys 49 8 9-10 N A Twiston-Davies 136 146 168
gr g Portrait Gallery (IRE) — Portia´s Delight (IRE) (The Parson)

-F4 D´Argent 28 12 9-10 A King 136 160 161
gr g Roselier (FR) — Money Galore (IRE) (Monksfield)

-P5 Sherwoods Folly 49 7 9-10 H D Daly 136 165 169
b g Classic Cliche (IRE) — Action De Balle (FR) (Cricket Ball (USA))

5-7 Lothian Falcon 14 10 9-9 P Maddison 135 126 163
b g Relief Pitcher — Lothian Rose (Roscoe Blake)

P37 Nadover 26 8 9-9 C J Mann 135 146 171
br g Cyborg (FR) — Djerissa (FR) (Highlanders (FR))

341 Coe 28 7 9-6 Mrs S J Smith 132 122 167
br g Presenting — Dante´s Skip (IRE) (Phardante (FR))

16P Hello Bud 14 11 9-5 N A Twiston-Davies 131 143 164
b g Jurado (USA) — Orchestral Sport (IRE) (Orchestra)

PP1 Carnival Town 29 8 9-3 Jonjo O´Neill 129 103 158
b g Classic Cliche (IRE) — One Of Those Days (Soviet Lad (USA))

7U6 Lysander 14 10 9-1 Ian Williams 127 148 159
br g Monsun (GER) — Leoparda (GER) (Lagunas)

222 That´s Rhythm 107 9 8-13 M Todhunter 125 120 158
b g Pistolet Bleu (IRE) — Madame Jean (FR) (Cricket Ball (USA))

432 Iwillrememberyou 28 9 8-11 C E Longsdon 123 132 158
b/br g Lord Americo — Endless Patience (IRE) (Miner´s Lamp)

15/ Snakebite 756 9 8-10 Carl Llewellyn 122 – –
gr g Taipan (IRE) — Bee In The Rose (IRE) (Roselier (FR))

046 The Real Deal 78 8 8-10 Nick Williams 122 143 160
b g Taipan (IRE) — Forest Mist (Dalsaan)

32F L´Aventure 44 10 8-8 Nick Williams 120 149 153
b m Cyborg (FR) — Amphitrite (FR) (Lazer (FR))

[shabby]

At first glance Coe stands out …. with Glasker Mill and Miko De B interesting will have a proper look tonight.

[KendalCavalier]

There are a lot of exposed horses in the field. However, if and it is a big IF, NTD’s horse show any signs of improving between now and the 14th then Portrait Gallery would have a definite squeak.

[Gerald]

Beat The Boys, you mean?

[KendalCavalier]

Yeah, I do. I’m still thinking in terms of sires!

[Gerald]

I don’t know whether the stats bear this out, but I think these kinds of races in late winter belong to the older horses.

The second season chasers have already blown through, and the H’capper will have most of them, and the novices aren’t ready yet.

The older horses have taken a couple of runs to get fit, and now they are ready to do themselves justice.

On the other hand, I’m still looking for those on the way up.

[Gerald]

5 day deccies

NO. FORM HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 7UU Miko De Beauchene 28 9 11-12 R H & Mrs S Alner 50 152 155 163
2 -P0 Comply Or Die 64 10 11-12 D E Pipe 73 152 159 160
3 -63 Opera Mundi 28 7 11-8 P F Nicholls 71 148 89 160
4 182 Mon Mome 27 9 11-8 Miss Venetia Williams 76 148 144 161
5 F12 Cornish Sett 49 10 11-4 P F Nicholls 71 Nick Scholfield 3 144 155 160
6 017 Nenuphar Collonges 49 8 11-4 A King 50 144 153 163
7 651 Rambling Minster 44 11 11-3 K G Reveley 75 143 138 158
8 433 Character Building 21 9 11-0 J J Quinn 50 140 140 157
9 682 Eric´s Charm 14 11 11-0 O Sherwood 50 140 142 167
10 0P2 Glasker Mill 28 9 10-12 Miss H C Knight 50 138 127 159
11 -P5 Sherwoods Folly 49 7 10-10 H D Daly 0 136 155 159
12 -3P Beat The Boys 49 8 10-10 N A Twiston-Davies 33 136 136 158
13 -F4 D´Argent 28 12 10-10 A King 50 136 150 151
14 P37 Nadover 26 8 10-9 C J Mann 43 Noel Fehily 135 137 162
15 341 Coe 28 7 10-6 Mrs S J Smith 50 132 116 161
16 PP1 Carnival Town 29 8 10-3 Jonjo O´Neill 57 129 100 155
17 32F L´Aventure 44 10 9-8 Nick Williams 0 120 149 153

I’ll do a runner by runner analysis in the next couple of days, but for now, I’m going to bed.

Glasker Mill is supposedly an unlikely runner, what with Hemmings already having Sherwoods Folly and Coe in it. He has already mentioned "other plans" for Glasker Mill, but I haven’t gotten around to working out what they are.

[halfwaytoheaven]

Cornish Sett and Nick Schofield get on ridiculously well and with that in mind anything like 10/1 or above (which I’d hope for ) would be a crazy price to turn down.

What kind of price do you make CS, Gerald?

I’d be a little concerned about Mon Mome if it the word ‘good’ isnt somewhere in the going description. Mon Mome is a classy performer without a doubt but the run behind Kilbeggan Blade over hurdles last time out left little to be desired. It was almost like Mon Mome didnt stay! The soft ground that day really didnt help.

Comply or Die needs this. He really needs to perform well to stand any chance at Aintree in my honest opinion.

Character Building is of massive interest for me. If that’s right that he’s going off 11st then he’s got to be well in there. He;s been knocking on doors off top weight for a while this season and this could be the perfect weight for him. Sadly, the bookies seem to agree though

Of the others, Nadover could be a massive price at 33s on the day. I cant help but feel Nadover’s run over hurdles at Hereford a few weeks back was in preparation for something like this.

To summarise, If I can get Character Building at 8’s by Saturday I’ll be laughing. 4’s arent for me.

If I cant, Cornish Sett (who I’ve just seen is 13/1 on Betfair whilst typing this) is my bet of the day. Small saver on Nadover at 33s

I wouldnt deprive Comply or Die of an emotional comeback to form though. Especially with the Pipe yard on their way back to top form

[Gerald]

Jeez, you want me to do a 100% book as well?

But I know nothing about steeplechasing.

I haven’t even begun to study the race – I’m intellectually lazy.

Hope you read this Halfway

I read a query on the Forum from someone in Ireland a few weeks ago, about what is happening with horses’ AW and Turf ratings being linked. Well Haajes can be used as a case study. He had one not very good run on the AW. On the turf, he improved 30lbs, and the OH responded by increasing his AW rating 24 lbs as well. The OH has quickly realised after two recent runs that that was a mistake, and has already dropped him 8 lbs. At some stage, the paths of Haajes’ OR coming down, and Haajes’ coming in to form will pass, and he will scoot in.

Today maybe the day. It seems that last week’s race was slowly run, and that might not have suited Haajes, as he took a keen hold. I quite like him as the outsider

, and he’s got Dale Gibson on board.

Like I said before, my buzz is sprints.

I’ll produce a book on Wednesday evening, and then you can laugh at it.

[halfwaytoheaven]

Haha no worries Gerald, I thought you’d done a book already as this might’ve been on of your races like the Paddy Power.

I’ll do a 100% book too and then everyone can laugh at mine! Mine’s guaranteed to be worse. I had Sublimity down at 9/1 for his last race! Imagine if people backed that they wouldve thought they were on cracking value.

Granted though….he didnt win and my favourite, Brave Inca did….. All’s well that ends well.

[halfwaytoheaven]

Ok I’m very very poor at making a tissue at the moment (i’m just starting out with it all in all honesty and go on my own ratings).

Heres my ‘effort’….

COE 4/1
GLASKER MILL 8/1
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE 21/2
RAMBLING MINSTER 31/1
CARNIVAL TOWN 27/2
BEAT THE BOYS 17/1
OPERA MUNDI 17/1
CORNISH SETT 18/1
D’ARGENT 19/1
NENUPHAR COLLOGNES 24/1
COMPLY OR DIE 25/1
SHERWOOD FOLLY 26/1
ERICS CHARM 29/1
NADOVER 29/1
CHARACTER BUILDING 30/1
MON MOME 33/1
L’AVENTURE 52/1

Now’s youre chance to take the mick out of my book Fair play though Gerald – theyre great prices for your selection

My books for NH are mainly based on ground and direction to be honest.

I’m more a middle-distance flat man

[Neil Watson]

Coe and Opera Mundi ran very good races at Haydock last time and should both be in the shake up in a race where C and D experience is so vital on this much tighter course.

L’Aventure always stays on at the end and cannot be ruled out even if she is 25l behind going down the back on the last circuit.

[Gerald]

I’m not looking at your book Halfway.

I’m working on the race this evening and tomorrow afternoon, and then I’ll do my book, probably about 7pm.

[Gerald]

I’m developing a bit of a headache, so there are only 6 this evening.

This is all a bit academic, because the ground already has frosty bits, and it is set to get colder.

MIKO DE BEAUCHENE
8 lbs higher than when winning this lasytyear, but it looks far more competitive this year. Unintentionally fresh as paint, as had UR last twice. Trainer in good form. "Entitled to go close". Now a 9yo, ought to be at peak.

COMPLY OR DIE
Blinkers are on!

OPERA MUNDI
1 lb higher than when 3rd in Peter Marsh last time. Has also won at Haydock a couple of years ago. Hasn’t performed well beyond 3m before, but hopefiully the tt will make a difference. Although the horse is only a 7yo, I don’t understand why it is such a big price for the GN.

MON MOME
Ignore the Welsh GN as there was an early mistake, and it was only 15 days after the win at Cheltenham. 8lbs higher than at Cheltenham, which is reasonable considering it was 57k to the winner. Ignore last season as well – rushed preparation.

CORNISH SETT
I hadn’t realised this had come 2nd in the Welsh National – I don’t think the BBC had it in the television frame did they? Running off same mark.
10yo. Is there more to come? Achieved RPR 150 4 times, plus 149 in Welsh National. Had a breathing operation last summer, so there could be improvement. Don’t expect a wide margin victory though. Blinkers. Has won 8 times all codes: dead heat, nose, nk, 1.5, 1.75, 2.5, 3 and 3.5 lengths. I make a head and 3/4length the 5/2 joint favourites.

NENUPHAR COLLONGES
Disappointed in Welsh National; made a couple of mistakes. I expect him to do better here. Hurdle rating is still 4 lbs higher.

Well, as clear as mud so far. My book might end up consisting of all 17 horses being 16/1.

[Gerald]

I’m finding it difficult to say anything new, meaningful, or insightful, but here goes.

RAMBLING MINSTER
Gone up 8lbs for winning at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Stays 4m. He’s 11yo, and I think he has already shown us how good he is. I think there is only 2 or 3 more lbs to come. I can’t really be having him.

CHARACTER BUILDING
Gone up 4 lbs for being irresolute 3rd in Rambling Minster’s race. Distance will suit, and I think there is a consensus that a flat track will suit more than Cheltenham. (If there wasn’t a consensus before, I think there is now, after the latest two runs there.) 6lbs better off with Mon Mome for the thrashing received from Mon Mome in December. I’m trying not to peek at the prices, but they are big and red. Why is Character Building half of Mon Mome’s price? Surely it should be the other way around?

ERIC’S CHARM
Trainer is adamant the horse is 10lbs better going right-handed. Running of the same mark as when 2nd at Sandown last time, but most of the field except the winner were exposed. Has mainly run on Gd to Sft. Will be interesting watching how he copes going left-handed.

GLASKER MILL
Raised 3 lbs for being a narrow second here in firsttime cheekpieces in the Peter Marsh Owner has the first two in the betting. Will he run a third? Going back to the Peter Marsh, the first 3 were well clear, so I think Glasker Mill and Opera Mundi could both be well in.

SHERWOOD’S FOLLY
This has been the target for the season. 2lbs lower than when 5th in Welsh GN. I’m not too sure about this horse, and think he might be a bit inconsistent.

BEAT THE BOYS
Bred by Carvillshill. I ain’t saying nothing.

Well, I’m off to bed for a few hours kip, and hopefully I’ll be able to finish the field in the wee hours of the morning.

Plus the book.

[shabby]

Whats the chances of the meeting going ahead? I am only 30 miles from the track and it seems quite mild (and wet) here. I have a nice price on Coe, so fingers are crossed.

[Friggo]

Assuming he’s an intended runner, I expect to see the blinkers on Comply Or Die on Saturday and equally expect a season’s best from him. I took some e/w at 20s this morning.

[Author]

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