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Exellent thread this is, its certainly changed my opinion on value betting.
In the past (up until yesterday) i would normally be saying what Escorial is saying right now, if you find a winner then back it regardless of its price. That is what i have been doing but i can now see the light thanks to this thread. I had never really taken the time to figure out how people determine what value is, but its all been said and done right here for me on this thread, and now i’ve read it, i’m asking myself how i had not figured this out before.
When a bookmaker is working out his book for a race he will most definate’ly use the form to get his prices, but once the betting starts for that race form will go out the window but your choosen horse will still have the same chance you have given it regardless of what the bookmaker does with its price. This has to give the value backer a big edge over the bookmaker.
What i’m not so sure about is how you figure out a horses chance in a race by giving each runner a percentage, how do you come to that percentage? Lets say you have horse A in race 1 and horse B in race 2 and you read the form and give them both exactly the same chance, when you work out your book and turn their chances into percentages will they both have the same percentage? I cant see how this is possible unless both races were cardboard cut outs of each other, i’d appreciate if someone could take the time to explain this. ÂÂÂ
Do you work to a specific value point, ex, must your selection be 2pts, 3pts or say 4pts bigger than what you determine its chances to be.
How long does it take you to figure out your book on a race, obviously this fluctuate’s for each race so in other words does this make for alot more work.
<br>I’ve been out the game for around 6 months now only having the occasional small bet, if the money is not in the bank then its best to stay away until it returns. Anyway, when i am active’ly involved and studying the form on a daily basis my bets are quite selective anyway, so i’m not so sure working towards getting value would help me, i’m not sure how often these value selections appear. If only 1 in 6 of my normal bets turned out to be what i determined value after making my book that would result in me betting to 6 times my normal stake and not having very many bets. I’m not sure how i’d take to that but i’m definate’ly interested in giving this a go, it does make sense.
Regards<br>ALI
If i had to nominate one race at the festival (excluding the big 3) it would be the triumph hurdle, its usually always a hot race.
Every year there is always 1 or 2 races that i look forward to more than others, but this all depends on whats running. Without a doubt the Champion Hurdle will be one of those races this year becuase of the Istabraq factor.
I’m not a supporter of the Grand National, i think its barbaric. It degrades horse racing and is an obvious target for the anti’s. I agree with their first point, the death toll for this race is a disgrace, i’m not shure if the figures they give are correct but none the less the Grand National is more of a gauntlet than a race. Half the horses in the race should’nt be, some of them clearly do not stand a chance of completeing the course but are only entered as the owner or trainer would like a runner in the race. The distance is not the big problem here, its the fences and the amount of runners. So what if the course officials ‘are doing their best’ to improve the fences etc. I think some of the comments made after this years National were laughable, people were saying it was great that no horse was injured etc, sounding as if they were almost surprised (it was a near miracle that no horse was killed or injured, lets face it!). The only thing that keeps this race going is the history behind it. If there was no such thing as the Grand National and someone tried to start that race up now, do you think that could happen, would you want it to?
I’d be happy to see the back of this race, i think its a joke, thats my opinion anyway!!!
No, not for me Mickey, i have a passion for this sport, i like to gamble, shure, but i could stop of i wished and i’d still buy the racing post, watch the racing on tv, surf the web, read racing books etc etc. I love this sport, its not just about gambling me.
Exellent reading Steve, appreciated. I’ve printed that off to to go alongside my step by step guide to calculating dosage figures. I find that very useful.
Have you paid any interest to the tattersalls breeze-up sales Steve on the 18th and 19th of this month. Just out of interest.
Pure dead brilliant bye the way.
Big thanks to Barry, Daylight and to anyone else who helped set this up, keep up the good work.
Barry mensions the c4 racing programme above, i’ve never heard of it, anyone got any info on this.
All the best<br>ALI
