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Straw Clutching, are you mad (possibly)………… Esc you never fail to amuse :shades:
<br>I said there is no way of telling how Istabraq would have run had he not been injured during the race……… what is it about that you cannot understand? <br>Please dont refer me to Alistair Downs article, i know exactly what Aidan O’Brien had been saying before the race, and as our Aidan pointed out, all he was doing was explaining that they new they were up against it, that they were attempting to make history, they were trying to do something that had never been done before, they new it was no easy task, they new Istabraq may not be as good as he once was, but would he have needed to be? Only one way to find out and thats to run him. Perhaps you should have called Aidan O’Brien before the race and told him what you knew, that Istabraq, quite frankly, had no chance. You could have saved them the journey over…… :shades:
I pretty much agree with that Tooting. I think they new it was a longshot and i give them full credit for giving it a go. I dont think that they thought he had no chance, if that was the case i’m sure he would not have run. But they new he was on the slide and were obviously hope’ing that he would still have enough of his old self left to pull of one last victory.
Lets not forget, Istabraq was injured here, there is no telling how he would have run had this injury not happened.
Tooting, dont forget us Scots and the the Welsh.
<br>And Ali/Colin – cut through the crap and no mistake.
Thats exactly what i have been attempting to do, but there is so much of it on this thread its no easy task my friend.
<br>By the way, whats your take on this? Sorry if i have missed your point, but i’d like to know your theory regarding the mysterious goings on surrounding Istabraq’s injury at Cheltenham.
I’d like to see it in "big black writing" exactly who you are accussing and what you are accussing them of, there’s to many allegations flying around on here its hard to know who is saying what.
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<br>Here are some of the allegations that are being dished out:
1) Istabraq was brought over to Cheltenham to bring the Irish support with him.
2) Istabraq only ran in the Champion hurdle so that he could be pulled up infront of the Grandstand. This is thought to be better than retire’ing him in his box.
3) Istabraq was not trained to win the champion (if choosing this option please elaborate on why you have come to this conclusion).
4) Istabraq was not injured during the race.
5) Istabraq’s connections new he was injured before the race but decided to run him anyway.
6) JP, Charlie and Aidan all ploted to pull Istabraq up after the second hurdle so they culd cash in on the 8/1 being offered by Paddy Power for him not to finnish the race.
7) JP bet 100k on Istabraq not to complete the course.
8) JP backed both Landing Light & Valiramix ante-post.
9) O’Brien, JP & Charlie are all crooks.
Remember, Big Black Writing[/size], also try and keep it clear and precise, i’d like to know exactly what it is you are saying………….. thanks in advance!!! <br>
JP, a multi millionare, acting in such a desperate way, i doubt it very much. I’m sure when he places his bets they are more for fun, not because he needs the winnings.
Anyway, why the hell would any bookmaker lay 8/1 on Istabraq not finnishing the race to the very man that owns the bloody horse??????????????
This 8/1 on Isty not finnishing was no doubt a novelty bet, i dont think for one second that they would have taken a bet of 100k on this.
Istabraq was obviously unsound, if you watch the race agian you can clearly see by his head movement that something was amiss and that he was all out trying to keep up with the field shortly after jumping the first. Was Charlie Swan holding him back? That answer to that is no. Had Istabraq not been unsound he would have been able to go the pace………………… so what does that leave us with? Obviously Aidan O’Brien, JP & Charlie Swan all knew he was injured-unsound but decided to run him anyway? Or, he had not been in training and was so unfit that this was the reason he could not keep up. Is that what you are saying here, because it dosent leave many other options, but then it swings back around to the same fact again, he could’nt go the pace because something had clearly went wrong with him, all you have to do is watch the tape again. You get to see a good shot of him after he has been pulled up and you can see their is something wrong with his back hind right leg. This ‘theory’ holds no ground with me, i think its an insult to all connected to the horse. But we are entitled to our opinions, thats what this forum is for, i just think this topic is a bit rediculous to be honest!!!
Istabraq turned up yesterday to win, full stop. I cannot imagine JP or Aidan or Swan all agreeing on some sort of conspiracy theory. This horse means the world to them, and they know he means the world to racing fans all around Britian and Ireland. There has been many romours surrounding Istabraq throughout his career but this one tops the lot, in my opinion. No offence meant though, we are all entitled to our views. ÂÂÂ
When it comes to sporting events i am definate’ly patriotic, and i have learned that this clouds my judgement, so i try not to bet at all on these events. For instance, the Breeders Cup, or the world cup, or a boxing match, i an normally always right behind our home interest.
I think to a certain degree we all suffer from this.
Keith, my point is a simple one, much like your postings. Without every piece of information being factored into a book then how can you begin to seek out value. If you have the answer please post it, thats what i have been asking. This is just the view that i have taken, i’m not saying i am correct, i did not know the first thing about making a book until i read this thread so who am i to say what is right and what is wrong!!!
"the thing with the value angle is that you have to be able to price a race up 100% acuratley or you fail"
Sorry sirspread, i thought you were reffering to your own ability when it comes to making a book.
<br>Escorial, thats an interesting point you make, one which i have to put to the value panel:
on the panel we have:
nick hatton<br>james321<br>micheal<br>daylight<br>tooting<br>jjimps<br>smithy<br>keith the teeth<br>luke
The question is, do you believe that your book is always 100% correct, if not, then just how accurate do you think it is.
Sirspread, you are the first person on this thread to say you price up your book with 100% accuracy. When pricing up your book what factors do you use, i.e, speed figures, weight, going, distance etc etc.
<br>I’m definate’ly interested in pricing up my own book but it only seems to make sense to me if the book can be priced up accurate’ly say 90% of the time, i’m not confident that i’d be able to do that. Everything that you used to find your winner should be calculated into the book, this giving you an accurate price. Missing out any piece of information would not give you a true price, in my opinion.
So how do you do it sirspread!!!
I understand and appreciate what your saying dl, but if your book does not take into account every factor that you used when reading the race sure’ly your percentage on your horse would be out in the first place, so it would be missleading to begin with. Can you understand what i’m trying to say or does it seem i’m way of track? I’m not trying to poke holes into anyone’s system, i’m just trying to get a grasp on this.
Can anyone see where i’m comming from with this? ÂÂÂ
I realise that each person has their own way of producing a book, i’d just like to see 2 or 3 different scenarios. What i cant yet understand is how you can read a race, find your winner, then transfer all the information you used to find that winner into producing your book. I’m guessing that most of the information you used to find that winner is not used when making your book, this therefor leads me to believe that the book produced would have to be inacurate.
Now i realise that your book is not produced around the one horse, all runners are taken into account, but to find your winner you also have to take all runners into account also, so all this information would have to be used in order to make your book accurate.
<br>I believe i’m making sense here, at least i understand what i’m thinking. I’m not saying without using all of the information you used to find the winner of the race when making your book is wrong, i just cant understand how it would work otherwise, sure’ly without all the information the book would have to be inacurate?
(Edited by ALI at 9:12 pm on Jan. 15, 2002)
Like Escorial, i fully understand what is being written on this thread. I’m swaying back and forth here, i’ve sat and thought about this and i’m not sure if the value option being discussed is the best option, from my point of view anyway.
For one, i’d like to cut to the chase and ask all of you who make your own book to pick a race and show me (or us) exactly how you do it. You must be working to a method so lets see it, whats the big secret, if there’s no secret then take the time to post it. I for one would appreciate it.
Good to have you on the forum Nick.
<br>Tooting, if your method is working for you then thats all that matters at the end of the day, good luck to you. Personally, i could not back any horse in any race unless i thought it was the winner, regardless of price. And i certainly could not back horse B against horse A if i thought horse A was the winner, i cant even entertain that thought. But if its working for you then thats all that matters.
Regards<br>ALI
Tooting, your the first person i have ever heard say that they do not look for a winner in a race……….. that is what you just said is’nt it?
You’ll back anything that represents your criteria of value, regardless of form obviously as you do not look at a race from this angle, sounds like a quick way to the poor house to me.
How anyone can back winners and make profit without using the form as a guide is beyond me?????
Thanks Daylight, that definate’ly helps, the picture is getting clearer, i think?
In order to make a book then i guess you have to be working with figures. How do you calculate a horses bare form, how do you calculate a percentage for something that you think is going to happen, something that is going to help or is going to hinder the horses chance, something that there is nothing to back it up with, only your interpretation, for example a horse being stepped up in trip, stepped up in class, new jockey on board, running for new stable, running on new ground, running at new track, first time over fences, dropped back over hurdles, time between last race, comming back from injury etc etc. Does it then become guess work, are you then forced to guess?
I’m just trying to get a clear picture on this, any feedback is appreciated!!!
(Edited by ALI at 3:18 pm on Jan. 14, 2002)
