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Front 3 head and shoulders above everything else there vtc, expected better from him considering his formline wasnt all that bad
Laurens being aimed at the qe2 which will be a big betting scenario for me again, was going to play antepost, but with the posibillity of roaring lion being aimed there if the rain comes, which looks likely, will push laurens out to possibly bigger than the current 5/1, ill sit on it for a day or two before deciding, recoletos wont win, im certain of that, roarig lion wont win, im certain of that, hes a 10f specialist, absolutely will not win this, expert eye wont win, lord glitters slightly worries me because of his run style (a style that will catch laurens out at some point) this may be one race too far, but the vibes are good and there happy to supplement, which means im happy to dive in, this is a weak renewal, she will be getting 3lbs off roaring lion and 6lbs off the older colts/geldings, they havent a prayer of giving her that weight at the end of october and winning and she has the beating of everything else.
Going into friday (im away for the weekend so will write up just now), pretty pollyanna has been declared now and only 8 max goto post, so my previous bet of 1 point e/w @6/1 with 3 places is looking tidy, this is a steering job if she gets the trip, which i think she will, i said last week in the chevely park that i thought 6f at this stage of the season for her is not far enough, SDS didnt give her the worst ride and i think its fairly harsh to be taken off her, but, this is a certainty if she stays and im certain she will, she hit the line hard in the morny, signora cabello was all out at 6 and she looked like further would be perfect, shes rated in a different stratosphere from the other 7 in the race, donnacha aboard the ballydoyle #1 in hermosa, ran well in the moyglate just finishing infront of zagitova who seamie rides, wouldnt be surprised if zagitova turned the tables on hermosa here, antonia de vega, won well last time but the form isnt worth anything, if she for whatever reason went off extremely short id place lay her, cant see her being good enough for this, certain to get the distance though on pedigree but proximity to chynna would leave her something to find with hermosa, the godolphin filly beat a horse who ran 4th in the marcel boussac (the worst group 1 this year) cant have her either, gosden running shambolic, can she find 20-25 lbs of improvement if everything runs to form? Very doubtful IMO, the other two, not for me, not group 1 quality.
Cons against pretty pollyanna, as much as im certain she will stay the mile, oasis dream as everyone knows, throws out very fast horses, his best 2yos have never gotten a mile really and only a select few from the older bunch have aswell, they get 7f in time, but the mile does seem to stretch them, but im confident ahe will get the mile aa much as it goes against the norm, hermosa is likely to sit prominent like last time, zagitova in behind, iridessa probably put in here to attempt to spoil pretty pollyanna upfront, which could very well happen, so ill probably save on hermosa or zagitova on the day, but NRNB is in play now so going to top up with my original bet
Adding in 2 points pretty pollyanna @9/2
With my original antepost 1 point e/w pretty pollyanna @6/1, 1/5th @3places
Ham; interesting and rather ballsy on Laurens. Yes i do very much like her myself but to say Roaring Lion won’t win as he is a 1m2 specialist wouldn’t be something i’d agree with. He has an awesome turn off foot, and i am sure it will be every bit effective over a mile. The factor that poses him the greatest task is the ground, if it was to turn soft. It would be a fantastic final furlong to see the fast finishing RL vs Laurens…we might finally see how much she keeps for herself!
Pretty Pollyanna on current ratings has the Fillies Mile in her grasp, but to me she beat a pile of non stayers in the Morny, and whilst she shaped like she’d stay further than 6 on both her runs, i’d still worry about a jump of 2 furlongs, especially against horses such as, Hermosa, ADV and Zagitova who will blatently see the mile out very well. She’s not a bad price to be fair! While Hermosa looked decent LTO, i do think her strongest rival Trethias somewhat bombed out last time even by finishing 4th….
Zagitova a tentative selection for me!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Roaring lion, as much as hes a top class horse, has only shown that form over 10f, because he shows a turn of foot at 10f doesnt mean he will show it at 8f, if you look back at the guineas for example at this stage of the season, when you take into account only 8f form and not horses stepped up or dropped back, the mile form is extremely poor, none of them bar saxon warrior possibly (which obviously we will never know) are group 1 milers, the guineas was a group 1 race by name this year but not in Quality Over the trip
A statistic to back that up, is that every horse from this years guineas, since the race in may None Have gone on to win a mile race at any level and this is the premier mile race for this generation,
Roaring lion was unable to quicken against poor enough quality opposition at that trip, which sais to me that hes just simply, a better horse over 10f, i also believe that this myth, that soft ground will mean he will be as good over 8 as he would at 10 over good is nonsense, a mile on soft is nowhere near the same as 10 on good, if he doesnt act on soft, then he doesnt act on soft regardless of the trip
I believe he will be unplaced if he turns up at the mile, laurens gets 10 on softer and 8 on any ground, if she turns up, there all up against it IMO
As far as pretty pollyanna is concerned i dont entirely disagree, but shes still the fav for the 1000 guineas as of now, going into this small field, hermosa and zagitova, are not and will not best a rating of 117 im certain of that, they may end up winning a group 1 as AOB is capable of squeezing one out of them somehow near enough every season when it looks like there not good enough, if she stays the mile she wins and i think the price is far too generous to pass, she should be 2/1 at best even with stamina concerns, i disagree in regards to the morny form, signora cabello was all out But put enough distance between her and 3rd to suggest she got it fine, true mason would have won the mill reef had the ground not turned into a bog, she travelled the best, untouched until the last furlong and she just couldnt quicken on the ground and was outstayed by a horse with a pedigree for a mile,but still she managed put daylight between her and 3rd, but shes being dropped back to 5f tomorrow so we should know more tomorrow, land force already had won a group 2 over 6f before going to the morny, staying on at the end, and maries diamond went on to run 4th in a group 1 4 1/2 lengths behind ten sovereigns.
But you are correct and as i had also said the concern is will she get the trip, it goes against the majority of oasis dreams offspring and it could look silly come tomorrow to have went against a continuing trend. But i cant shake off the way she hit the line in the morny, everything about it for me said she would get further and needed further but ive left room in my bet to have a saver like i said on one of the obrien pair, probably zagitova.
The ground would be the factor making me uneasy about Roaring Lion- def not the trip. Twice over a mile, RP trophy and Guineas RL did show his tendancy to hang left….he had the rail in the guineas but he hasn’t shown that tendancy more recently, and thats hardly due to the trip. So without the hanging left, he will be a much more straight forward ride, and that turn of foot is more likely to be shown than not Ham. On ratings over a mile, Roaring Lion probably has every bit as good form as Laurens. For all i believe she is still hard to rate like Ginge has said. Laurens has the versatility down to the ground, but hopefully if RL shows up, he handles it and makes it a great race. I would be happy to take on Recoletos as well like you.
PP is priced attractively given her rating etc. If she stays the trip fully i’d agree, she’d be hard to beat.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I think his 3yo 8f form is pretty poor, group3 at best, laurens would beat elarqam out of sight, but hes more streetwise like you say so maybe he will be slightly better? WIll be interesting to find out jack so good luck with him if you fancy him, but ill be confident laurens will be infront of him!
Oh no mate don’t especially fancy him considering the ground is unknown right now. I would really worry on soft ground with him, his turn of foot might be blunted. His 3yo 1m form is only 1 proper race, the first we might as well forget… I would say if it turned up good ground he’d be very very hard to beat, but soft Laurens would be my idea of the winner….
PS on Merie Devie- always loved her, but finding her hard to work out right now on the flat…seems to be quite badly out of form!sort of fancied low sun!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Previous reply to this vanished hmm
Yeah im a sucker for being well in on a hurdles mark and she is fairly well in if capable of running to her best, i like the jockey booking for her im a fan of lordan, low sun should be bang there and seamies a great booking, significant if hes bothered to take the chance
Autumn stakes
1 point magna grecia @5/1
And stay she didnt really, 7 woukd have been fine, 8 was too much, not too much damage done picking up the place money! Wont be a race to take not of goig forward
Champions sprint
1 point e/w librisa breeze @8/1
Breeders cup filly & mare turf
2 points wild illusion @7/2
Breeders cup filly & mare sprint
2 points dream tree @4/1Breeders cup classic
1 point roaring lion @16/1Having just got back from a weekend a way, wqsnt the greatest betting weekend, was gutted pretty pollyanna couldnt see out that last furlong but like i said previously is probably look back and question the stupidity of the oasis dream 2yo 8f issue, magna grecia i have no doubt will beat persian king next time they meet, too darn hot was pretty exceptional, was about as bad a performance in the first 6f as i can remember, then he just absolutely dotted up, if he stays fit he could have plenty more 1s appearing, he wont stay the derby trip though, purely on a price basis, ill likely back quorto for the guineas. Another future classic winner for me in norway and ill be backing him soon for the st leger, by this stage lf the year my breeders cup bets are usually all done, but alpha centauri being retired has set me back and ive just held off until i was nearly certain what i fancied would show. Roaring lion being the obvious one from the above that wont, but with soft ground coming at ascot and enable in the turf, i wont be surprised if he appears in a very “moderate” classic.
Qe2
Start off with this before i max out at decs
2 points laurens @5/1
Out to 6/1 now and shes been jocked up so i think its relatively safe to take the plunge…. relatively safe lol
1.5 points e/w laurens at 6/1
Crazy that shes an e/w price lol kneck deep in this one on the day again for sure
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