To Punchestown and beyond

[ham]

3.35 newmarket

A race revolving around the fav, when a big price tag is attatched to a horse or stout breeding, it gives for an opportunity to get a decent price about something else, for me this is one of these times, one of the worst favourites ive seen for a long time, theres absolutely no way this horse should be 2/1 fav, ill be fairly surprised if he isnt 3/1 before the off, its an absolute must to take on and outwith this thread ill be having a fair chunk laying him at current prices , that being said, dunkerrons form hasnt worked out atall as much as visually his 2nd behind dark vision was good, its poor form, i dont like the johnston horse coming into this off a nursery win and after 5 runs his have usually shown there hand, ill be surprised if he could improve any to win this, floating artist ran well lto, but again, it was on heavy ground and its always hard to put a figure on that type of performance, the bottom two havent shown nearly enough, bye bye hong kong, imo should be stepped up in trip, breeding suggests he will be better over further, would be a nice boost for sangarius if you can never tell were to run well, very unoriginal and again its unusual for aidens to run again so soon and ive missed the fancy prices about him, but ill be fairly gutted if he doesnt win 5 points cardini @5/2 Im happy to forgive a few of his runs in the middle of the season, yard wasnt right as well documented, a reproduction of his run lto and he will win this comfortably

[ham]

1.35 newmarket

0.5 points e/w bardo @ 66/1 1/5 @ 3places

[Gingertipster]

Nice write up on the 3:35, ham.
Can see where you’re coming from, you were right about Prince Eiji, has drifted this morning and you must have a good Lay bet there. I expected to oppose Prince E too when first looking at the race, but this seems a poor renewal. As you’ve intimated there’s a lot wrong with all runners. However, when form of the best horses don’t look good enough to win an average renewal – which imo is important because if there is one capable of winning an average renewal it is going to be an unexposed sort. Prince E has had only one run (winner), extremely well bred and Varian’s often improves his horses in chunks from first to second start.
On basic form Cardini looks the one, might win but was a 40/1 shot given an extremely soft lead and flattered by proximity to Too Darn Hot. Could get the lead again (something that may be important today with a tail wind) but seems a bit short to me. Disagree with Bye Bye Hong Kong; too free to do himself justice and – at the prices – backed him to reverse the form with Cardini. Cardini is of course probably the best horse, but if (admittedly a big IF) they go a reasonable pace and he settles early – we might see a different BBHK on what are less stamina sapping conditions than Donny.
Arctic Sound may have had more races than many, but improved quite a bit last time out. If that progression continues is right in the mix. Mark Johnston seems over his usual poor run of form from mid-August to mid-September. Can be ridden prominently too. Wouldn’t back him now at 6’s, but got far bigger last night. If I had a reverse forecast it would be Arctic Sound – Cardini.
Ground, trip (speed instead of stamina) and the way this race may be run – all imo against Floating Artist.
You never can tell but Sangarius won a slowish run race and 4th placed You Never Can Tell shouldn’t be good enough.
I here Dunkerron came back from the Solario with a bad scope. Goodwood Champagne Stakes not worked out at all well yet, but Dunkerron has a chance if fit and well. However, to me three weeks doesn’t seem long to be rested and then come back to his best.

I’ve backed Arctic Sound at an average of 9.48/1, Bye Bye Hong Kong 13.5/1 with saver Prince Eiji 2.85/1.

We should have the winner between us, ham. GL

Value Is Everything

[ham]

Spot on ginge well done, couldnt have him myself and id agree now post race that cardini is farely flattered with the proximity to TDH, winner is worth more than the winning distance considering the trip he had to take, top stuff from sds

Was worth taking the fav on as inhad said and i had a fair bit laying him, so happy enough! (Not so happy for the thread) LOL

[Gingertipster]

Ryan went far too fast on Cardini, ham.
You called Prince Eiji right though.
Hope you made a profit on the race with Prince E losing.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

They went far too fast early, ham; so the winner might have been in an advantageous posi out the back. SDS kept to the inner for most of the race too; only coming wide when the others were coming back to him. Oisin kept to the rail until late too. Although he wouldn’t have won anyway, I wonder if Prince Eiji is the one to take out of it. More prominent than those that beat him and far less racing experience – more scope for improvement.

Value Is Everything

[ham]

Yeah thats a fair assessment i havent watched it back again yet, and although i was heavily against prince eiji, i do still believe he has the scope to possibly be the best of these like your suggesting my negativity was only ever based on the likelyhood of him running to 105+ Or around that second time out, with his debut only a fortnight ago, was always a big big ask for me.

[ham]

1.35 haydock

1 point e/w, point in time @5/1

[ham]

Royal lodge

3 points arthur kitt @4/1
0.75 points e/w mohawk @16/1

[ham]

Chevely park stakes

1 point e/w fairyland @8/1 1/5 3 places

Adding in Lady kaya 1 point e/w @8/1 1/4 @3 places

She should really appreciate this drop back to 6, was travelling all over everything LTO and just didnt have the stamina to get home, i have a slight worry about the fav, she is probably the best here and is rated accordingly, but she is starting to look like shes needing stepped up, she battled on well LTO to rallie and win, signora cabello surprised me LTO thought 6f would stretch her, i believe she just seen it out, fairyland could still be anything, definitely needed the run LTO, hoping one of my two can prove upto it, as i said PP would be my idea of the best of these but i do worry about her remaining over 6f this far in the season, this is set to be a furious pace which may just play in her favour though.

[ham]

Cambridgeshire

1 point e/w whats the story @40/1 1/4 @ 8 places (365)

[ham]

Royal lodge

3 points arthur kitt @4/1
0.75 points e/w mohawk @16/1

Expected improvement, that was more than i expected lol

[ham]

Fairyland and mohawk doing the business today, was a bit disappointed that lady kaya couldnt get placed, maybhave been a bit firm for her, 6f over softish probably is her game. Will be keeping an eye on mendelssohn tonight, hopenhe can put in a nice performance

[ham]

1.50 naas

1 point conor hogan @9/1

[ham]

Prix de l’opera

1 point magic wand @10/1

[ham]

SUn chariot

2 points laurens @5/2

Will be adding clemmie in once decs are up.

[ham]

3.20 naas (tues)

1 point eminence @3/1

[Author]

Posts