Home › Forums › Betting Chat – Bets & Tips › THM Goes Jumping 2014-2015
- This topic has 183 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 1 month ago by
thehorsesmouth.
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- November 7, 2014 at 18:21 #494710
Despite what I’ve said about Willie Mullinsr runner needing their seasonal reappearance,
Analifet
looks overpriced tomorrow on a good card at Naas. Her main opposition, Kitten Rock, ran well in the Juvenile Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival but is 12 lbs wrong at the weights with Analifet.
Naas 1.00
Analifet
€40 win @ 8/11 (B365)- €140
November 8, 2014 at 08:36 #494752Naas 2.10
Le Vent D’Antan
€30 win @ 1/1 (BV)- €170
November 9, 2014 at 17:29 #494835Very good novice chase at Navan but I wondered what you made of Kauto Grand Mogol at Limerick? Probably wasn’t much of a race and he isn’t the biggest but I don’t think I have seen many debutants jump quite so well.
November 10, 2014 at 18:48 #494888Couldn’t get on here yesterday morning but anyone who noticed the Navan article in the features section will probably know I backe both Harvey Logan and Gilgamboa yesterday. I also backed Fine Article at Naas on Saturday but yesterday’s winners ensured a profitable weekend, even if that’s not reflected on here. It’s frustrating because I didn’t have Blaklion up on here either and the season has started quite well for me.
Very good novice chase at Navan but I wondered what you made of Kauto Grand Mogol at Limerick? Probably wasn’t much of a race and he isn’t the biggest but I don’t think I have seen many debutants jump quite so well.
The novice chase was good alright, what did you think of Empire Of Dirt’s run?
Kauto Grand Mogol was very good. Brian O’Connell took the bull by the horns and those tactics seemed to suit. He was a close third to Martello Tower on a bumper, a horse I rate very highly. It will be interesting to see what way they go with KGM now, he could be worth trying in a graded novice hurdle some where, although as you say the form doesn’t look up to much.
November 10, 2014 at 23:48 #494903Been having a look at the big races at Cheltenham this weekend and there’s nothing in either the Paddy Power or Greatwood that makes me want to get heavily involved. However, there are a couple at big prices who are worth an each way interest, both trained by Venetia Williams.
In the Paddy Power, she has
Kapga De Cerisy
entered. He hasn’t been seen for almost exactly a year, when he ran away with a Sandown handicap chase in impressive fashion off a mark of 139. He goes off 148 this weekend and given how he won that day he should be competitive off that mark. A bigger concern is the fact he’s been off the track for so long, and it would take a big performance to take such a competitive handicap first time out. Another negative is that he has disappointed on his previous two trips to Cheltenham, including when fancied in the Byrne Group Plate at last year’s festival. That being said, at 33/1 I’m willing to take a chance on him, as he’s an unexposed type and the Williams horses are in fine form.
In the Greatwood, Venetia has another unexposed entry in
Baradari
. His jumping has let him down at times in the past, but he runs off the same mark as he did when a running on fifth in the Fred Winter in March. He came from a long way back on that occasion and it seems likely he’d have gone very close with a better ride. He ran a good race on his seasonal reappearance, when third behind the Nicky Henderson pair Dispour and the impressive winner, Sign Of A Victory at Ascot earlier this month. I’d hope that run has left him spot on for this assignment and he looks overpriced at 25/1.
Paddy Power Gold Cup
Kagpa De Cerisy
€7.50 e/w @ 33/1 (B365)Greatwood Handicap Hurdle
Baradari
€7.50 e/w @ 25/1 (B365)€5 e/w double @ 33/1 & 25/1 (B365)
November 11, 2014 at 13:52 #494916Very good novice chase at Navan but I wondered what you made of Kauto Grand Mogol at Limerick? Probably wasn’t much of a race and he isn’t the biggest but I don’t think I have seen many debutants jump quite so well.
Kauto Grand Mogol was very good. Brian O’Connell took the bull by the horns and those tactics seemed to suit. He was a close third to Martello Tower on a bumper, a horse I rate very highly. It will be interesting to see what way they go with KGM now, he could be worth trying in a graded novice hurdle some where, although as you say the form doesn’t look up to much.
Kauto Grand Mogul going for a Grade 3 next:
November 12, 2014 at 18:43 #494991It’s no surprise that there’s interest in
Tell Us More
on here, he looks a serious prospect and is a horse I included in my Irish ten to follow article. I’ve been told Patrick Mullins gave him a good mention on a Racing Post podcast yesterday or this morning so it could be time to take the last of the 20/1 before it disappears.
Neptune Novice Hurdle
Tell Us More
€20 win @ 20/1 (WH)- €230
November 13, 2014 at 17:31 #495036Cheltenham 2.25
Dell Arca
€20 win @ 4/1 (WH)Cheltenham 3.00
Blaklion
€30 win @ 2/1 (B365)- €280
November 13, 2014 at 18:48 #495042The novice chase was good alright, what did you think of Empire Of Dirt’s run?
Been having problems accessing the site to answer. As you know I followed this horse with a little success last season. Given that there was a little bit of market support for him I thought he was pretty disappointing. Certainly from where I was sitting he didn’t appear to have anything like the scope of the winner. If he were mine he would go back over hurdles as I think there is still a strongly-run decent handicap in him. Hard to knock Gilgamboa although if you were being picky it looked to me as if he was dragging his hind legs through the fences. That said he never looked like falling.
November 13, 2014 at 19:01 #495046Cheltenham 3.00
Blaklion
€30 win @ 2/1 (B365)Good luck with this one. Notice the hood isn’t listed?
I would be wary of Minella Present, Champagne Present and Port Melon so I will definitely just be watching for the future. Race of day for me.
November 13, 2014 at 19:28 #495050Cheltenham 3.00
Blaklion
€30 win @ 2/1 (B365)Good luck with this one. Notice the hood isn’t listed?
I would be wary of Minella Present, Champagne Present and Port Melon so I will definitely just be watching for the future. Race of day for me.
I actually hadn’t noticed that Stilvi, that’s interesting. He takes a bit of stoking up so perhaps that’s why they’ve left it off. He provided me with by far my biggest win of the season last time out and I just felt he could be called the winner a long way from home, even though he was under the pump. He finds plenty for pressure and I think there was plenty in the locker last time if something had come to him. I had hoped Dell Arca would go for the fixed brush hurdle at Haydock, for which he is 12/1, as he looked made for it imo. Thought 4/1 was big enough tomorrow, a decent little race. Colour Squadron struggles to get his head in front and the likes of Dell Arca, Champagne West and Urban Hymn could improve past him. Looks a good card tomorrow, and the weekend promises to be top notch with cards from Cheltenham and Punchestown both days.
November 14, 2014 at 08:39 #495076Cheltenham 3.00
Blaklion
€10 win @ 4/1 (Coral)- €290
November 14, 2014 at 10:00 #495083Tommy what you think of CHAMPAGNE FEVER he my gold cup horse at 20/1 hope he goes for that race not Ryanair
November 14, 2014 at 10:28 #495094Cheltenham 3.00
Blaklion
€10 win @ 4/1 (Coral)Is this some sort of new account offer as to date the horse doesn’t appear to have been any bigger than 9/4?
November 14, 2014 at 11:47 #495104Cheltenham 3.00
Blaklion
€10 win @ 4/1 (Coral)Is this some sort of new account offer as to date the horse doesn’t appear to have been any bigger than 9/4?
It is my first bet with Coral but it wasn’t a new account offer. They just had the offer for a limited period at 8.30 this morning, 4/1 Blaklion for up to a tenner.
November 14, 2014 at 15:36 #495134I couldn’t pick my nose on here at the moment, only seem to back winners when the site is down and out
November 14, 2014 at 17:14 #495136I couldn’t pick my nose on here at the moment, only seem to back winners when the site is down and out

I think everyone has bad spells, hopefully it won’t last long. Perhaps a few smaller each-ways at bigger prices might help turn things around?
It was a good thing I didn’t part with any money on the race. Was lucky enough to have a free bet on the race and plumped for Minella Present but he was effectively beaten once Johnson somewhat strangely decided it was a good idea to hold up a horse who wouldn’t settle.
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