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A rare bet for me across the pond on a weekday, in the first race at Perth.
BLACKLION
looked a promising sort in bumpers for Nigel Twiston Davies and is fancied to make a winning hurdles debut. Gordon Elliott’s Pumped Up Kicks looks the danger but I think she’ll struggle to concede weight to the favourite.
I’m staying loyal to
Blacklion
at Cheltenham tomorrow in the opener. This represents a step up in quality for Nigel Twiston-Davies horse but he shaped like a horse with plenty of improvement to come last time out. His jumping will hopefully be sharper and he should relish the stiff finish at Prestbury Park. The only worry is that he already needs more of a stamina test than tomorrow will provide, but at 3/1 I’m willing to play ball.
I’ve been quiet the past week but time to give my thoughts on the past week or so’s action. Firstly, I’m a bit miffed I didn’t get on her last Saturday as
Blaklion
repaid my faith in him with a win at 8/1 at Chepstow. The price was a big surprise to me given he was much shorter for a similar contest at Cheltenham the week previously.
On that Chetenham card,
Tiger Roll
put in a good performance to beat Calipto giving away weight. It’s possible Sam Twiston Davies went off too fast on the Nicholls horse but still I was impressed with how Tiger Roll picked him off up the hill. He’s out again tomorrow at Down Royal, but more on that later.
On the Irish front, both Tammys Hill and Harvey Logan, both handicap hurdle winners on Sunday, are capable of winning more handicaps. It looks like
Tammys Hill
is running in the James Nicholson on Saturday but if reverting to the smaller obstacles later in the season he’ll definitely be of interest.
Harvey Logan
was a good bumper horse who somewhat ‘lost his way’. Now that he has regained the winning thread, he can go in again next time out.
Yesterday at Punchestown, I felt that the bookies had the prices of Wounded Warrior and Shanahans Turn the wrong away around. Both looked chasers of real promise beforehand, and it was
Shanahans Turn
who enhanced his reputation with a smooth win. He looks a decent animal.
Wounded Warrior
stayed on well enough in second without looking like threatening the winner. He’s still a bit narrow and light but undoubtedly a nice type of animal.
Chancol
was impressive in winning the earlier beginners’ chase, pulling clear of Mrfiftyone despite hanging to his left on more than one occasion.
I’m really surprised
Pendra
has not been given an entry in the Paddy Power. Presumably he has suffered a setback because it just doesn’t make sense to me otherwise.
Looking at some of the entries for the coming days/weeks, I’d say that business is about to pick up…
And a couple of others things I forgot to say:
The award for strange ride of the day yesterday went to Paul Carberry (who gave Chancol an excellent ride in fairness) on Zigger Zagger. He stayed on Realdealholyfield’s left throughout despite that one jumping out that way, and he was almost turned sideways at the second last. For a jockey as talented as Carberry to do something that was blatantly going to hinder his chances was hard to fathom. The horse was also a big market drifter.
Horse to take out of the day was Drumlee, who also drifted in the betting and who ran a lovely race in third behind Chancol. Duck duck duck GOOSE
Big day of action at Down Royal tomorrow, and I’ve had a bet already. I was just logging in to me Bet 365 account to back Morning Run at 10/11 for the G3 mares’ hurdle, but by the time I got to the race page the price was cut to 4/6. That’s not a price I’m willing to play at so I’ll let her run.
The horse that I have backed is Tiger Roll in the G2 WKD Hurdle. I can’t understand how he is not clear favourite for this. Obviously it’s not easy for four year old’s against there elders at this time of year and it will be no easy task giving horses like Arctic Fire and Wicklow Brave weight, but he has plenty going for him.
Neither Arctic Fire or Wicklow Brave were far off the best novices last season and both are quite similar in a lot of respects. I imagine a fast run two miles will suit both well and neither are short of speed. Wicklow Brave’s form tailed off after Cheltenham last year but hi run in the Supreme Novices was eye-catching and should he bounce back to that form he’ll have a say. Likewise, Arctic Fire has form in Grade 1 novice hurdles and he’ll appreciate the good ground and likely decent pace. While I am a big fan of Arctic Fire, I don’t understand how he is 7/4 and his stable companion 15/2, when they have shown similar levels of ability thus far.
Guitar Pete and Little King Robin are also worthy of respect. Guitar Pete is 2-1 up over Tiger Roll in three times they’ve met, but it’s likely Tiger Roll was over the top at Punchestown while he was having just his second run when behind Guitar Pete at Leopardstown in the spring. I would expect him to come on from his recent run behind Clarcam, however. Little King Robin is in great heart and should she be given too much rope out in front she could be capable of punishing her rivals.
The reasons for siding with
Tiger Roll
are many imo. When winning the Triumph Hurdle he looked a hurdler of huge promise. He could be called the winner quite a way from home in my opinion and that is not often the case in a Cheltenham Festival Grade 1 event. He’ll like the ground and given how he stays two miles very well, the likely strong pace should help him here. If you throw out his Punchestown run (a run which I have no problem ignoring) he has the profile of a very progressive horse who could develop into a Champion Hurdler.
He also has the benefit of a recent run, something the Mullins’ horses lack. Ruby Walsh has said during the week that Urticaire’s run at Clonmel today would give some indication to the fitness of the Mullins horses and she looked very fresh before fading in the straight. She looked like a mare who would come on plenty for the run and that has to be a consideration when contemplating a bet here. I think Tiger Roll can continue on an upward curve and have taken 11/4.
Down Royal 2.05
Tiger Roll
€30 win @ 11/4 (B365)- €95
Tiger Roll possibly burst a blood vessel there, hopefully he’s alright. Hoping for a good round from Apache Stronghold now.
I think
Boston Bob
is the value bet for tomorrow’s JN Wine Champion Chase at Down Royal. I do concede that the fitness of the Mullins horses is a worry, and that is the only thing preventing me from having a whopper of a punt on him. The penny seemed to drop with him at the end of last season and at his best he’s a class above the opposition imo. With the dead eight runners, including two horse that look out of their depth, I’ve gone each way and hope there are no withdrawals.
JN Wine Champion Chase Down Royal
Boston Bob
€20 e/w @ 4/1 (PP)- €135
Looking at tomorrow’s Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby, the prices seem downright odd to me. Taquin De Seuil is a 4/1 chance while Double Ross, who was only two lengths behind Taquin at Cheltenham, is available at 14/1. Even allowing for the fact Double Ross has to give the Jonjo O’Neill horse a pound, there seems to be too much of a disparity between their odds.
They both ran a couple of weeks ago behind Wonderful Charm at Newton Abbot, and while Taquin De Seuil ran a stinker, Double Ross was going quite well before being brought down. There are many reasons to believe Taquin will come out on top of this pair but not enough to warrant him being less than a third of the price of Nigel Twiston Davies’ animal.
It’s a tricky enough little race, much like the big race in Down Royal, and Silviniaco Conti is a worthy favourite. However, many of the Nicholls’ strong are needing their first run. I think Double Ross is worth a small bet at 14/1.
Charlie Hall
Double Ross
€10 win @ 14/1- €145
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Shame about Boston Bob for you THM, to me it looked obvious that the Mullins team are going to take their time prepping him for March and that this was just a warm up, Walsh never looked like he wanted to win.
They clearly think big things of this horse and think he can win the gold cup.
Shame about Boston Bob for you THM, to me it looked obvious that the Mullins team are going to take their time prepping him for March and that this was just a warm up, Walsh never looked like he wanted to win.
They clearly think big things of this horse and think he can win the gold cup.
Thankfully played e/w at 4/1 so no major damage done anyway. Most of the Mullins horses are looking shy of peak fitness, be interesting to see how Felix Yonger gets on later today.
Charlie Hall
Double Ross
€10 win @ 14/1He ran a blinder THM, thought he was going to do it for you. He did me proud last year, and not seen anything yet, to put me off keeping an eye on him again this season.
Yeah I was happy with the run, just looked to run out of petrol after the last.
Naas 2.30
Lieutenant Colonel
€30 win @ 4/6 (B365)Interesting to see what happens when he gets a few reverses but few, if any, better over an obstacle at the moment than Johnny Burke. Owner’s horses definitely benefiting from the new partnership.
He’s on a roll at the moment alright Stilvi, gave that an excellent ride. Result might have been different had Lieutenant Colonel not left a gaping hole in the fourth last but I liked the way the Giggy horse winged the last two. Grand Annual horse ran well in behind too.
Martello Tower is a really likable horse, Utmost Zeal not so much, and the drift told the story there.
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Last post should be
Having a bet at Exeter tomorrow, on Alan King’sCarraig Mor
(2/1) in the three mile novice chase. It’s a good little race but this horse looked a potential superstar when winning at Uttoxeter last season. Things didn’t really go right for him after that but fences will hopefully bring out the best of him. The only concern I have is if the ground will be soft enough for him. That’s a chance I’m willing to take.
Exeter 2.45
Carraig Mor
€25 win @ 2/1 (PP)- €100
The 2.55 at Fairyhouse is the race i’m most looking forward to today. It sees one of lat season’s best novice hurdlers, The Tullow Tank, taking on the smart stayer Mala Beach. Today’s conditions should suit The Tullow Tank, now with Dessie Hughes, more than Gordon Elliott’s horse and therefore it is no surprise to see him 1/2 favourite. If he does win today it will set up a mouthwatering clash with Apache Stronghold in the Drinmore.
Mala Beach will probably be seen to best effect when he gets heavy ground and three miles. Races like the Topaz Novice Chase at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting, and the Woodlands Park and Ten Up novice chases in January and February, should be right up his alley.
Carraig Mor was disappointing. His jumping was very iffy and he was simply too keen to do himself justice.
At Fairyhouse, The Tullow Tank put in an excellent performance. His jumping wasn’t perfect over the first few but he warmed to his task and I loved the way he winged the third last when Heskin asked him for one. The Tullow Tank vs Apache Stronghold in the Drinmore is a mouthwatering prospect. Mala Beach ran a really nice race in second and I think he’ll be a force when he gets his conditions (three miles, soft ground).
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