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THM Goes Jumping 2014-2015

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  • #26713
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    Listowel is a reminder that the jumps season proper is just around the corner and the quality of NH action starts to pick up.

    Tomorrow’s big race is a 2 mile Grade C handicap hurdle, where I’m siding with a horse I have plenty of history with, THE GAME CHANGER. He has risen steadily in the weights since the winter and it’s no surprise that this rise has coincided with efforts on good ground. He has put together a string of decent runs this summer including a placed effort in the Galway Hurdle and a win at Killarney. He is five pounds higher than that run now but he should still be on the premises. Last time out he was second over 2m 2f behind Darwins Fox, where imo a combination of a good ride from Andrew Lynch on the winner and the extra couple of furlongs proved too much to overcome.

    Of the others, it’s interesting to see early money for Run With The Wind. He has a great record at Listowel and trainer Michael Hourigan won the big race today.

    Listowel 4.35
    The Game Changer
    €15 e/w @ 7/1 (PP)

    - €30[/color:20chxdmh]

    #490432
    Avatar photoThe Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8697

    Good to see you back Tommy,you are the guy on DLAPS that always seems to hit the cross bar,I know what you are capable of and I hope to see a profitable thread after Cheltenham.Good Luck.
    Are you having an Ante-post wager on your

    Sir des Champs

    for the Gold Cup at 16/1? :wink:

    #490433
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    Thanks Gord, though a couple more crossbars like Faugheen and Vautour will make me happy :)

    Haven’t backed Sir Des Champs yet but that’s not to say I won’t at some stage. Happy to be a member of the Holywell Club at the moment. Have a feeling SDC’s best chance of a Gold Cup win may have passed, but we’ll see how things shape up this season.

    I doubt it will be long before my first Cheltenham punt mind :wink:

    #490439
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    Good luck with this year’s thread Tommy.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #490442
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16044

    Good luck Tommy.

    It won’t surprise you to know that I’ll be extra interested in you getting off to a winning start……..with "TGC" :D

    #490463
    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8433

    Good luck Tommy i open a jumps thread soon too be after flat season is over what horses you waiting for mine below.

    BLACK HERCLAUES Top chasing prospect he be but going over hurdles this season.

    BRAIR HILL.Think go nov chasing route this season.

    DEVILS BRIDE.Will improve a stone now chasing he is horse i rate highly i do.

    #490480
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34688

    Briar Hill is on the radar of mine to Darren.

    Best of luck for the upcoming season Tommy always worth noting your selections.

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

    #490518
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    Thanks for the comments lads, the great thing about that run from The Game Changer is that things can only get better :?

    I had been loving the lack of talk about Briar Hill so keep shtum :twisted:

    #490811
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    A rare bet for me across the pond on a weekday, in the first race at Perth.

    BLACKLION

    looked a promising sort in bumpers for Nigel Twiston Davies and is fancied to make a winning hurdles debut. Gordon Elliott’s Pumped Up Kicks looks the danger but I think she’ll struggle to concede weight to the favourite.

    Perth 2.25
    Blacklion
    €25 win @ 6/5

    - €55

    #490831
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    I’ve just convinced myself to have a nibble on Djakadam for the Ryanair with this post in the Cheltenham section:

    As always, this looks a tricky betting race at this very early stage of the season.

    A bit of a dark horse worth keeping an eye on imo is Djakadam. It was probably too far from home to know how things would have panned out when he departed the JLT in March, but he looked to be travelling very well at the time. Still just a 5yo, he’s open to plenty of improvement and at 33/1 looks the best value at the moment.

    Ryanair Chase
    Djakadam
    €5 win @ 33/1 (BV)

    - €60 (€5 of which is ante post)

    #490832
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    Update of ante post bet from last year’s thread, posted on 18/03/14:

    2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup
    Holywell
    €5 e/w @ 50/1 (B365)

    - €70 (€15)

    #490835
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    A rare bet for me across the pond on a weekday, in the first race at Perth.

    BLACKLION

    looked a promising sort in bumpers for Nigel Twiston Davies and is fancied to make a winning hurdles debut. Gordon Elliott’s Pumped Up Kicks looks the danger but I think she’ll struggle to concede weight to the favourite.

    Perth 2.25
    Blacklion
    €25 win @ 6/5

    Won at SP 4/9, nice to get off the mark.


    - €15 (€15)

    #491003
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34688

    Paddy Power are up and running. With all the multiple options of races it’s always a market to look at. I think I’ll leave the machine alone at that price at the moment as they are so fragile but Briar Hill at 8’s could be nibbled at. What do you think he will be aimed at Tommy?

    http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/racing-specials/long-term/cheltenham-festival/to-win-at-the-festival

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

    #491083
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    Paddy Power are up and running. With all the multiple options of races it’s always a market to look at. I think I’ll leave the machine alone at that price at the moment as they are so fragile but Briar Hill at 8’s could be nibbled at. What do you think he will be aimed at Tommy?

    http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/racing-specials/long-term/cheltenham-festival/to-win-at-the-festival

    I’d love to see him aimed at the RSA Nathan, think he’s tailor made for it. They also have Don Poli, Pont Alexandre and more as possibles for that but that’s the risk we take if wanting to have an ante post bet. I think he’s been forgotten somewhat, given that he gave Very Wood and Apache Jack a solid beatiing giving away plenty of weight last spring. He was considered the Mullins’ banker ahead of both Vautour and Faugheen last year by Patrick Mullins which speaks volumes about his ability imo.

    For whatever me reason he was available at 55’s and 50’s on Betfair for small money today, which I felt very much obliged to take.

    RSA Chase
    Briar Hill
    €2 win @ 54/1 (BF)
    €10 win @ 49/1 (BF)

    - €27 (€27)

    #491232
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    Paddy Power are up and running. With all the multiple options of races it’s always a market to look at. I think I’ll leave the machine alone at that price at the moment as they are so fragile but Briar Hill at 8’s could be nibbled at. What do you think he will be aimed at Tommy?

    http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/racing-specials/long-term/cheltenham-festival/to-win-at-the-festival

    I’d love to see him aimed at the RSA Nathan, think he’s tailor made for it. They also have Don Poli, Pont Alexandre and more as possibles for that but that’s the risk we take if wanting to have an ante post bet. I think he’s been forgotten somewhat, given that he gave Very Wood and Apache Jack a solid beatiing giving away plenty of weight last spring. He was considered the Mullins’ banker ahead of both Vautour and Faugheen last year by Patrick Mullins which speaks volumes about his ability imo.

    For whatever me reason he was available at 55’s and 50’s on Betfair for small money today, which I felt very much obliged to take.

    RSA Chase
    Briar Hill
    €2 win @ 54/1 (BF)
    €10 win @ 49/1 (BF)

    Have read that Briar Hill is to remain over hurdles. Laid off my €12 stake at 49/1.

    - €15 (€15)

    #491270
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    I’m pleasantly surprised to see

    Road To Riches

    available at 2/1 for tomorrow’s Grade 2 chase at Gowran Park. He was an emphatic winner of the Galway Plate and his form when fresh is excellent. In the past two seasons his form has tailed off after a few runs but Meade wisely gave him a break before the spring festivals last season. Sizing Europe vies for favouritism here after his renaissance at Punchestown in the spring. However, that race fell apart with Hidden Cyclone and Module departing and Somersby running poorly. He’s not getting any younger and is vulnerable to an improver. Baily Green is a solid operator but I was disappointed that he couldn’t make the grade at G1 level last season. He was held by Sizzing n this last year and could be held again tomorrow.

    Gowran 4.45
    Road To Riches
    €20 win @ 2/1 (PP)

    - €35

    #491277
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    I’m pleasantly surprised to see

    Road To Riches

    available at 2/1 for tomorrow’s Grade 2 chase at Gowran Park. He was an emphatic winner of the Galway Plate and his form when fresh is excellent. In the past two seasons his form has tailed off after a few runs but Meade wisely gave him a break before the spring festivals last season. Sizing Europe vies for favouritism here after his renaissance at Punchestown in the spring. However, that race fell apart with Hidden Cyclone and Module departing and Somersby running poorly. He’s not getting any younger and is vulnerable to an improver. Baily Green is a solid operator but I was disappointed that he couldn’t make the grade at G1 level last season. He was held by Sizzing n this last year and could be held again tomorrow.

    Gowran 4.45
    Road To Riches
    €20 win @ 2/1 (PP)

    9/4 now with Boyles.

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