Home › Forums › Betting Chat – Bets & Tips › THM Goes Jumping 2014-2015
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thehorsesmouth.
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- December 28, 2014 at 15:24 #499771
At Fisher’s Cross looks a bit of a dodgepot to me. I had no problem with having him as a lay at today’s odds. A real old donkey who’s win from The New One looks like some sort of tear in the fabric of the space/time continuum in retrospect.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
December 29, 2014 at 23:40 #499905Christmas Thoughts
1)
Faugheen
is in a different league to anything else around at the moment. He once again showed that two miles and good ground are no issue for him and once again jumped well at the minimum trip. I thought he could be special when he won his bumper but he’s turned out to be even better than I hoped for. Jezki and The New One are very good horses but they’re going to get a serious beating if this horse turns up in March, in my opinion. Faugheen is a speedier horse than either, which is quite something for a horse who has won over three miles on heavy ground.
2)
Gilgamboa
is one of a number of exciting novice chasers this season. He had his run cut off when they tightened turning for home at Limerick on St Stephen’s Day, yet always looked in control. I think two miles might be better than two and a half for him, but wherever he goes at Cheltenham he has place prospects at the very least.
3)
Whatsforuwontgobyu
is going to be one well handicapped horse. Placed in the Land Rover Bumper, he has since run down the field in two maiden hurdles. Noel Meade’s Snow Falcon and Russian Bill have come out of the bumper to show a decent level of ability in the past week and I’ll be very interested in Whatsforuwontgobyu when he steps into handicap company.
Rathpatrick
is another hurdler in the same silks who has shown decent bumper form, another handy time of it at Limerick a couple of days back.
4) Those of us with tasty prices on
Holywell
for the Gold Cup won’t have lost much sleep on the back of the King George and Lexus. Silviniaco Conti was an impressive winner of the former but has ran in two Gold Cups without winning and it’s hard to get the image of him crawling up the hill last year out of my mind. There was nothing in behind him that would put the fear in you either. Same goes for the Lexus. What impressed me about Road To Riches was that he showed he didn’t have to dominate the race to win. He stayed on powerfully to win, showing stamina I doubted he had. I’d prefer him to Silviniaco Conti but Holywell appeals more than either at 14/1.
5)
Vautour
didn’t seem himself, sweated badly and didn’t jump near as well as he did in his beginners. If he hadn’t run what price would he be for Cheltenham races given the beating he handed out to Clarcam last time? I’m willing to draw a line through it.
6)
Sizing John
is going to make a very good chaser. He didn’t have to beat much to win the Future Champions Novice hurdle but he already looks like he’ll be a better horse over fences. Makes
Douvan
‘s maiden hurdle win look all the more special now too, he wasn’t out of second gear to beat Sizing John twelve lengths.
7) Henry de Bromhead looks to have a very exciting prospect in
Identity Thief
, who won a maiden hurdle yesterday. He beat the aforementioned Snow Falcon a shade comfortably. Bryan Cooper seemed at pains not to give the horse too hard a time and I’d expect him to be at least Graded quality, particularly over a fence.
8- A few of Mullins horses ran very poorly.
Un Atout
doesn’t look the same horse as he was before he got injured.
Briar Hill
travelled well to the second last where he made a very bad mistake. He was heavily eased after that.
Ballycasey
‘s run was more puzzling.
9) On a more positive note for the stable,
Up For Review
looks another fine prospect. He looks like he’ll be a staying chaser in time and reminds me of On His Own.
Bellshill
ran well today also, giving Vigil 4 lbs and only going down by a length. He’ll have to improve to win at Cheltenham but it’s a long time until then and a lot can happen between now and then.
10) Today’s novice chase was a cracker.
Apache Stronghold
‘s jumping was electric and I don’t think it was the trip that beat him. He came up against a top notch opponent in the shape of
Don Poli
. Whatever happens in the Gold Cup this year, the older horses will have their work cut out in 2016 as these novices look exceptional. I’d take either of today’s pair to beat Kings Palace. It doesn’t matter what race Don Poli goes for because I think he’ll win either the RSA or the four miler. Apache Stronghold will place in the JLT or RSA. Two serious horses.
11)
Martello Tower
is one tough S.O.B. The fall he got last time out was horrific, and to battle the way he did today at Limerick was admirable. Danny Mullins has had a great few days and surely got great pleasure out of this one for his mother.
12) While I started with a future Champion Hurdler, it seems fitting to wrap things up with
Hurricane Fly
, who won yet another Grade 1 today. He’s not as good as he was a few years ago imo but he still retains tigerish battling qualities. We could look back on this period as a golden era for racing, with Hurricane Fly, Kauto Star, Sprinter Sacre, Denman, Big Buck’s and hopefully Faugheen over jumps and Sea The Stars, Frankel and Zarkava on the flat.
December 30, 2014 at 00:08 #499906Currently waiting him out myself THM……definitely one to keep on side.
Enjoyed the racing over Christmas, and one who I’m keeping in mind for Punchestown (seems a long time away) is Ttebbob
. Hardly knocked about yesterday, and he’s surely better than that. Also very happy with Jetson
…..not worried about him going down yesterday, and I think come March he might just give me a decent run for my money.January 4, 2015 at 13:24 #500375A huge 15 mins for me ante post book now, with
Tell Us More
about to face a quality rival for the first time. He needs to be winning this to justify odds of 6/1 for the Neptune and my 20/1 probably won’t be worth a whole lot if he’s beaten fair and square. However, I didn’t label him this season’s Faugheen for nothing.
January 4, 2015 at 13:38 #500376A huge 15 mins for me ante post book now, with
Tell Us More
about to face a quality rival for the first time. He needs to be winning this to justify odds of 6/1 for the Neptune and my 20/1 probably won’t be worth a whole lot if he’s beaten fair and square. However, I didn’t label him this season’s Faugheen for nothing.
Disappointing finishing effort from Tell Us More. He jumped superbly and tanked into the straight, but when McKinley laid it down to him after the last he had no answer. Hard to know what to make of it to be honest.
January 8, 2015 at 21:14 #500801Any thoughts on boylesports hurdle and big chase handicap to.Along with betfair hurdle i ask bob too.
January 9, 2015 at 21:27 #500923A horse I’ve been really taken by this winter is
Alpha Des Obeaux
. It’s surprising to see him running at Punchestown tomorrow over two miles, given how well he stayed over three miles last time at Cork. His best chance tomorrow will surely be to pour it on from some way out, but I doubt tomorrow is the endgame with this horse. Definitely one to keep an eye on. Could be one for the Martin Pipe at the festival.
January 9, 2015 at 21:31 #500924Any thoughts on boylesports hurdle and big chase handicap to.Along with betfair hurdle i ask bob too.
Haven’t had a proper look yet Darren, but thought Harvey Logan was interesting in the hurdle and Djakadam in the chase, but he could go for the Thyestes. I’d prefer to see him run here, he’s not short of speed and the Thyestes is usually a slog and The Westener Boy just has to jump to win that
January 14, 2015 at 19:42 #501509A horse I’ve been really taken by this winter is
Alpha Des Obeaux
. It’s surprising to see him running at Punchestown tomorrow over two miles, given how well he stayed over three miles last time at Cork. His best chance tomorrow will surely be to pour it on from some way out, but I doubt tomorrow is the endgame with this horse. Definitely one to keep an eye on. Could be one for the Martin Pipe at the festival.
Alpha ran exactly as I thought he would on Saturday. He doesn’t have the speed for two miles but he kept on at one pace for second behind the impressive winner, Douvan. I see Mouse Morris has said they’ll probably keep him away form Cheltenham this season.
Another exciting Gigginstown horse runs tomorrow in the shape of
Milsean
. This giant might need soft ground to be seen at his best but has the potential to be a top class staying chaser in years to come.
January 16, 2015 at 14:23 #501638Do you know of any negative news about Carrigmoorna Rock since her last race? I did think she was cut a little too much after her last win but she has since eased and an Irish bookmaker is now offering the standout.
January 16, 2015 at 14:31 #501639Another exciting Gigginstown horse runs tomorrow in the shape of
Milsean
. This giant might need soft ground to be seen at his best but has the potential to be a top class staying chaser in years to come.
Just for a change another Mullins hotpot gets turned over by a stable mate. I didn’t see the race Tommy, any excuses for Milsean?
1/4 Fav, ouch!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
January 16, 2015 at 17:44 #501655Do you know of any negative news about Carrigmoorna Rock since her last race? I did think she was cut a little too much after her last win but she has since eased and an Irish bookmaker is now offering the standout.
Afraid I’m no help to you Stilvi, haven’t heard anything.
January 16, 2015 at 17:48 #501657Another exciting Gigginstown horse runs tomorrow in the shape of
Milsean
. This giant might need soft ground to be seen at his best but has the potential to be a top class staying chaser in years to come.
Just for a change another Mullins hotpot gets turned over by a stable mate. I didn’t see the race Tommy, any excuses for Milsean?
1/4 Fav, ouch!
It wasn’t that dissimilar to the Tell Us More race, except he went from cruise control to sinking ship far quicker!
You think 1/4 is bad, he hit 1.03 in running
January 18, 2015 at 01:55 #501933Some decent racing today at Leapordstown Tommy.
Very interested to see how the half brother to Jezki, and my old pal Jetson,
Jett
, gets on today. Hoping he’s going to be worth following.
January 18, 2015 at 15:09 #502012Has there been any talk over there about Arthur Moore giving the game up?
Another dire effort from Sea Beat today. Main owner has moved his best horse. There can’t really be much left.
Even worse run today. Seemingly outpaced from the start and had no chance after a hundred yards. This despite trainer hopeful of horse being placed. No surprise if he is moved as well.
January 22, 2015 at 15:42 #502453Just read your comments on Ginger’s thread.
I wouldn’t give up on Noble Emperor. Everything about the ride suggested today wasn’t the day. Bit surprised they started him out over that distance. I would expect him to be dropped in trip and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he ends up winning Grade 1’s this season.
Mystified by Djakadam. I appreciate winning very competitive handicaps is a different ball game to what he was used to but that performance was surely too bad to be true. He appeared to get completely outpaced at the crucial stage and then stay on when out of contention. Had stamina been the issue he would surely have just fallen over the line. Is it beyond the realms of possibility that Mullins sent him out undercooked on a surface that reduced the race to a war of attrition. If he shows no ill effects I would be inclined to try him over three miles on a quicker surface.
Well it wasn’t quicker ground but suddenly the future looks a lot brighter. Presumably, freshen him up and then next stop the big one. He should still be improving so in an open year anything is possible.
January 23, 2015 at 23:21 #502602Kauto Grand Mogol very easy winner. Trainer apparently struggling to explain previous run. Perhaps it came too quickly?
What have you made of the spate Mullins bumper winners? I know he has done it twice but visually I have preferred the other three to Bordini.
It’s a strange one, definitely didn’t look himself behind Free Expression for whatever reason. That has been his only run left handed, not suggesting that’s definitely the reason for the below par effort, but you never know.
Thought Pylonthepressure’s bumper was probably the weakest, but he did it well. I liked Stone Hard a lot, it was a better race and he’s the type to improve for a step up in trip. He accounted for Rock N Rhythm in better style than Livelovelaugh. I think Bordini has been good, when Attribution came to him I thought he was in trouble but he pulled away again in the closing stages. I think he deserves to be favourite for the Cheltenham bumper at this stage. That run from Attribution gives me hope that Bellshill can win his winners’ bumper and book a ticket to Cheltenham.
I doubt Stone Hard will go to Cheltenham but he’d be mine if I was allowed to have one of them

Alvisio Ville is entered in maiden hurdles at Leopardstown, keep an eye out for him, have heard good things.
Very impressed by Stone Hard and delighted he seems to have came on for his debut which was full of promise. Would still be my pick of this season’s bumper horses.
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