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I couldn’t pick my nose on here at the moment, only seem to back winners when the site is down and out
I think everyone has bad spells, hopefully it won’t last long. Perhaps a few smaller each-ways at bigger prices might help turn things around?
It was a good thing I didn’t part with any money on the race. Was lucky enough to have a free bet on the race and plumped for Minella Present but he was effectively beaten once Johnson somewhat strangely decided it was a good idea to hold up a horse who wouldn’t settle.
For sure, last season I had a run of 13 straight losers and another of nine straight, and there were plenty of short price runners among those. What’s a bit frustrating is I’m actually having a decent enough season so far but am having a mare with the ones on here. Think I might revert to what TAPK did last season and use the thread for discussion of horses rather than specific bets. Would take the pressure off and allow me to concentrate on the horses. Will have to have a think about it.
Quick look at tomorrow’s action. I’m happy to see there has been some support for
Kagpa De Cerisy
in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. I thought he was worth a punt at 33/1 but I’m not overly confident because there are plenty of negatives against him. It’s encouraging that he pitches up here after an absence as they must feel he can put in a good showing.
Elsewhere on the Cheltenham card, there is Irish interest in the bumper in the shape of Willie Mullins’
Daring Carlotta
. She has won three bumpers now and her price ranges from 7/4 to 5/2 at the moment. While there is plenty of word for her, there are a string of British contenders with wins to their name and I don’t know much about their form. I’d be willing to let Daring Carlotta run at the prices.
An Irish horse I’d be more interested in across the water is Tony Martin’s
Heathfield
, who runs at Uttoxeter. I’m convinced he’s a well handicapped horse, but the question is whether he’ll go on the ground which is described as heavy. He could be so well in that it won’t matter and it will be interesting to see what way his price goes. He’s currently 7/4.
At Punchestown a couple of Gigginstown horses are of interest.
Valseur Lido
should have a straightforward task opening his account over fences if he’s straight enough. He was much the best of these over hurdles and came home in front of some decent horses when second to Faugheen at Punchestown. He’s 8/11 and the market will probably provide a guide to his level of fitness.
Later on the card,
Alpha Des Obeaux
runs in a two and a half mile maiden hurdle. I thought he created an excellent impression in what was surely a greatly inadequate test of stamina over two miles at Cork last time out. The form of that race might not be worth much but I’d be hoping for a big step forward from him.
In the bumper, the Mullins and Gigginstown team are represented by
Master Of Verse
, who won a Dromahane point under Jamie Codd last year. There doesn’t look to be much in the way of opposition so it will be disappointing if he can’t win.
You know I’ve been over this course many a time before Tommy, but take some solace in the fact that the most important thing is you’re betting the winners, and putting them up on here is only a bonus. I’m also happy to confirm, that having had a few discussions with you, you have been in very fine form away from here, and you were on fire a few weeks ago. It’s sods law.
I’ll never do a "normal" DLAP thread again as I think I end up putting up bets for the sake of the thread, and that’s the road to ruin for sure. I remember betting Twigline a couple of years back on an old thread, something like £20 @ 9-4, and I only bet her cause I had a thread. She fell at the last with the race won, and I was more p1ssed off with the thread being £20 down, than I was with losing the cash. Strange. Having a loss on the thread can also put you off putting up bets that go on and win, and that hacks me off as well. I missed out putting up 2 winners on my AP thread, The Wow Signal @ 20’s, and Huntsmans Close @ 16’s because I was more worried about gambling the balance on my thread, than I was about gambling the hard cash. Again……strange.
Next year, I’ll only be doing Exchange bets, or discussing future targets on my Ante-Post thread, as it’s the laying off where I normally make the profit. I had a great season Ante-Post last year, and was way ahead, had a great time of it, but the thread was still 3 figures red, because of stupid Mug 31’s, each way bets etc. The galling thing with these bets is I only put them up to record some sort of p/l, as it’s always a bit "take my word for it" with Betfair bets.
I put up Court Minstrel and Operating as horses to follow in the spring on my AP thread, and they both won at very nice prices. I was delighted to have put them up, but didn’t record the bets, so didn’t impact on my p/l on here, but to be honest, I wasn’t that bothered. It’s just a nice feeling to have put up a winner, I think that’s the most important thing.
I think I hate the red loss figure on here, a lot more than I enjoy the green profit figure, so maybe just discussing fancies, than getting hung up on p/l is the way ahead.
Having discussed a good few winners there for myself, in the interest of balance and fairness…………despite the wins of The Wow Signal, and Huntsmans Close, there’s been about half a dozen AP bets not recorded, that have been stuffed, and my current p/l on that thread isn’t that far off the mark. The less said about my bet on Golden Wonder in The Munster National, the better
I think you’re right Bobby, even though I didn’t put up any bets on here today I was happy to have gave good mentions to Valseur Lido, who won as he liked, Alpha Des Obeaux, who was backed from 2/1 to 4/6 before romping home in a maiden hurdle, and Heathfield at Uttoxeter, who may have slipped under the radar of many with bigger meetings on elsewheretoday. Giving a rundown of my thoughts without detailing the bets could be the way forward, if only for my sanity
I remember that Twigline race well, still hurts
Looking at tomorrow’s card at Punchestown, the two graded novice chases look very competitive. On first impressions, Chancol in the two miler and Shanahans Turn in the longer race both look overpriced, both at 4/1.
I think Alechi Inois has been well placed to run up a sequence and could struggle to give weight away tomorrow. Both
Chancol
and Sizing Granite won their beginners chases well and the former looks the bet over this course and distance. I’m also keen to take on Very Wood with
Shanahans Turn
, who put Wounded Warrior to the sword with ease on his fencing debut. I’m a big fan of Very Wood but I’m not sure tomorrow’s conditions will see him in the best light.
The maiden hurdle with
No More Heroes
and
Outlander
looks a real treat. The former is priced at 4/7 by PP with the latter a 6/4 shot and I don’t think either is worth a bet at those odds. Should be a good race.
Art Of Security
looks interesting in the bumper. He finished third behind Forgotten Rules on his only start and Sizing John gave the form a boost recently when winning a maiden hurdle.
I’m really looking forward to the hurdling debut of
Black Hercules
at Cork. He was one of the top bumper horses last year looks sure to make a decent staying hurdler. Tomorrow’s trip is two miles but he should be far too good for the opposition even if he’s not a betting opportunity. The well touted
Sempre Medici
also runs at Cork and it will be interesting to see how he gets on in the opener.
At Cheltenham,
Emerging Talent
runs in a Grade 2 novice hurdle.
Commissioned
looks the main opposition. He comes into the race in good form and the Ferguson horses are flying at the moment. I think Emerging Talent could be quite decent and this race should give us a better idea as to his level of ability.
In the novice chase, it’s a pity Sgt Reckless doesn’t run. Even though the ground may not be to his liking,
Court Minstrel
looks a big price at 7/2. He was the best of these over hurdles and has made an impressive start to the chasing game.
I’m very happy with my 25/1 about
Baradari
, who has been well supported even before being selected by Pricewise. I think he’s capable of a big effort and hopefully he’ll reward me with a place at least. I think
Clondaw Warrior
is going to be a big danger. He actually won a bumper at the course and looks a completely new horse now that he’s gone to Willie Mullins.
Last but not least a mention to the great
Hurricane Fly
, who bids for a 20th Grade 1 victory. I think he could be up against it tomorrow but really hope he can do it. He’ll raise the roof in Punchestown if he does.
Just wondering if you knew if any reason was given as to why Barry Cash was jocked-off Big Shu in favour of Paul Carberry. How many more defeats do they need before accepting it was a mistake? The horse travelled exuberantly for Cash, hasn’t really done the same for Carberry and consequently has had some pretty hard races. It must be doubtful whether he will ever recapture the spark of 2013.
Just wondering if you knew if any reason was given as to why Barry Cash was jocked-off Big Shu in favour of Paul Carberry. How many more defeats do they need before accepting it was a mistake? The horse travelled exuberantly for Cash, hasn’t really done the same for Carberry and consequently has had some pretty hard races. It must be doubtful whether he will ever recapture the spark of 2013.
Sorry Stilvi I have no idea why Cash was jocked off, was a disappointing effort yesterday in particular, as you say he seems to be missing that ‘spark’.
Looking at tomorrow’s card at Punchestown, the two graded novice chases look very competitive. On first impressions, Chancol in the two miler and Shanahans Turn in the longer race both look overpriced, both at 4/1.
I think Alechi Inois has been well placed to run up a sequence and could struggle to give weight away tomorrow. Both
Chancol
and Sizing Granite won their beginners chases well and the former looks the bet over this course and distance. I’m also keen to take on Very Wood with
Shanahans Turn
, who put Wounded Warrior to the sword with ease on his fencing debut. I’m a big fan of Very Wood but I’m not sure tomorrow’s conditions will see him in the best light.
Two out of two today, both at 4/1. Court Minstrel is a non runner now so my remaining bets are in the Greatwood, where I’ve added Clondaw Warrior to Baradari.
Thought Emerging Talent ran another promising race at Cheltenham, a horse who still has a lot to learn.
Last but not least a mention to the great
Hurricane Fly
, who bids for a 20th Grade 1 victory. I think he could be up against it tomorrow but really hope he can do it. He’ll raise the roof in Punchestown if he does.
Fantastic win for Hurricane Fly at Punchestown
Looking at tomorrow’s card at Punchestown, the two graded novice chases look very competitive. On first impressions, Chancol in the two miler and Shanahans Turn in the longer race both look overpriced, both at 4/1.
I think Alechi Inois has been well placed to run up a sequence and could struggle to give weight away tomorrow. BothChancol
and Sizing Granite won their beginners chases well and the former looks the bet over this course and distance. I’m also keen to take on Very Wood with
Shanahans Turn
, who put Wounded Warrior to the sword with ease on his fencing debut. I’m a big fan of Very Wood but I’m not sure tomorrow’s conditions will see him in the best light.
The maiden hurdle with
No More Heroes
and
Outlander
looks a real treat. The former is priced at 4/7 by PP with the latter a 6/4 shot and I don’t think either is worth a bet at those odds. Should be a good race.
Art Of Security
looks interesting in the bumper. He finished third behind Forgotten Rules on his only start and Sizing John gave the form a boost recently when winning a maiden hurdle.
Bordini
, looks a nice type. He has a lovely head carriage and foiled the gamble on Falcon Crest with ease. Speaking of Mullins bumper horses,
Bells Hill
is supposedly very highly regarded.
I’m really looking forward to the hurdling debut of
Black Hercules
at Cork. He was one of the top bumper horses last year looks sure to make a decent staying hurdler. Tomorrow’s trip is two miles but he should be far too good for the opposition even if he’s not a betting opportunity. The well touted
Sempre Medici
also runs at Cork and it will be interesting to see how he gets on in the opener.
Black Hercules
goes about his business.
Sempre Medici
was good too but his jumping was only fair.
At Cheltenham,
Emerging Talent
runs in a Grade 2 novice hurdle.
Commissioned
looks the main opposition. He comes into the race in good form and the Ferguson horses are flying at the moment. I think Emerging Talent could be quite decent and this race should give us a better idea as to his level of ability.
Emerging Talent
, who just got run out of things in the last 50 yards or so. I think he’ll be seen at his best coming off a strong pace. He could be a County Hurdle horse.
In the novice chase, it’s a pity Sgt Reckless doesn’t run. Even though the ground may not be to his liking,
Court Minstrel
looks a big price at 7/2. He was the best of these over hurdles and has made an impressive start to the chasing game.
I’m very happy with my 25/1 about
Baradari
, who has been well supported even before being selected by Pricewise. I think he’s capable of a big effort and hopefully he’ll reward me with a place at least. I think
Clondaw Warrior
is going to be a big danger. He actually won a bumper at the course and looks a completely new horse now that he’s gone to Willie Mullins.
Clondaw Warrior
ran a cracker considering the crawl they went. He’s another who can win a big two mile handicap hurdle.
Last but not least a mention to the great
Hurricane Fly
, who bids for a 20th Grade 1 victory. I think he could be up against it tomorrow but really hope he can do it. He’ll raise the roof in Punchestown if he does.
Bordini
, looks a nice type. He has a lovely head carriage and foiled the gamble on Falcon Crest with ease. Speaking of Mullins bumper horses,
Bells Hill
is supposedly very highly regarded.
At Cheltenham,
Emerging Talent
runs in a Grade 2 novice hurdle.
Commissioned
looks the main opposition. He comes into the race in good form and the Ferguson horses are flying at the moment. I think Emerging Talent could be quite decent and this race should give us a better idea as to his level of ability.
Emerging Talent
, who just got run out of things in the last 50 yards or so. I think he’ll be seen at his best coming off a strong pace. He could be a County Hurdle horse.
I made a note of Bellshill when I watched his point. Wasn’t aware Mullins had him. The winner went to McCain. Bellshill is a full brother to the winners Foxbridge and Chieftains Choice from the family of One Man. No doubt he will go off (very) short on debut if he is already being touted.
For me the jury is out regarding Emerging Talent. That’s twice he has been fancied and turned over. He should stay further (it is the family of Harcon) but he isn’t helping himself by racing too freely. Golan has yet to convince as a sire. Perhaps this one wants better ground but given his size you expect that chasing should be his game sooner rather than later.
tommy left a post for you what you think of CHAMPAGNE FEVER my gold cup horse on at 20/1
Tommy what you think of CHAMPAGNE FEVER he my gold cup horse at 20/1 hope he goes for that race not Ryanair
He’s a sserious horse Darren, one of the highlights of last season for me was himself and Defy Logic flaking it down the back in Leopardstown, nothing could stay with them such was the pace they were going. I think he’ll need to settle better to win a Gold Cup. That’s entirely possible but I’d prefer to wait and see how he goes in the King George before making a judgement about Cheltenham. He’d be very hard to beat in a Ryanair.
Bordini
, looks a nice type. He has a lovely head carriage and foiled the gamble on Falcon Crest with ease. Speaking of Mullins bumper horses,
Bells Hill
is supposedly very highly regarded.
I made a note of Bellshill when I watched his point. Wasn’t aware Mullins had him. The winner went to McCain. Bellshill is a full brother to the winners Foxbridge and Chieftains Choice from the family of One Man. No doubt he will go off (very) short on debut if he is already being touted.
Bellshill running tomorrow at Thurles, with the now Henry de Bromhead trained Attribution the main opposition. I could be wrong but I think Attribution, a half brother to Punjabi, is Gigginstown’s first horse with de Bromhead.
I’ve heard Bellshill is among the best of Mullins’ bumper horses, and while I wouldn’t fancy going in at short odds on him tomorrow, I’ve had a small punt for the Champion Bumper at 25/1 in the hope he lives up to the hype.
You would be disappointed if he couldn’t win today. Attribution’s race hasn’t worked out at all.
I made the mistake of backing Tarare (where’s he now?) for last year’s bumper and won’t be doing anyting similar this time around. The main problem being he probably has 12-15 candidates every year. Almost as bad as trying to pinpoint O’Brien’s Classic horses.
On the subject of Mullins I was waiting to see Long Dog last season and I see he has been quoted for the Supreme. He was pretty impressive in winning his only start and he looked to have a bit of scope. Not much good of course if he has no aptitude for jumping.
It probably wasn’t much of a race but I thought Outlander did it pretty well yesterday.
You would be disappointed if he couldn’t win today. Attribution’s race hasn’t worked out at all.
I made the mistake of backing Tarare (where’s he now?) for last year’s bumper and won’t be doing anyting similar this time around. The main problem being he probably has 12-15 candidates every year. Almost as bad as trying to pinpoint O’Brien’s Classic horses.
On the subject of Mullins I was waiting to see Long Dog last season and I see he has been quoted for the Supreme. He was pretty impressive in winning his only start and he looked to have a bit of scope. Not much good of course if he has no aptitude for jumping.
It probably wasn’t much of a race but I thought Outlander did it pretty well yesterday.
The winner of Attribution’s race, Uncle Danny, ran well behind Free Expression last time and should have no trouble picking up a maiden hurdle. Attribution shaped like there was improvement to come that day but it will be disappointing if Bellshill doesn’t win.
Mullins on Tarare in the RP stable tour:
He’s a giant of a horse who won his only point-to-point. He was due to make his racecourse debut last season but a hoof injury scuppered plans. Because he’s so big it was a slow process to get him right but he’s on the road to recovery and back in light training. He should be ready to start off in a bumper in the second half of the season.
Long Dog is actually entered in the opening maiden hurdle at Navan on Sunday but he’s not qualified for it, but I expect he’ll be out soon enough.
Thanks for the Tarare quote. Perhaps he was being aimed towards Cheltenham before that injury scuppered any plans?
I think Bellshill is almost certainly better than he looked today but he has to show plenty more to appeal as a likely Cheltenham winner. Hard to understand why bookmakers would shorten him after that performance.
Hopefully, Home Farm has turned a corner. I backed him for last year’s National and have done the same again.
Some really great shots from the roving camera today. Gave you a much better idea of how fast the horses were travelling.
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