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As we are so close to the ‘off’ I shall forgo the usual write up.
Just to say putting forward ACCLAIM THE NATION e/w for your consideration who put up career high numbers last time out and although on his highest handicap mark I believe still has e/w claims.
good luck to allI know others will not agree and may even resent my views but however I feel they must be shown the light of day if only for my own peace of mind.
Remember when 1999 rolled over to 2000 the ‘experts’ were forecasting computer meltdown …how computers would simply cease to function planes would fall out of the sky,banks would stop processing wages & bills,vital hospital equipment would stop etc etc.The 2YK bug as it became known according to the ‘geeks’ needed fixing.They in effect put themselves in a ‘win win’ situation …if nothing happened they say we prevented it ….if something did happen,it’s I told you so!
I can’t help feeling we find ourselves in a deja vu situation with the ‘experts’ taking the same position as the 2YK geeks claiming to have fixed it if all turns out ok and I told you so if not.
Just a few thoughts.
good luck to allBack in March I expressed the view TREACHEROUS had no luck in running at my local Dunstall Park course finishing hard on the winner & placed horses heels all dressed up but nowhere to go.Following two runs on the turf since the resumption of racing finishing second on reappearance over 7f then winning the second back over his best trip of 6f sweeping past the entire field from last to first between the 2f & 1f markers and probably hitting the front too soon just inside the final furlong.Returns today to a preferred synthetic surface off the same mark as that earlier race and to me looks to hold good E/W claims of at least hitting the frame on this straight track thus hopefully avoiding traffic problems.Just over an hour later VENTUROUS e/w makes his third appearance for the month of June and given the progress shown between the first two a similar run today will see this gelding involved in the business end of things.
good luck to allYesterday Treacherous ran a bit free from his draw and all in all didn’t disgrace himself,however I would take issue with the rider of Venturous,Hollie Doyle,who gave the gelding far too much to do with the tactics employed and then ‘blamed’ traffic problems.While not privy to the instructions given to the jockey I do believe they should use some common sense as the winners style of running is well known and although a veteran still has ability.
Now for today and over the sea we go to the Curragh for the 5f Premier Handicap which I’ve come to like over the past few years and have had successful investments,which always helps.I shall be opposing a very strong favourite currently priced at around 11/4 with a mare in foal to Footstepsinthesand following a very good return to the track .For a 5yo the mare MAID OF SPIRIT e/w has very few miles under her belt and was switched to her present trainer only recently from Clive Cox since her last outing in a fillies Listed event during Oct ’19.Although she stays 6f isn’t short of speed and don’t believe this drop to the minimum trip will be a problem following on from her win here earlier in the month when she registered career high numbers giving her at least e/w claims and a a profit for us.
Can’t say I was surprised yesterday with Aidan O’Brien running so many horses in the Irish Derby because it’s not a ‘normal’ stable by which I’m not referring to the ability of the inmates nor the prize money earned but for it’s patrons it’s about ‘making stallions’ for the future where the income over many years far outstrips the money which can be earned racing.So I’m never really taken aback like when Sovereign won the Irish Derby last season which was only his second career success from,counting yesterday’s 2020 debut,10 runs … hardly inspiring stuff?
good luck to allJust creeping into fourth yesterday Maid of Spirit paid out e/w with most bookmakers.
Must say the current flat season is taking on an odd feeling for me without the usual slow introduction early on of the sprinters finding their feet to the full throttle roar of the summer with it’s hotly contested handicaps.For some trainers it’s been a very positive experience from the starters gun while others like the handler of today’s selection it’s been relatively slow.However Rod Millman is now finding his feet and I believe that is also the case for the filly BETTYS HOPE e/w who last time out recorded career best numbers since winning the Super Sprint in July.Bit pissed off the field has been reduced so only two places but believe this filly can make her presence felt in this field.
good luck to allNormally I would be having at least a couple of bets a week by this time but the late start has made such a difference to the season as a whole with reduced money on offer I’m thinking the owners & trainers are possibly going to be very picky where their top handicappers are sent.However believe I have found an investment to put forward for your consideration away from the main focus of attention in Chelmsford’s opening contest.Foaled on the final day of April WADDAT e/w to my eyes has made up into a nice handicapper who has shown progressive form & numbers in his career to date.Completed a hat trick of wins last time out over this course & distance controlling the race from the No.1 stall never looking likely to be passed recording career high numbers following a 80 day break.It wouldn’t be fair for me not to point out a potential fly in the ointment regarding the current stable form which cannot be described as anything to write home about.However I still regard this colt as being on the up and expect a decent run against some inform opponents who to my mind haven’t yet reached the same level as the selection.
Looking ahead at the racecards for the next couple of days I’m hopeful of finding an investment or two.
good luck to allGoing to take a big leap of faith today in making a small investment on SANDS OF MALI who was a good juvenile and probably better 3yo racing in the best company once taking the step up.However for whatever reason the wheels have come off since but I believe there’s hope as the last time outside Gp 1 company he ran third in a similar contest under conditions very much like today behind two Gp 1 winners.While the favourite has made what many consider a good return to action he nor any of today’s rivals have faced a runner with the selections form to date,although recent runs haven’t been the best.With most of them devoid of pattern form and Snazzy Jazzy struggling when faced with better horses I’m hoping Sands of Mali will be able to cruise along with an uncontested lead,have his rivals out of their comfort zone before he turns on the afterburners,well that’s the theory!
good luck to allNo leap of faith today just a solid handicapper who’s never been better!
Although he didn’t cut much ice during the Carnival over in Meydan SUMMERGHAND has returned to these shores probably better than ever after posting very good then career high numbers last month.One would have to look hard & long to find a more consistent horse who is versatile but usually held up for a late run that goes on any ground.
good luck to allDidn’t think Summerghand was really in any doubt with a reasonable SP considering.
While today’s colt to be put forward for your consideration came into the summer a maiden LEXINGTON DASH e/w soon set matters right with a smooth win after a wind operation in a novice event which was quickly followed up by his debut handicap win both here at Newmarket each time settling the issue with an injection of pace that put daylight between him and his pursuers.However he try’s cut in the ground for the first time but his numbers although slightly below what I normally look for are progressive and having won comfortably last time believe they can be improved on making the risk a chance worth taking.
Hopefully next time I will be passing on exciting news,well for me it is,about my next phase of research which if it follows the small sample I’ve noted from my results could be a most profitable enterprise.That however’s for the future which will probably take some 18 months to complete with compiling the data and trials.
good luck to allHaving just lost all of my write up will just quickly post that I’m investing on MOUNTAIN PEAK e/w.
Around my part of the world Aston Villa have thought of themselves as better than everyone else LOL.
On Thursday before their game against Man Utd the manager made this boastful comment ….
WE HAVEN’T GOT WHAT WE DESERVE!…he ranted
Well lets look at the facts ..second joint lowest number of wins,one of the lowest number of goals scored,the highest number of goals conceded and finally failed to win any of their last ten league games.
NO ….Mr Dean Smith,manager,Villa are exactly where they deserve to be.A little now of my new research.
From previous projects my experience leads me to set clear parameters and use earlier research to point the way.
Using the very small sample I’ve noted from my ongoing betting have decided to raise the bar to qualify for this new look and as it will mean fewer qualifiers to extend the distances up to 8f.My original work took in all distances but found due to the amount of work involved it was very time consuming so a balance needs to be struck.
Commenced my data collection on Friday 10th July,no qualifiers this day.
From yesterday’s cards there were five who qualified from their last run but only concerned two races.Three in one with two in the second.The results were electric…….
1st,2nd & pu …..as far as I know National Anthem’s injury wasn’t fatal.
1st & 2nd.
While I know one can’t expect this kind of result all the time it does hopefully show this idea has legs?
good luck to allHaving a little investment down at Windsor this afternoon putting forward ALJADY e/w for your consideration.
While four wins from twelve starts is a useful return when you strip out other trips the runs over today’s distance show a remarkable consistency reading 4 wins & 3 places from 7.Versatile as regard tactics,although usually races prominently,and ground looks a bet to nothing for me.Having switched stables early last moth his new handler immediately dropped the gelding to sprint trips,Fahey was running the horse over 7f,with the result that both runs last month registered 2nd & 3rd highest in career numbers.Will be disappointed if we don’t get at least a place.
good luck to allNot a lot of time this morning so shall just put forward BADRI e/w for your consideration.While this colt has been off the course since a winning handicap debut on the a/w there’s no reason to believe he’s not capable of emulating that form on turf with the stable & jockey doing ok recently.Achieved career high numbers when last seen at Lingfield off a mark of 80 and would be surprised if a revised handicap of 84 would prove a barrier to his progress.
good luck to allHaven’t done this in years,invested in sprint handicap ante post,but this evening have taken the 16/1 e/w available about NORDIC PASSAGE for the Scurry on Sat.A in dept write up tomorrow.
good luck to allBrowsing through the numbers of the runners for the Scurry I marked out a few which I thought had the potential to do well.After reviewing recent form narrowed it down to NORDIC PASSAGE e/w figuring around 8-10’s on Saturday would be acceptable.Was totally blown away when I saw the sponsor offering 16/1.Not only were they the best odds but much more generous than all others.I may be wrong of course but I believe the odds compilers have made a right ‘rick’ here.
Why do I think this gelding is capable of winning?
Unraced as a juvenile he debuted under the care of John Gosden for his 3yo campaign running twice after which Timeform rated him 88p …remains with potential their closing remark of Racehorses of 2018.Off the course from May 2018 until Sept last year during which time was switched to his present handler.From Sept 2019 until March this year was tried over various trips,between the minimum and a mile,winning once over 8f but interestingly all on the aw Dundalk track.Back on turf after the restart of racing in June put up a sparkling performance at Naas when with more in front than behind a finishing burst inside the final furlong left his rivals toiling putting clear daylight between himself and the chasing pack.Not quite sure what happened next time out whether the quick turnaround,4 days,or being caught out of his ground contributed to his defeat when a closing 5th never nearer.Returned to the Curragh almost a month later to redeem his reputation as an improving sort when registering career high numbers after settling the contest with one decisive run inside the final furlong.Providing the 7 day turnaround is ok can see him running a big race!
good luck to all
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