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Not sure no, can CM really give Wichita 8lbs? Not sure I can see that to be honest
CM is a solid group 1 miler, but he’s never had to give weight to a colt before
A lot of people say this sort of thing, including top professionals like Gosden / Moore regarding the Goodwood Cup.
But the WFA is just to even things isn’t in theory? So they are, in theory, meeting on completely level terms.
I’d have been staggered if Moore had chosen a (currently) 3yo also-ran over a SJP and QA winner.
BUY THE SUN
was always going to pick CM proven group 1 multiple winning miler, and in theory you are correct ttc, they are technically off levels.
Wichitas price based on Frankie picking him is bizarre regardless of the result
That’s making the fairly lazy suggestion that 3 year olds are always rated exactly 8lbs inferior to their elders though. You only have look at the record of 3 year olds in this race 9/15 / 12/20 winners to suggest the weight allowance makes a difference.
Could be right in what you say about CM. Don’t think it’s very positive for Wichita’s chances though
I’d say the fact a lot of top horses are retired at 3yo makes a difference.
The WFA scale is calculated my greater minds than mine and yours, I’m sure.
BUY THE SUN
I’d say it does say a lot for wichitas chances because circus maximus whilst being a very good horse has never been top class
Wouldnt be surprised if he won but would be very disappointed if one of siskin, mohaather or kameko weren’t far too good for him
The Sussex Stakes favours 3 year olds. King George only 5/20, coral eclipse only 7/20. Sussex Stakes 12/20. There’s a lot to point to 3 year olds catching up by the Sussex Stakes.
I was working on something earlier as well. Horses that either won the English 2000 Guineas or recorded a min RPR of at least 118 in it over last 20 years have gone on to to win 7/10 times the Sussex Stakes that season. 2 exceptions were beaten by 3 years olds and one exception was Haafhd who had nightmare luck that day.
This race favours 3 year olds, no doubt for me.
That’s interesting. Would be great to read if you posted it.
Aren’t the 3yos better off than normal because it’s still July? Sure I read something, but it was regarding Santiago in the staying race.
BUY THE SUN
Still working on the piece but racingguides.co.uk is the blog and @racingguides on twitter TTC. Will post it tomorrow, wanna have a final check on the ground in the morning.
Ah yes you’re right, they get 1 extra pound I think. How crazy is that rule by the way. That’s another little pointer to the 3 year olds this year though.
Ff, how can you say hes not top class (he definitely is, not a world beater but hes a proper group 1 horse) but then say you wouldnt be surprised if he won, this is the most competitive mile race theres been for a long while.
Whoever wins this is outright the best miler around.
Ryan choosing CM over wichita (given that ryan chose wrong in the guineas) is a definite negative for wichita in regards to who they think is their #1, wichita lightly raced.
Trends are rubbish never been a fan, this is exactly the type of field that blows trends apart
Cant wait for this
Whoever wins this isn’t necessarily the best miler around as Paris Pier has gone elsewhere.
He’s won weak group 1s
Don’t think he’s ever beaten a top class horse
This is by some considerable margin the best field he has faced
Hes a 116-118 imo, can’t have them lifting his OR for winning that queen anne
Just short of top class
Trends can never be rubbish Ham and no race ever blows trends out the water, especially in Group 1s. If something happens 20 out of 20 times and then doesn’t, it means that trend has happened 20/21 times instead of 20/20.
Nothing ever blows anything out the water. What people don’t accept with trends is that they don’t happen all the time, but very often you can find reasons for that.
I’m assuming you mean by blowing out the water, Vatican City. I’m backing Vatican City now, for the reason that the quality of this race line up when considering the quality of the last 20 years is lower than average. By using that trend analysis, it’s led me to a big improver potentially winning this.
I’m also going to back Kameko, because the record of 2000 Guineas winners is very strong. He is the best 3 year old in the race and no reason at all Siskin should be ahead of him in the market.
Ironically, I’ve used trends to get to the same decision making as yours!
Siskin
He’s too short. Fails on breeding trends, so is vulnerable if there is a stronger pace (there wasn’t in Ireland, which allowed him to save his finishing speed). He also ran past beaten horses in Ireland. Did it quick, but I don’t think he’s as good as Kameko. He’s also run only once this season. The last 12, 3 yr old winners had all run at least 3 times. It’s a negative for me. It’s too big an ask for him at these odds.Mohaather
I’m with you on this one Ham, his rating for me is too high. He beat Grp2/3 standard horses at Ascot and is better with ease in the ground. Races were all on the slow side at Ascot that day. I think it’ll end up the quickest surface he’s faced tomorrow potentially. I think he’s good, but giving 8Lbs, not sure he’s that good at all.Circus Maximus
Not even sure he will reverse form with CM, but as good as I think CM is, again not sure he’s good enough to give 8lbs.San Donato
Or him. Shaman who beat him in the French 2000 Guineas, is only a Grp2 winner from 7 starts since. That’s probably a good yardstick to SD level of improvement.Wichita
Personally, I am a little surprised Ryan chose CM. Maybe he was always going to, but I don’t think it says a lot for Wichita’s chances. He also got the run of the race at Ascot and looked a little short of top quality. It’s possible he really came into himself at Newmarket hence why he was so well backed. That could’ve been his day and he’s reached his potential already perhaps.Kameko
Record of horses than run very well in the Eng 2000 Guineas is a very good one for the Sussex Stakes. If that holds again, a 4 year old won’t beat Kameko. He is the best 3 year old in the race on what he’s done. The Eng 2000 Guineas is historically better in general than the IRE 2000 Guineas. Kameko should be fav. Andrew Balding must think he’s better than Siskin and he’s coming here to win not as a prep for York. The big negative is how the race will be run, I’m banking on a strong pace, but he’s overpriced for me and worth taking a chance. Probably will know in the first 2/3 furlongs.Vatican City
This horse for me, would have gone very close to beating Siskin in the Guineas with a clear run. He was blocked even worse than Siskin was. That was only his third start and he came into the race as a maiden. He could run a very big race tomorrow on only his 5th start. He was never going to stay the Derby on all known evidence. He’s a dark horse for sure, going very much under the radar as AOBs supposed third string.Kameko 9/2
Vatican City 14/1What a race to enjoy this is, can’t wait! Good luck everyone!
Can see siskin only getting shorter now
By race time tomorrow with perfect drying conditions it will be gd all over
Wouldnt be surprised if he was 13/8 come the off
So have taken some of the 3.35 off the exchange this morning
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