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Charlie not knocking your bet as im no expert, but IMO, shes not good enough…she wouldnt be sited vs Apples Jade, and AJ is probably just good enough to win a WH in my view.
She’s a good mare but not good enough for open company….
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Been nibbling away at THE WORLDS END over the Winter months for this. Not been setting the world alight but has been running well on bottomless ground. Went off reletively short for the Cleeve last Saturday which i was suprised at given the ground conditions. This horse is much better that he’s shown so far this term.
I too am a THE WORLDS END fan Jaymo and I agree that with better ground we will see a major improvement and you can still get 33/1 !! I am amazed!!
Another who likes the worlds end here…very open race mind but you’d think he was value at 33s.
I was on the Worlds End last year for the Albert Bartlett but I’m not sure he’s ready for open company. I think this will be won by one of the top 3 in the market. This race more so than any other lends itself to probability i.e. 1500 metre runners are more consistent winners than 100m runners (Bolt excluded) and Hurdles are less bothersome than fences. Hence the numerous multiple winners.
I’m still hoping L’Ami Serge for once finds something of the bridle.
Personally I don’t understand why Supasundae is so short. His form looks fairly established and needs to improve quite a bit to win a Stayers Hurdle. Obvious from the Christmas Hurdle 3rd and 4th that Apples Jade did not need to be anywhere near her best to win and Supasundae had the run of the race given an easy lead. Something he’s unlikely to get at Cheltenham.
Seems Supasundae is better than I thought.
Value Is EverythingI don’t see how beating a ‘not as good as his best’ Faugheen over two miles on soft ground on a flat track has enhanced his chance in a stayers hurdle?
I’d much prefer to assess his chance on last time out being beaten by AJ, who arguably isn’t as good over a longer trip with Bapaume not beaten far in behind…
It’s always good to see your horse win it’s final prep race before going to the festival but I’m still more than happy with Sam Spinner! Just think if Supasundae comes travelling up behind Sam coming up to the last he’llfind much more for the three mile trip than Apples Jade or Faugheen did!
Waiting for them to push Sam out a point or two but don’t seem to be happening yet…
Anyway…if I was Jessie…I’d be thinking of a champion hurdle supplement because on what we’ve seen today that race is on the verge of falling apart big time!
Giving AJ 7lbs and bapaume 5lbs on ground hes not as good on at the wrong time of year is not a bad run, that enhanced his stayers claims IMO today did so aswell.
I don’t see how beating a ‘not as good as his best’ Faugheen over two miles on soft ground on a flat track has enhanced his chance in a stayers hurdle?
I’d much prefer to assess his chance on last time out being beaten by AJ, who arguably isn’t as good over a longer trip with Bapaume not beaten far in behind…
It’s always good to see your horse win it’s final prep race before going to the festival but I’m still more than happy with Sam Spinner! Just think if Supasundae comes travelling up behind Sam coming up to the last he’llfind much more for the three mile trip than Apples Jade or Faugheen did!
Waiting for them to push Sam out a point or two but don’t seem to be happening yet…
Anyway…if I was Jessie…I’d be thinking of a champion hurdle supplement because on what we’ve seen today that race is on the verge of falling apart big time!
Form Supasundae showed today is the same whether Faugheen ran in the race or not, Zammer. In fact, imo if anyone wants to judge the form it can not be done by using Faugheen as a guide at all, because he was below his best. Instead look at the third Mick Jazz. It was a poor Ryanair that MJ won, but Supasundae still beat him 7 lengths here. That form is certainly an improvement on Supasundae’s Hattons Grace and Liverpool Hurdle form and suspect the half length second to Apples Jade was (contrary to my initial view) a slight improvement on Aintree and Fairyhouse too… Going in an upward curve, with today a career best.
Whenever running in a Grade 1 one of the things that matter to its chance is obviously how good (ability-wise) a horse is… And Supasundae has shown his level of ability is now better than it was this morning. Of course sometimes a horse is better at one distance than another, but looking at Supasundae’s form is that likely?… He showed more speed today than expected and showed last time out he stays at least a slowly run 3 miles on soft ground and from Aintree stays 3 miles on good ground… Therefore, although no guarantee of Supasundae showing the same level of ability at the trip at Cheltenham – previous form suggests the chances of doing so are very good… And of course, even though fully effective at 2m on soft, if it came up good ground there’d be no guarantee of him being fast enough.
But I agree, imo Sam Spinner has the best chance in the Stayers.
Value Is EverythingLil Rockerfeller for me at 25/1.
His performance in this race last year remains, in my opinion, the strongest piece of form on offer. Assuming he gets his good ground again, he should be able to again run to a level of just shy of 170 which would make him the horse to beat.
Like GT, I judged Supasundae harshly and did not expect him to win on Saturday. I hope some of his supporters on here had something on.
He’s generally 3/1 for the Stayers Hurdle now but wouldn’t be for me. This race is usually won by a strong, proven stayer (Solwhit and Nichols Canyon being recent exceptions) and I don’t see Supasundae being another Solwhit.
Month or so ago this looked a poor renewal overall. Supasundae, The New One and now Yanworth. Although it’s to the detriment of other races. Supasundae would’ve been second favourite in the Champion and Yanworth best British hope in the RSA. Even The New One is (on form if not race record) a similar horse to Champion third favourite My Tent Or Yours.
Stayers Hurdle now looks a Championship event.
Value Is Everything
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