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Those of you who say that Frankel is no good thing are merely playing that old time honoured mind game. You know the one I’m on about: the one whereupon a plethora of reasons is thrown into the mix why the "certainty" – in this case, Frankel – might not win.
Of course, anyone with a modicum of common sense knows full well that the harbinger of doom has a neatly built in get out clause – whereby, should said jolly oblige as expected, then our man (or woman ) will say, oh well, it won… so what ?! – it didn’t take a genius to tip that.
But on the other hand, there is part B of the clause: the hoped for scenario
; where our trusty hot-pot meets with defeat. The wise sage will then shout from the rooftops how he/she told us all that "this would happen … didn’t I tell you… how great am I.. etc For the love of God, I pray that Frankel wins and saves us all from any bombastic fallout.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Himself,
There are far better 1/3 shots. We have no idea if Newmarket bottomed him out. Why didn’t he take in the Irish Guineas? Why didn’t he run in the Derby? What happens if everything runs 15 lengths off the pace and something gets up in the final 100 yards? Hurricane Fly last month was 8/13 the night before. You’re telling me Frankel is value based on that? Far too many imponderables for me to be going in at that price. New horses to contend with, connections are now savvy to what tactics they’ll try, etc.
Personally I’d far rather back the Japanese horse, Grand Prix Boss, at 14/1 each-way. If he places it pays 5/4. Dubawi Gold each-way, a place pays 6/5. There’s value to be had, just not with the favourite.
Zarkava, that is why odds compilers make a book. You pay your money, you take your choice.
What if this and what if that… applies to, without exception, all horse races.
Gintertipster said that if you think a horse has a better than 75% chance of winning a race, then 1/3 is value. I agree. I happen to think that Frankel has a 99% chance of winning the St James Palace Stakes. I think he is head and shoulders above the other 3 year old milers – in much the same way Brigadier Gerard was in 1971.
Both seen as specialist milers in their second season – and hence why neither was asked to contest The Derby.
You wouldn’t expect Usain Bolt to run a championship 1500 metres race against top athletes, would you ?
Why didn’t he run in the 2,000 Guineas ? What, and deny young Joseph O’Brien his glory day on Roderic O’Connor – a horse Frankel has already beaten on two previous occasions. If Frankel did need time to recover from his exertions at Newmarket, why then risk him in Ireland. The SJP is a better race anyway – and funnily enough, no Roderic O’Connor lining up this time.
Yes, I expect Frankel to win – and with some authority. I also think Dubawi Gold may chase him ( forlornly ) home again, in second.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Great posts Himself but you left one bit out – if he DOES win easily we’ll get the "its the worst crop of 3 year olds for decades" line!
Zarkava – "imponderables" – are you serious? How many times does he have to destroy his field before you are satisfied? The FACTS are he has won on soft, he has won on good, he has won on firm. He has won over course and distance. He has beaten half the field already and has pounds in hand over the WHOLE field. He has had 45 days to get over the Guineas which was the first time he was ever given a hard race and his jockey and trainer would tell us that it WASNT quite so hard anyway as the horse was just allowed to gallop.
The only imponderable my friend is how far will he win by.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
With respect Charles he is hardly the "Frankel of Japan". Good horse though he might be, he has won 4 out of 7 and recorded a top RPR of 119.
I wouldn’t take those ratings as gospel. Japan’s pretty isolated from Europe and he’s yet to race in open company making the ratings even more suspect.
Japan are so strong that few bother to run in their international races. They’re very hard to beat over the mile and further. Close 2nds in the Arc, Hong Kong’s inability to threaten them over the Mile, Gentoo unable to go the early pace in their stayer’s championship, and Conduit’s non-threatening 4th in the Japan Cup… Nakayama Festa pushed Workforce, and the Japanese have one or two better back home.Grand Prix Boss looks Japan’s best miler. Lost his first two 3yo starts (G2s) when likely needing the run and adopting strange tactics. Then won the big 3yo G1 mile (his last race before Ascot) beating many of those earlier rivals in great style.
He’s beaten a 3yo colt named Real Impact every time they’ve met including in the G1 mile. Real Impact recently scraped in to beat the older milers in Japan’s Spring mile championship (they have two big mile races, one each in the Spring and Autumn). Real Impact was a bit lucky to get there but it’s a boost to GPB’s form.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmA5gBwhnzc
Grand Prix Boss #13, Real Impact #1 plugs away along the rails for 3rd. Maybe Real Impact wasn’t at his peak here, but he also won the mile championship by grinding to the line when much closer to the speed.
Great posts Himself but you left one bit out – if he DOES win easily we’ll get the "its the worst crop of 3 year olds for decades" line!
Zarkava – "imponderables" – are you serious? How many times does he have to destroy his field before you are satisfied? The FACTS are he has won on soft, he has won on good, he has won on firm. He has won over course and distance. He has beaten half the field already and has pounds in hand over the WHOLE field. He has had 45 days to get over the Guineas which was the first time he was ever given a hard race and his jockey and trainer would tell us that it WASNT quite so hard anyway as the horse was just allowed to gallop.
The only imponderable my friend is how far will he win by.
Great, I hope he wins. I think he will. He’s just not a horse I want to back at 1/3, but I’ll enjoy it regardless of my bet on him to finish the season unbeaten. He looked a champion at Newmarket, the single greatest performance on a racecourse I’ve ever seen and my mouth was wide-open for the last 6 furlongs at HQ like I’m sure it was for thousands of others. I’ve just seen better 1/3 shots.
Can’t get away from GP boss an an each/way alternative to Frankel, who’s amazing but too short to consider seriously apart from doubles and trebles.
Dream Ahead may not even stay the mile, let alone be fit enough on his seasonal debut for a place. This hasn’t been his main target for some time either?
Wootton Bassett is clearly better than he showed in France last time out but is that form really standing up this year??
Dubawi Gold seems to be a good horse but a hostage to fortune, getting the run of a crazy 2,000 Guineas but then outdone in Ireland when the winner got an easy lead and he had to be switched out wide to challenge.
Grand Prix Boss at least has 2 Group 1 wins (having beaten a subsequent Group 1 winner in both of them) and the connections are clearly confident. Japanese horses among best in world & have decent records here, enough to be confident.
Wouldn’t ignore Zoffany for a place as long as he gets his ground. He had the look of a typical undercooked 1st-run-of-the-year O’Brien horse at Leopardstown and was actually surprised as to how near he got to winning. He has also grown from 2 – 3. Another possible plus is that if Frankel doesn’t front run and no one else does he is a horse who can come off the pace.
What is Zoffany doing in this race…he should be racing in the Golden Jubliee over 6f.
Good to see that some people are informative and know what they’re talking about (Presto). I was only posting what I heard the trainer say – I don’t know a flying **** if GPB is the ‘Frankel of Japan’. But I do believe I am right in saying that everybody here both expects and wants Frankel to dominate and hence win the race. But Richard Hughes has been adimant that he’ll be up closer to the pace on Dubawi Gold and I could see a good move coming round that bend. My only hope is that Frankel is closer. I have a strong urge that for once the Abdulla pace-maker will do a good job and Frankel will sit about 3/4 behind. I know Frankel’s a good horse but I hope Queally doesn’t ride him like he did Midday in the Coronation.
I think Charles is right. Frankel will be ridden handy just in behind the pacemaker but I expect Queally to let him go just before they turn in a la the Royal Lodge and let him use that enormous stride.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
JJM: If you fancy Dream Ahead for the FC you may want to consider backing him at 9/2 without Frankel?
With Frankel going off 1/3 or possibly shorter!! The FC will not pay anywhere near £5 as Dream Ahead is shortening up again this morning.
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http://www.racing-review.com/RAD1.pdf
Win: Frankel
Eachway: Wootton Basset
; where our trusty hot-pot meets with defeat. The wise sage will then shout from the rooftops how he/she told us all that "this would happen … didn’t I tell you… how great am I.. etc 
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