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See RPR have 135 for Harbinger for what that is worth
Is that Lee Mottershead’s rating?
Perhaps he is waiting for Alastair Down’s analysis of the sectional times before finalising a figure.
At least with the RPR there seems to be some possibility of it running above its mark in future.
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Very good post, Mr Wilson.
What? Mr W rates Macarthur higher than The Duke of Marmalade and yet The Duke beat him out of sight in the 08 King George! He"s having a laugh!
Didn’t go through every one of those ratings, Mr.King. But Mr.W putting some context on the Sea The Stars/Harbinger comparison is relevant don’t you think?
If Mr W"s ratings have any bearing at all then my names numpty! Harbinger would have sprinted past Sea the Stars yesterday but yesterdays history! Harbinger will be remembered for one race,Sea the Stars will be remembered for being a legend! Thats racing,this years Arc will be a cracker and if the ground has any cut at all Ryan Moore will still be on Workforce,he knows his horses too!
Sorry but I just have become increasingly frustrated with your belittling of people on TRF of late TAPK and I doubt this is an isolated view. What I was trying to point out yesterday evening was just to air on the side of caution and how the track can throw up impressive times which may not relate to the horses ability, I respect everyone’s views and you can only rate the performance on the information given to you which you can’t start fiddling with things to suit a perspective you want to see, although saying that Ascot certinaly brings out the best in a horse.
I very much agree with carvillshill when he says that we won’t see Harbinger running another 142 soon and it’s a high standard he’s set himself.
I too thought Mr Wilson’s post was interesting. Whether it’s accurate or not only he will know, and is really of no consequence to the rest of us
Attempts at compiling an objective private handicap using novel methods are to be applauded and are a welcome break from the plumes of collateral ‘held on a line through so and so’ hot air, and the interminable pounds-per-length (ounces-per-nose
) subjective assessment of individual performance using a ‘reliable yardstick’It remains a surprise to me that 30 years on from Clive Holt’s ‘Fineform Formula’ Course form is still underestimated as are course specialists IMO
Are we to read anything into the fact that Workforce has won at Goodwood and Epsom and has underperformed at York and Ascot. To my inexpert eye his conformation and gallop would suggest it should be t’other way round, but there ya go
Perhaps next year’s Coronation Cup should be his long term target
I know TAPK can be frustrating, his sarcasm and 100% belief in his thoughts can rub people (including me) up the wrong way. Don’t think he means to belittle anyone, though can see it might come over that way.
May be your thoughts can be expressed better in the TRF thread Mr Wilson.
Value Is EverythingIt was interesting during the post-race interview that Stoute mentioned his no-show in the Voltigeur but stopped short of offering an explanation for it. Harbinger also seemed to flash his tail when he got that backhander. Hopefully he might turn up at long odds-on soemwhere before the Arc.
drawing firm conclusions from insufficient evidence.
That’s ‘classic generation’ betting in a nutshell isn’t it?
By definition you’re dealing with lightly-raced unexposed horses whose ‘form’ is likely to be muddy rather than concrete. Which is why alternative handicapping, be that timefigures, Prufock’s variations on a ‘standardisation’ theme or Mr Wilson’s laudable go it alone experiment are wholly necessary adjuncts to on-the-face-of-it often deceptive conclusions arrived at from a slim form book full of winning margins and lengths beaten
Harbinger would have sprinted past Sea the Stars yesterday
I never thought I’d say this TAPK….but (with respect) you are talking absolute sh*te this time
Sea The Stars was in a different league to Harbinger, always was and always will be…..and that’s from someone who only backed him once in his career.
It was interesting during the post-race interview that Stoute mentioned his no-show in the Voltigeur but stopped short of offering an explanation for it. Harbinger also seemed to flash his tail when he got that backhander. Hopefully he might turn up at long odds-on soemwhere before the Arc.
Stoute did say after the John Porter what was wrong with Harbinger last year, unfortunately I have alzheimers. Don’t think it was anything major. Harbinger has often swished his tail in other races, nowt to worry about.
Value Is EverythingHarbinger would have sprinted past Sea the Stars yesterday
I never thought I’d say this TAPK….but (with respect) you are talking absolute sh*te this time
Sea The Stars was in a different league to Harbinger, always was and always will be…..and that’s from someone who only backed him once in his career.
As it stands id agree with that. Harbinger is still on the upgrade though….who knows what he can go on to achieve??……..Hope hes around at 5!!!.
BHA 135.
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/gorac … =Harbinger
That actually means that the BHA has Harbinger highest of all in real terms, as their ratings lag behind Timeform’s and Racing Post’s.
…although it depends on whether you are comparing the official ratings with those that were recorded prior to some unspecified time in the 1980s/1990s or since then. Apparently.
) subjective assessment of individual performance using a ‘reliable yardstick’
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