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Andyod…..so you’d say if there is a problem Michael Stout can’t afford to admit the fact, am I reading this right from you post, which, I must say, makes more sense than any other on the subject so far.
In his position, if there is a bug I’d pull Wokforce out but I understand your reasoningWere it not for my concerns I’d have made Harbinger almost a banker, but instead I’ve gone for the French filly who looks far too big a price
the fact that his stable jockey is not doing so well .the same goes for the trainer that should tell you something
the fact that his stable jockey is not doing so well .the same goes for the trainer that should tell you something
A jockey’s form is almost entirely down to the trainer he/she works for. Jockeyship is the most over-rated aspect of form study (imo).
Value Is EverythingIsn’t it true Andyod, there are many types of virus / bug?
Some are difficult to get rid of, and come back year after year. Like the ones you describe. It’s possible Marcus Tregoning might have this type. He was once a very promising trainer, with high strike rates. Now he struggles. Paul Cole another possible. Tom Dascombe, had excellant results from his southern base. Now, from a stable with (on the face of it) outstanding facilities, he’s struggling.On the other hand there are low grade viruses, which don’t linger, ones that effect a yard for a few weeks at a time. I’d have thought it might be this type (if any) effecting Stoute.
One other thing.
Remember many years ago, reading in Pacemaker Magazine. An article suggested American barns are worse for viruses than normal stabling. Something to do with how the air circulates. Anyone know if this is true?
Also, one top trainer told me he believed viruses are difficult to get rid of in old stable buildings (the nooks and crannies).I know Paul Nicholls shuts his stables down for a week or so in mid-summer to go top to toe with disinfectant, throughout the stables.
Aidan O’Brien keeps (or used to) tack individually on each stable, so as not to contaminate.
Value Is EverythingNo trainer can afford to admit he has a bug in his yard. A lowgrade virus is a horse problem not a location problem. Time will tell but normally a vet can identify a low grade virus more easily than a bug.Watch the horses running,no veterinary excuse for their poor performance. But study how they run.Do they suddenly start to go backwards quickly for no apparent reason? You can see them sliding towards the back of the field.Everyone is passing them because it is the time to start thinking about winning and they have nothing left to offer.If you have ever been sick yourself you may go for a walk but start running and you find out you can’t.Watch not just one from the yard but all of them.Good luck with your viewing.
the fact that his stable jockey is not doing so well .the same goes for the trainer that should tell you something
A jockey’s form is almost entirely down to the trainer he/she works for. Jockeyship is the most over-rated aspect of form study (imo).
How is it over-rated? Surely it’s factored into the form study itself.
If you’ve assessed a race, and you envisage two horses finishing within a neck of each other, is this because or despite of the jockey? What I’m trying to say is surely you’ve factored the jockey into your assessment.
If you’ve got two horses closely matched and haven’t factored in the jockey then you’re making a huge mistake, surely. You could have horse A finishing upside horse B on your form study without the jockey, but what if horse A is ridden by a ten times champion jockey and horse B is ridden by a 7lb lady claimer? Surely you factor this into your form assessment.
I also disagree that a jockey’s form is almost entirely down to the trainer he/she works for. Sir MS is out of form at present, so by your reckoning that means RM is out of form also. So why then did he ride four winners from seven rides for other trainers in the space of three days recently?
What you should have said is that the amount of winners a jockey rides for a certain trainer is down to the trainer he/she works for – winners not form I hasted to add.
I just don’t get where you’re coming from mate, especially with the jockey being the most over-rated aspect of form study.
And Fred Winters said to Eddie.You haven’t been riding very many winners for me lately lad. And Eddie replied but Fred you haven’t been training very many.
I’ve always found trying to factor jockeyship into form evaluation nigh on impossible. Impossibly subjective and far too many unconscious baises for me to be objective.
Does John Whiley (was that the name) still do that computer analysis of jockeys? Never looked into it ingreat depth but that, at least, put some objectivity into the matter.
Not discounting it, just personally found it too complex to even contemplate.
I’ve always found trying to factor jockeyship into form evaluation nigh on impossible. Impossibly subjective and far too many unconscious baises for me to be objective.
Does John Whiley (was that the name) still do that computer analysis of jockeys? Never looked into it ingreat depth but that, at least, put some objectivity into the matter.
Not discounting it, just personally found it too complex to even contemplate.
I know what you and Ginge are saying, but surely it’s impossible to assess a race without looking at the jockey.
Perhaps you both are going on races where ‘equal’ ability jockeys are riding the horses. But this is my point exactly. You only know that the horses are ridden by ‘equal’ ability jockeys by looking at who is acutally riding each horse, thus making the jockey booking crucial rather than over-rated.
Can Ginge – or anyone for that matter – put their hand on their heart and say that they’ve studied the form, come up with a selection, and then punted it without looking at who is riding the horse and who is riding the horses in opposition.
Like I say – and I’ll keep using this example – what if you study a race (without looking at the jockey bookings) and come down on two horses that you believe have a geat chance. Now taking a look at who is riding which horse, if one of those horses is ridden by a champion jockey, and the other by a weak claimer who is yet to ride a winner, then can you seriously tell me that your punting strategy won’t be affected?
I can name you a million horses (ok, not literally) that only go well for certain jockeys, and I know you and Ginge can also. So for anyone to say that the jockey is the most over-rated part of form study just doesn’t add up to me.
Is there a case to be made out for the BHA to insist upon random blood samples being obtained from yards where the performance pattern is markedly below par and for the subsequent results to be publicly accessible?
Is there a case to be made out for the BHA to insist upon random blood samples being obtained from yards where the performance pattern is markedly below par and for the subsequent results to be publicly accessible?
Would agree with that wholeheartedly.
the fact that his stable jockey is not doing so well .the same goes for the trainer that should tell you something
A jockey’s form is almost entirely down to the trainer he/she works for. Jockeyship is the most over-rated aspect of form study (imo).
How is it over-rated? Surely it’s factored into the form study itself.
If you’ve assessed a race, and you envisage two horses finishing within a neck of each other, is this because or despite of the jockey? What I’m trying to say is surely you’ve factored the jockey into your assessment.
If you’ve got two horses closely matched and haven’t factored in the jockey then you’re making a huge mistake, surely. You could have horse A finishing upside horse B on your form study without the jockey, but what if horse A is ridden by a ten times champion jockey and horse B is ridden by a 7lb lady claimer? Surely you factor this into your form assessment.
I also disagree that a jockey’s form is almost entirely down to the trainer he/she works for. Sir MS is out of form at present, so by your reckoning that means RM is out of form also. So why then did he ride four winners from seven rides for other trainers in the space of three days recently?
What you should have said is that the amount of winners a jockey rides for a certain trainer is down to the trainer he/she works for – winners not form I hasted to add.
I just don’t get where you’re coming from mate, especially with the jockey being the most over-rated aspect of form study.
One Eye,
You’ve misunderstood my point.
It’s not that I don’t allow for jockeyship in my own workings out. It’s that most punters (imo) take too much notice of who the jockey is. After all, it is the horse’s hooves that are on the ground, not the jockey’s feet.If you look at end of season records for jockeys. It is often either up and coming jockeys, unfashionable or even apprentices that show a level stake profit. Where as many top jockeys show a big deficit. This is because a lot of punters over estimate the amount Moore is better than the "average" jockey. Moore is probably the best jockey riding in Britain, but his rides often go off at a shorter price than their form entitles them to. Where as mounts of unfashionable or apprentice jockeys often go off at bigger prices than their form entitles them to. Paul Hanagan at the moment shows a small level stakes profit this season. No doubt he was under-rated, but with all the good publicity and praise he’s had recently, punters are likely to over-estimate his mounts in future.
That’s what I mean by jockeyship being an "over-rated aspect of form study".
Value Is EverythingOk Ginge, many apologies mate. Feel a bit of a twirp now – I’ll get my coat
One thing I will say though, you say it’s the horse’s hooves that touch the ground and not the jockey’s feet. But consider this; plant a horse on a gallop and what makes the horse move – a hoove or a foot? Have you ever sat on a horse and wondered why it didn’t move? Of course, you need to kick it in the belly with… your feet
Ryan Moore rides for plenty of trainers. His retainer might be out of form, But all the other trainers Ryan rode those winners for are in form. Mark Usher, Hannon, Haynes and Ed Dunlop, and if they are in good form, the rider will be too.
Value Is EverythingOk Ginge, many apologies mate. Feel a bit of a twirp now – I’ll get my coat
One thing I will say though, you say it’s the horse’s hooves that touch the ground and not the jockey’s feet. But consider this; plant a horse on a gallop and what makes the horse move – a hoove or a foot? Have you ever sat on a horse and wondered why it didn’t move? Of course, you need to kick it in the belly with… your feet
My fault OE, should have made my theory clearer.
Yes, that’s true, but every horse does have a jockey to kick it in the belly. No matter how good a donkey’s jockey is; he won’t beat the jockey riding a thoroughbred.
Value Is EverythingWhy not have the Jockey Club assign riders for each horse before the race based on the pool of riders available for each track. No speaking to trainers or owners.No posting of riding arrangements the night before.Make the selection just before the race.And off we go.
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Easy to see what Skybet think of the Stoute bug theory. 7/1 on offer about no Stoute horse finishing 1st or 2nd in the KG.
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