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Easy to see what Skybet think of the Stoute bug theory. 7/1 on offer about no Stoute horse finishing 1st or 2nd in the KG.
Chiswickian,
I am not saying all Stoute horses will run poorly. Even I expect one of the two to finish first or second. I still think it is probable one of them will
win
.
All I am saying is the chance of running poorly should be allowed for in the price you are willing to take.
Bookmakers are offering best prices 21/20 (48.8%) for Workforce and 11/4 (26.7%) Harbinger. Two combined amounting to 75.5% (around a 1/3 chance of winning).
If Stoute was in good form I’d say that was a fair price. But at the moment (imo) it is more like a 4/7 (64%) chance of a Stoute win.
So you could say I believe Stoute will win the King George (a much better than 50% chance). A 64% chance of winning, 36% chance he does not win. But it’s all about the price. I don’t believe either of his horses represents value at the moment. If you’d offer me 13/8 Workforce and/or 7/2 Harbinger, I’d probably back them right now!
It is interesting that both Workforce and Harbinger are in pink on oddschecker right now. Drifting!
Value Is Everything
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Oops almost forgot. Bugaku is badly handicapped and shifting ground is a concern. Well drawn and is about 11/1 on my 100% market and is unders for mine on current prices.
If all go to post and no scare stories, I’d expect Workforce to drift a bit further.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Well he was shuffled back to last, looked stuffed but kept on to run past a few to the line. A horse with a bug wouldn’t have been passing even tired horses up the Sandown hill IMO. Looked to travel uneasily on shifty ground near the rail. If this one had a bug he would have been tailed off given his position on the home turn.
Oops almost forgot. Bugaku is badly handicapped and shifting ground is a concern. Well drawn and is about 11/1 on my 100% market and is unders for mine on current prices.
Anyone can make excuses like that for any individual horse.
Why is it "badly handicapped" and why is the "shifting ground a concern"?
No point in answering now.Value Is EverythingAll these individual excuses don’t matter. Bug aku (well naned) was 11/2 second favourite, half a point behind the fav, and ran a stinker.
May be if seen as an individual it means nothing. But as a group the probability (imo) is there of something not quite right.Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Ok so now it doesn’t matter if I produce the clear excuses before or after the race.
The formbook was very clear and anyone backing that animal has nobody to blame but themselves. Three prior runs on good to soft or worse for three poor efforts tells a story to me. Jockeys have been reporting since the first race that the ground was shifting on top and not helping horses who like firm footing.
I’ll go with Charlie Brown now …. Good Grief!!!
Chiswikian,
It is impossible to say just how far behind the winner he would end up with the bug.However being tailed off is not the normal outcome of having the bug.Normally the horse will fail to quicken when asked and will come home in the final quarter of the field or thereabouts depending on his position when asked to quicken.However at the critical stage when asked for an effort he will not respond.It will be noticable that those in contention will be passing him too easily to ignore it. These conclusions are drawn from National Hunt observations and from normal (8-12) fields.I’ll give you an excuse for Bugaku.
He’s a dog.
Described in Timeform Racehorses as "ungenuine", with a squiggle.
Won on his reappearance both seasons and probably best caught fresh.Value Is EverythingAll eyes on the 7.45 at Epsom, this would normally be a penalty kick for the Stoute horse, correct?
Under the current circumstances however it’s a great shame the field is down to seven or this would be an amazing EW opportunity.PS (edit) As a jumps fan I’ve had an ew on the bumper horse so I can watch the race
Well Done the NH Mare, lets be having the (latest) excuses for the Stoute horse…………………
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You would have to be kidding. I don’t play that game. Canned for doing it already before or after the race. Why not try some legitimate form study and comment pre race yourself rather than the standard "penalty kick" type dismissal.
Let’s see your pre race analysis for today’s runners then I’ll come along and pick holes in it.
Firstly I’m not picking on Stoute for any personal reason, I backed Harbinger at Ascot…posted on here somewhere…I picked him as my bet365 competition Ante Post for this race along with Profound Beauty.
I’d intended a decent bet on Harbinger come the day but I’ve seen this sort of thing before that’s why I’ve gone for the French filly tomorrow, I’m on 1-2-3 @ 14-1 and not for any significant money, I’d have walloped Profound Beauty has she run and I’d have had a lot more on Harbinger than I’ve got on Daryakana were circumstances different with Stoute’s form.
I wouldn’t have backed a 3-Y-Old anyway as I believe they are inferior to last years
I looked at yesterday’s race and came to the conclusion his horse would not win because of the stable’s recent results although it had by far the best form. With only seven runners I had a very small ew on Eastern Paramour as I like NH horses running on the flat, especially mares. I get no satisfaction at all out of seeing a stable go through a bad patch, especially one I’d usually be very positive about, remember Willie Mullins run in the middle of last years jumps season? I stopped backing his runners for weeks as they were under preforming.
I’ve posted on the subject as a voice of warning, no more, no less, mainly aimed at those with a set of very thick blinkers on.
As regards his runners today, the 6.10 has several, probably five La Concorde included, with fairly similar level of form so I wouldn’t touch the race anyway and I wouldn’t really expect Nouriya to beat those with group form at York even if the stable was firing as usual.With 1 winner, 1 second and 1 third yesterday, although not exactly "in form"; hardly say SMS is "out of form" anymore.
Just in time?
Value Is EverythingWith 1 winner, 1 second and 1 third yesterday, although not exactly "in form"; hardly say SMS is "out of form" anymore.
Just in time?
"One swallow doesn’t make a summer"
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