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Chiswickian,
You say you "
never mentioned July
".
We are talking about Sir michael having a lean spell right now, in the middle of
July
.
You said earlier…
Doesn’t Stoute have
a flat patch almost every year
when the majority of runners are 3yo maidens and handicappers?
Therefore you are saying we should dismiss this July "flat patch" as it happens every year at some point (Spring, Summer, Autumn, whenever)..
I merely pointed out that SMS’s July record in the past has not shown such a "flat patch".
I am certainly NOT one for "trends", but certain "statistics" can be used to help find winners / value. If you do not take "stable form" in to account Chiswickian, then that’s entirely up to you. I’m just putting some information out there, up to everyone to come to their own opinion of whether it is relevent.
You talk about intelligent discussion, yet totally misquote me. You say I… "quote a performance history as (my) "
proof
" ".
I never mentioned "proof", I deal in possibilities and probabilities. There is no "proof".Won’t question your opinions any more, as you seem to be very defensive about them. Shame, as it stifles intelligent discussion.
Value Is EverythingSadly it’s 100,000,000/1 these days mate. Being drunk when you’re diabetic is dangerous! But am I bovvered?
Just talkin’ like what that Ms. Tate (Lauren) does. My own accent is "ampshire".
I know, just kidding.
Re: the drunk bit. As a fellow diabetic, I know exactly where you’re coming from.
Too much and the body can go haywire. Not a pleasant experience, that’s for sure.A close friend of mine died seven few years ago – he had been out drinking, forgot to take his insulin that day, went home, fell asleep on the carpet and never awoke.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Yikes, that’s a cautionary tale Himself.
I am on tablets, not insulin. So for me it’s more difficult to control as can’t give myself a boost. Tablets in the morning bring the blood/sugar levels down. If I don’t eat (to bring it back up again) it keeps going down until death!
Value Is Everything
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Ok Ginger you started the thread, didn’t like anyone disagreeing with you in any way and then pleaded comedian after the fact. On those terms you certainly can keep your discussions to yourself.
Plenty cash on IN YOUR TIME at Kempton, came home in his own time, the evidence is stacking up
Plenty cash on IN YOUR TIME at Kempton, came home in his own time, the evidence is stacking up
CS,
Don’t know about stacking up.
Stoutey did have a winner from his only runner yesterday. Blissful Moment at Windsor. Though one winner does not an in form trainer make.Number of runners looks as if they’ve dried up too. One runner on each of the last three. But it’s early days to be drawing any conclusions on that score.
No doubt the poor run will end at some point, a question of when. May be yesterday was the first of many. Hope so as want to see both Workforce and Harbinger at their best.
Figers crossed.
Value Is EverythingOk Ginger you started the thread, didn’t like anyone disagreeing with you in any way and then pleaded comedian after the fact. On those terms you certainly can keep your discussions to yourself.
I am sorry you feel that way Chiswickian.
Hardly say it was "after the fact" mate.
Sorry I did not tell everyone to laugh at the right point. Thought everyone knew what I was getting at by changing the spelling of bothered to b-o-v-v-e-r-e-d. You obviously don’t watch Catherine Tate and did not get the joke. Nothing wrong with that, just unfortunate, no problem. Most people know by now I am always up for a discussion. Don’t mind anyone disagreeing with me Chiswickian, just keep it within the racing debate and not get personal, then everyone’s happy. If you don’t want to continue the debate, then that’s o.k. too. Feel free to disagree with me in future. No offence taken, just a misunderstanding, forgotten about.Mark
Value Is EverythingThis is beginning to look serious…….another Stoute favourite sunk without a trace….Sir Walter Raleigh
Never mind The KG, it would appear all you betfair layers would be gettin ready to cash in on the next Stoute "good thing", Longliner in the 4.30.
I’m going for a small EW on Richard Hughes for Andy Turnell
Longliner, yet another beaten Stoute Fav, this one has group entries and gets beat in a polytrack maiden…dear oh dear
I’m glad I’m not on Harbinger or Workforce for SaturdayNone of this alters the quality of workforce, who is easily the best horse in his race, moreso given the 12lbs allowance, should be straightforward for him on saturday.
None of this alters the quality of workforce, who is easily the best horse in his race, moreso given the 12lbs allowance, should be straightforward for him on saturday.
This is not about how good, or how over-rated, Workforce is, or whether Harbinger is the best of the two or not.
If there’s a bug in the yard or something similar, no horse is immune. The latest colt to lose was considered good enough by connections to be entered in several group race, today he looked more like a selling plater, he wasn’t that far ahead of a fairly modest maiden Bumper horse who finished in 4th place.
Don’t tell me Sir Michael doesn’t know a potential group contender from a potential selling plater. Only a complete mug would dismiss this awful run out of hand.
In the absence of Profound Beauty I had intended to lump on Harbinger but there’s no way I’m backing a Stoute horse till this is terrible loss of form explained, the French filly ew looks the value bet- Total Posts 17716
The last horse to be beaten also had similar defeats at 2/1, 5/2 and 1/2 while actually finishing closest of all this time in a three way blanket finish. The horse had "priors". Not seen out for a few months so possible injury problems. Easy lay. He ran well and went close.
The one beaten last night at 9/2 was well beaten at its first start so little can be drawn from the performance.
Sir Walter looked one paced and was struggling as soon as they quickened. Didn’t get into a good rhythm from the start for mine. At least he stayed on to the line for 4th?
Not much concrete to be drawn from that lot.
At least the Prescott horses keep winning even when relatively easy late in betting.
Please prepare excuses in advance for tomorrow’s lays…oops sorry… Stoute runners
These are Macarene and Bugaku
I must be a mug then because I wouldn’t be worried one bit about it. Tbh, it’s a LOFS. How do you know which part of the stable Workforce is kept in even? As pointed out, his horses aren’t winning but are running ok races for their level. I couldn’t care less about it tbh.
If he turns up he’s had all the tests and he’s healthy and fit, and he should win. Haven’t backed him yet fwiw.
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If you want to go down that path we’ll start with the Maiden this evening at Sandown. Plenty of quality pedigrees on display with more speed than his. Nothing special reported from the gallops. Will do well to place first time out. Currently 10.5 in a weak market at Betfair. I don’t lay them at that price.
Sir Michael Stoute’s horses have performed 13.4 below Timeform master rating on average (9 on median) so far in July.
They performed 10.7 below on average (5 on median) in the same period in 2009.
35 qualifying runners in 2009, 39 in 2010.
(stop-loss of 50 below form, adjustments made for small p and large P on master rating. 3-y-os and older only)
It takes a clearly in-form stable to break -10.
I discussed the subject of having a bug in your yard on many different threads. For the benefit of those who are not familiar with the bug the following may help.
First;
The bug belongs to the yard not the horses.Horses in the yard are affected by it.All of them with a very small exception will run below their form both on the gallops and on the track.In effect they will gallop at home like sprinters ie lose it when asked for the final effort.If you watch the horses from the yard they all travel nicely until the pressure is put on. Then they stop like they hit a wall.They are back peddling when the rest are surging.
Secondly;
Sometimes there will be one horse who is not affected. I cannot explain this but I believe he possible fought off the bug when a tyo and became immune to it.So maybe he was not asked to race while he had it.This is only speculation.As long as a yard has the bug horses will continue to dissappoint. It can go on for years.See a recent interview with Dessie Hughes or ask him about it.A yard with the bug will have short periods when the horses win but not many.Perhaps the effort to eradicate it gives a moment of hope until it reappears again.
Thirdly;
Trainers never admit to it.Owners move on.I for one believe that Henry Cecil suffered from it.Dessie Hughes admitted he had it for years but only after getting rid of it.Not while it was there.
Addendum: people who move their horses probably spread it to other yards.
Too much and the body can go haywire. Not a pleasant experience, that’s for sure.
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