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Has Dr Campbell discussed standardizing the number of covid cases/deaths between regions of the UK as a percentage of total population and/or adjusted by population density?
For example, Somerset has a population of approximately 965,000 and a density of 600/sq mi; Greater Manchester a population of 2,800,000 and density of 5,700/sq mi
So it strikes me as being obvious that Somerset will have fewer cases/deaths than Greater Manchester; and to suggest that “something has gone badly wrong” in the NW without taking into account the difference in populations and overall densities of those populations is in all likelihood a flawed assertion
Cheltenham, the track that shutdown for a virus in animals but stayed open for a killer pandemic.
Yes – Straw you are right. Isolation and vaccination the answer for animals – less of them than
us – how many years are we looking at I wonder.Drone; it wasn’t Dr Campbell that mentioned the NW; that was just my own observation after Mike had mentioned the Liverpool game. It isn’t just Manchester though; I’m sure I read [but need to look it up]that the Lake District had a lot of cases [possibly due to people rushing up there on the weekend of 21/22 March to have a last hurrah before the impending lockdown]. When you work out incubation time and the fact that people die in the 2nd/3rd/4th weeks you’d have to think a lot of people were infected that weekend.
The govt were sleeping, good to see them taking a bit of flack over the Football/Cheltenham as a lot of what I read was criticising the punters/Cheltenham bosses.
Football would have gone ahead again on the Saturday like the midlands national did but the Premier League took it upon themselves to call it off after the Arsenal manager tested positive.
It took them a further 10 days or so after Cheltenham to announce those that are vulnerable/high risk about 1.5 million must be shielded.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Well the BHA could have progressed with the meeting but on a different basis with limited numbers – safe numbers for achievable social distancing – a coffin distance of 1.2. Like some supermarkets they could have done a health and safety assessment as to numbers allowed in enclosures. Lots drawn of advance ticket holders and passports checked. Every tenth entrant would have been given an armband to monitor correct social distancing. Temperature checks as in Singapore. Loudspeakers warning that people would be ejected for refusing to comply and the Cheltenham roar replaced by hats thrown or a fist gesture. No money in it but safe as houses.
Actually Drone the telegraph does a postcode checker with cases per million for your particular region.
flatcapgamble…Dominic Cummings chose Raab because he could not recite the Iliad, was no threat to the Bojo bombast, was a Dominic, and the only one to see eye to eye with the Prime Minister ( they are both 5 feet 9 )
Interesting report Drone, and I like your thinking outside the box gamble.
It’s difficult to come to a hard and fast decision from the statistics on offer though.
If the same stats were in Liverpool after a liverpool game, or Man U in manchester, then
it would be fair to assume that the percentage of the crowd, being Liverpool or Man u
supporters, would in general come from those areas, so an increase in those areas could be
pertinent. It’s a bit different with Cheltenham as national hunt fans come from all over. I
attended on Gold Cup day, but I had travelled some 364 miles from Dunoon. Thankfully I am
well, or as well as I normally am, and have been indoors since we came home. Perhaps there
is a larger contingent from the Cheltenham area, I’m not sure, but it’s not like a home match
as all Festival fans, myself included, make our annual pilgrimage.I’ve enjoyed reading through this thread, some interesting observations, and I love your
slant on live gamble. Also hats off to flatcap gamble too
Good to see you in here BigG and thank you, and yes the travelling mob eh ?
A lot of Cheltenham people would have gone, there are no travelling costs – but yes they would I assume be a much greater proportion from far and wide and a lot of Irish was it 20,000 ? Anyway Drone has rather nailed this thread as far as coming to conclusions. The Govt did not disapprove it so they, as Nathan suggests take the main responsibility. Hope you had a good time.
Moe’s Dr Campbell gave some interesting asymptomatic covid data which tends to imply that younger people may be the main group of carriers. He compared the Diamond Princess Cruise ship with the American aircraft carrier The Theodore Roosevelt. When the ship docked in Vietnam some sailors stayed in a hotel and caught covid from some UK holidaymakers. Of the 4800 crew some 600 tested positive with 40% of that number with symptoms and 60% asymptomatic with no symptoms but both groups able to spread it. Only one sailor died aged 40, but most were young fit men.
The Diamond Princess had much older people aboard and only 18% of those tested positive were asymptomatic. When they confined them to their cabins the R factor (number you infect) went from 7 to under 1 and the good Doctor concluded that air conditioning did not carry the virus from cabin to cabin. Young people are fit and produce antibodies whereas older people do not do that so easily. All interesting stuff and the good Doctor slightly resembled Rick Stein who had an issue with paying staff at his Padstow fish shop. Like Keith Floyd he seems to enjoy a glass but in lesser measure.
Moe I guessed you are 53 so if you see any yoofs on your rare outsides – better kick ’em into touch.
flatcapgamble…Shelock Hokmes was irritated.
“Dr Watson why do you keep following behind me ?”
” I am disappointed in you Holmes – I have dropped you more than enough clues.”I did see figures quoted of more than 20,000 Irish attendees at Cheltenham, but the Covid19 figures for Ireland seem relatively low (approx same number of confirmed cases as Sweden but approx third of the number of deaths as Sweden).
But so many different factors involved with each country difficult to make any sensible comparisons.Sensible comparisons between countries and even between regions of the same country are indeed difficult. More could possibly be gleaned by comparing urban centres with roughly the same population density: Dublin with Stockholm with London with…whatever other capital or large city you care to choose
The only interim conclusions that can be drawn about this pandemic is that we (the world) seem to be trying – and at present largely failing – to fathom the behaviour of an atypical pathogen: one whose symptoms seem to vary wildly amongst those who are infected with it
Even the R0 (basic reproduction number) has yet to be pinned down and is currently estimated at between 1.4 and 5.7 which, given this is an exponential index, is an enormous range, with the lower figure being less than that for the common cold and the upper figure akin to that for polio, smallpox and rubella
For comparison the common cold has an R0 of 2-3, regulation flu 0.9-2.1, to above 10 for those once rife ultra-infectious childhood diseases, chickenpox, measles and mumps
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
Much to learn, in the meantime continue with the lockdown
Is Betlarge, the instigator of this thread, okay? Think he has some underlying health conditions
Interesting info Drone. Some difficult decisions to be made to balance between keeping everyone safe during the current crisis and not storing up more problems long term. Glad am not involved in those decisions!
Well, hopefully Mike is still living it large
and has adopted the disappearing discipline
of a Wit or Davies. ( Yes Wit’s about )I was thinking about two countries of similar population : Georgia 4 ( mill ) and New Zealand around 5 (mill) which both locked down with quite a lot of cases but no deaths. Current deaths are 5 and 16.. which is a drop when you consider the rest.
Jeremy Hunt sold his education business for 30 million about 2 years back, and possibly his new found financial independence and getting the timing right has given him a bit of of a buzz of late and a feeling of independence – enough to throw large spanners at what he saw as dangerous delay and a depleted tool kit on behalf of his government.
I wish I was making those difficult decisions. A lot of the old are shoved off by the busy Yoof to wear out their days playing scrabble or trying to unlock windows. This will come back – it was known how vulnerable the old were and they had little uncomplaining voices and much quieter now as they are wheeled out in boxes. Silence of Lambs !!!
Hats off to the Victoria Care home on the Isle of Wight whose carers are living in tents in the home’s grounds to protect and shield the lovely fascinating old people inside. Its not only the Govt who need to take responsibility for death -the Care home managers ( many are marvellous ) should have stepped up and shown muscle and heckled and the Nursing Home carers, and the disparate carers in the community. Hope I’m never in such a place – I have made good provision for the dog to look after me when I cannot frame a market anymore. Norman Wisdom I will not be.
flatcapgamble….
Virus on the storm
Virus on the storm
Killer on the road
Killer on the bendThe dogs will rule the world
Wear DM’s, wear out yer girls
Gonna have to love your dog
Gonna have to love yer dogVirus on the storm
Virus on the storm
The dogs ‘ll crack the whip
You’ll work for us
and we might tip
Who knows how it ends
There’s death on the bendVirus on the storm
Its no longer norm
We’ll rule you’ll reap the corn
Give your life all up to us
re-born to bark a cuss
Yer gonna have to bow,
Say bye-bye ol’ bow wow wow
give lip and we’ll let rip
‘n rip ‘n rip ‘n rip and hit
Gonna have to love yer dog
Gonna have to love yer dog.lyrics by The Paws.
Betlarge is in the same boat as me in that he received a kidney transplant
Will be placed in the high risk category with a comprised immune system
Give us a shout Mike if you are looking in, let us know you are okayTaunton hospital had it’s 1st survivor from this virus, think he went home yesterday or this morning. Someone I know of from sight but not really to talk to. Still it bought a tear to my eye…
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
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flatcapgamble is in great form
The confinement is making him delusional Tank. I did not know that Mike was in your situation Nathan – fingers crossed for him but people do disappear on here from time to time.
What do we know ? Scotland followed us like sheep jumping off a cliff on March 12 going from containment to delay – Ireland steered a safer course. It is all very well for a half smiling Sturgeon to say that mistakes may have been made when everything is examined later and that similar may have been made the world over but – Hey, this is a war and big mistakes can cost many lives. The generals at the battle of the Somme (1916) miscalculated the damage of two weeks of bombardment of the German position as Jerry had dug in so steadfastly it was like a bad thunderstorm to them, as they lit their fags and applied ear plugs. 20,000 lambs were lost in what amounted to a suicide missions on the first day. The battle cost a million lives all round and only Stalingrad (2-3 million) was bloodier.
The Greek population protracted the virus at the same time as us but went into lockdown two weeks earlier. 10 million people and just 127 have died.
They have been trying for a vaccine for Corona for twenty years – Ebola took five and HIV has never found one. So don’t hold your breath on this ( world in action ) but terrific effort being made.
Wuhan’s success was down to testing contract testing and confining those with it away from others for 14 days.
People in old folks homes were forgotten by Europe. These are people that have little say and rely heavily on others for their protection. I say to all residential carers give up your families and friends and move in with them. I say to Governments – reward them financially for their sacrifice.
flatcapgamble… If Hancock were to lose his job no need for him to join the dole queue. He’s a dead ringer for Tintin and Captain Haddock would be the man to test him and his sea legs.
It is all very well for a half smiling Sturgeon to say that mistakes may have been made
At least we have seen and heard from her unlike the UK leader who is in hiding until better news awaits. Boris will miraculously appear when the death rate declines to announce we are coming out of lockdown.
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