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Jack – I also made a note of this rule change and believe it to be exactly as Steeplechasing has stated.
CNC, it’s interesting, i’d love them to pull him and go to the Ryanair then, but i can’t see it sadly.
At least, if its heavy the CH could turn into more of a test and could suit him better..
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Douvan in Champion Chase. The racing post are looking fairly silly with their false article now
Douvan in Champion Chase. The racing post are looking fairly silly with their false article now.
Did you watch ATR last night?
Ricci looking “silly/false” now.
Value Is EverythingJust seven declared for this stupid and unnecessary race. I hope Frodon wins, just for the lolz.
I agree, GM. Un De Sceaux is a stupid price win or lose.
Stays 2m5f and goes well on very soft; but does he stay 2m5f on very soft? Jury’s out and therefore got to take that in to consideration in pricing this up. Then there’s the fact 6 of the 7 runners like to race prominently, so UDS probably won’t get the soft lead he eventually got last year (on good)… And that means may not settle. Stablemate Douvan is the best horse in the race but if turning up after today is even more unlikely to stay! Takes a hold even at 2m. Under tomorrow’s conditions this will seem more like 2m7f than 2m5f; is either Mullins horse going to stay?Cue Card isn’t as good as he was; age catching up with him but if still capable of the form shown only a month ago – has a good chance. That said it was a hard race which is a worry. We know there’s no stamina or ground worries. Front running may be important these days, but hopefully will be given a prominent position. Should surely be shorter in the market than 15/2?
Frodon was behind Cue Card last time, but now returns to the venue and going of his stand out performance. That handicap can be rated higher after Tuesday’s Ultima (Shantou Flyer runner-up in both). 12/1 worth a punt. Less likely to need a prominent position than most.
Other main bet is Cloudy Dream 15/1. After connections tried to make him in to a 2 miler and then 3 miler (probably due to having Waiting Patiently at this trip). This could easily be his optimum and bring about further improvement. Possibly importantly, the only hold up horse in this field and could get a race run to suit him.
UDS’s crazily short price is making a lot value in this. Last year’s second – not that far behind UDS last and doing best work at the finish after getting a bit behind. Toss up whether Sub Lieutenent was going to be a main or saver, in the end plumped for the latter as hasn’t run for a long time and think I heard somewhere they were struggling to get him here. 23/1 saver.
Balco Des Flos is the other one I’ve left out. Good second to Road To Respect at 3m on firmer ground in the “Lexus”. Much different here and unlikely to get such a soft lead either.
My 100% book for very soft:
Un De Sceaux 13/8, Cue Card 11/2, Douvan 8/1, Frodon 8/1, Cloudy Dream 10/1, Sub Lieutenent 14/1, Balco Des Flos 14/1.Value Is EverythingDon’t forget Mullins is in 10/10 form ginger
What’s Nichols trainer form in your book at present…?
Also English heavy is good going over in Ireland so UDS will get the trip….
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Once again am happy with my ante post on Cloudy Dream at 25/1 and 20/1 three places and to be honest I think he will win this !!
This i horse is a genuine two and a half miler for me and all the messing about with his trips has just confirmed to me that this IS the case.
Second to the mighty Altior in the Arkle last year and high cruising speed means this race is ideal for this horse!!I seem to recall UDS rather liking the mud. I’ve always had him down as an interesting King George contender. But the time to back him has passed, IMHO.
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So don't run, just like the others always do
Don’t forget Mullins is in 10/10 form ginger
What’s Nichols trainer form in your book at present…?
Also English heavy is good going over in Ireland so UDS will get the trip….Trainer form all allowed for in my prices, Nathan and either they stay or don’t. Trainer form is important, but not the be all and end all.
Mullins now a 9/10, Nicholls 7/10, Tizzard 7/10, Bromhead 6/10, Jefferson 6/10 with a “?” (not many runners to judge her on). Anything from 7 to 10 is in good form, 6 is average.
Value Is EverythingUn De Sceaux will, I believe, win this as impressively as Altior won the Queen Mother Champion Chase
Happy to stick with Un De Sceaux at 3/1 here. I’ve felt that this could end up the race of the meeting for a couple of weeks but it’s a good’un nonetheless. If Cue Card wins I’ll more than happily take it on the chin.
Not quite as much rain and a prominent runner coming out so revised prices:
My 100% book for very soft:
Un De Sceaux 6/5, Cue Card 4/1, Frodon 13/2, Cloudy Dream 9/1, Balco Des Flos 16/1, Sub Lieutenent 16/1.Even so, UDS looks very poor value.
Value Is Everything
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