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Wouldn’t say Simply Ned put up a “career best”, Voleur; but given his record in that race could possibly have returned to his best. Like you, I believe Min wasn’t far behind his best last time. However, will need to improve quite a bit to win an average Grade 1 at Cheltenham… And Mullins already has a good favourite for this. At the moment – unless something happens to Un De Sceaux I’d have thought the Champion Chase a more likely target for Min. That said, if Faugheen doesn’t make the Champion Hurdle it would be no surprise to see Yorkhill there, UDS goes Champion Chase route and Min switches to Ryanair… Also: UDS isn’t certain to stay the Ryanair trip if (quite a big IF) it’s very soft; so the going could also force a rethink/change in targets.
Value Is Everythingmy objection to the Ryanair is how it dilutes the quality of the real championship races; e.g Vautour would have possibly won the Gold Cup, Uxixandre the 2 mile chase + Don Cossack the Gold Cup, last year UDS the 2 mile chase.
Some horses are best over 2 1/2 miles. Vautour was great over that distance, not over 3 miles plus.
There may have been more horses running in the Arkle fifteen years ago but few had a chance of winning. Loads of older 2 1/2 mile hurdlers forced to run over unsuitable distances at Cheltenham because there isn’t a race for them – even though one of the best races at the festival is a 2 1/2 novice hurdle, there are handicap hurdles and chases over that distance.
And Don Cossack won a Gold Cup.
Wouldn’t say Simply Ned put up a “career best”, Voleur; but given his record in that race could possibly have returned to his best. Like you, I believe Min wasn’t far behind his best last time. However, will need to improve quite a bit to win an average Grade 1 at Cheltenham… And Mullins already has a good favourite for this. At the moment – unless something happens to Un De Sceaux I’d have thought the Champion Chase a more likely target for Min. That said, if Faugheen doesn’t make the Champion Hurdle it would be no surprise to see Yorkhill there, UDS goes Champion Chase route and Min switches to Ryanair… Also: UDS isn’t certain to stay the Ryanair trip if (quite a big IF) it’s very soft; so the going could also force a rethink/change in targets.
My problem with that is, if we agree Min only ran slightly below form, say 5 or 6 pounds, and Simply Ned didn’t run to a significant career best, then what we’re saying is that Min is only a mid/high 160’s chaser at best.
I’m not sure I can have that. He had the potential to reach 170 at least, over hurdles, and everything pointed to him being a better chaser. Unless his injury has affected him more severely than we have been led to believe, natural progression would tell you he has the potential to reach 180 over fences. To cap that potential below 170 after only one poor run seems counter intuitive to me.
The distances between Min and Ordinary World/Woodland Opera tells me that he wasn’t massively below form, but the proximity of Simply Ned throws something of a spanner in the works.
So either Min wasn’t massively below form and the stars aligned for Simply Ned, allowing him to run to a career best, OR Simply Ned only ran to 159 and Min just isn’t as good a chaser as many people expected.
Time will tell I suppose.
Put it this way; if Min wasn’t in the race and Simply Ned still beat Ordinary World by 15l, would the handicapper, or Timeform rather, still have him at 159? I’m not sure they would. The fact that Min is in there, a potential 180 horse, has probably led them to devaluing his effort by reasoning that Min was simply way below form.
But if Min wasn’t in the race, I think the handicapper would have no problem saying Simply Ned ran to a career best and award him a mark in the mid 160’s. Ordinary World was rated 149, SN beat him 15l in a Grade 1. Simply Ned achieved his career bets mark of 161 for beating 131 rated Robins Command by 3 lengths, and 151 rated Croco Bay by anther half length. Surely his beating of Ordinary World is worth more than 159 in that case?
On a line through Altior, Great Field, and Min last season, Ordinary World didn’t seem to run well below form himself. In fact he seems to have run exactly to his mark.
Min didn’t run his best last time trainer was implying post interview. Something happened near the beginning of the race that lit him up which caused him to run with the choke out.
Time will tell I suppose.
Do we know Vautour wouldn’t have won a Gold Cup? Do we? And you’d be a hard man to argue that Un De Sceaux wouldn’t have won the Champion Chase last year.
I think the majority of the public would rather see the best horses taking each other on and so in that sense it’d be better for the sport in general if we could now start promoting Un De Sceaux vs Altior vs Politologue vs Top Notch rather than Altior vs Politologue and then a day later Un De Sceaux vs Top Notch. And if you’re that big a fan of 2m4f level weights chases then go to Aintree in April and watch the Melling Chase.
So despite having 2m4f chases all season long, we scrap them at the sport’s showcase event ?
Timeform have Simply Ned as running to around that mark on several occasions.
Ordinary World was probably flattered in his proximity to easy winner Great Field and imo probably ran to something like his true level against Min and Simply Ned. Was 15 behind the duo and had 31 to spare over the 4th, so probably not under as hard a drive as those duelling for the lead; OW worth rating a bit closer than 15 lengths. Yes, Min was probably “5 or 6 lbs” below form due to being a bit free early and could still improve to a 170+ horse (hasn’t had much racing). Very much doubt it’ll be as much as 180. Had Min not been there the form would’ve been the same, it’s very difficult to believe an old, exposed horse like Simply Ned put up an improved performance – back to his best, yes; improved no.
Value Is EverythingUDS wouldn’t win the Champion Chase on good ground. Unless the race cuts up to a big degree he doesn’t have the speed any more.
And just because the occasional winner might be distance versatile, it doesn’t mean the race is unwanted or unnecessary
Do people who dislike the Ryanair also dislike the novices handicap and the Plate ?
Maybe you’re right. It would be very rare for an old, exposed horse like Simply Ned to improve at 11 years of age, but that would mean capping Mins potential a lot lower than I believe it is. Unless of course his injury has caused him to regress. But I’m not ruling it out completely either, I’m sure there is a case of an old horse suddenly running to a career out there somewhere, if only I could find it. As I said, maybe the stars aligned for Simply Ned, and everything was in his favour more than it ever was before.
And then of course Timeform could be right, and Min was simply well below form.
I thought from your earlier post you and Timeform agree, Voleur.
Value Is EverythingApologies, I have confused Min’s Timeform ‘Figure’ with his Timeform ‘Rating’. They gave him a figure of 154, down from his previous figure of 167.But I see they awarded him an actual rating of 160+, down from his previous rating of 166+, which is more in line with my own analysis. So yes you’re correct, Timeform and I do seem to agree.
And just because the occasional winner might be distance versatile, it doesn’t mean the race is unwanted or unnecessary
Do people who dislike the Ryanair also dislike the novices handicap and the Plate ?
By that rationale we should also have a 2 + 1/2 mile championship hurdle
Maybe you’re right. It would be very rare for an old, exposed horse like Simply Ned to improve at 11 years of age, but that would mean capping Mins potential a lot lower than I believe it is. Unless of course his injury has caused him to regress. But I’m not ruling it out completely either, I’m sure there is a case of an old horse suddenly running to a career out there somewhere, if only I could find it. As I said, maybe the stars aligned for Simply Ned, and everything was in his favour more than it ever was before.
And then of course Timeform could be right, and Min was simply well below form.
Maybe not quite 11 years old, Roosterbooster in his champion hurdle was 9 years old on 27th start, and put up a performance that day far superior to anything he had previously- granted race fell perfectly for him with Intersky Falcon off like a scalded cat, but I don’t think any horse would have beat the booster that day – ahhh the memories
By that rationale we should also have a 2 + 1/2 mile championship hurdle
Exactly.
There are horses who can’t win a Champion or a Stayers and some of them are sent chasing because the 2 1/2 mile conditions hurdle race programme for senior hurdlers is weak.
The novices have the the Neptune and the Mersey
Seniors have the AintreeObviously some novices will go chasing, reducing the amount of potential contenders, but I still find it utterly bizarre that the Cheltenham Festival has every conceivable 2 1/2 mile race other than one for senior hurdlers. There are more hurdlers suited to that distance than 3 miles.
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