Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

[robnorth]

Only the one meeting now on Wednesday so nothing coming within range of this thread.

Results for 2023 saw 178 winners from 1283 top rated (13.9%) with a 77% return. Very disappointing, but if you take out all those over 10/1 then win percentage is 19% and return 92%, so selectivity puts us nearer to break even. Win percentage from top 3 is 41% (527 winners) which has been pretty steady over the life of this forum, with result of chance being 33% then this gives an Impact value of 1.24. Taking shortest priced og top 3 gives 22% winenrs returning 93.5%, again illustrating that the market can be used as a ‘coarse filter’.

For the Overall raw rating, that is the rating before applying the recent form calculation then return is 85% but at the expense of win percentage (12%). This part of the method is often skewed by horses right out of form dropping quickly down the handicap, so a greater degree of selectivity is required. Putting all ratings up would invovle a lot of work, typing on here mainly(!), but I’ll keep readers posted and if I can post slightly different angles to help success then I’ll do that.

[robnorth]

Nothing on Thursday, but there a handful of qualifying races on Friday with ratings to follow after declaration.

[robnorth]

Once again fields sizes aren’t great for jump races but, given that there are three instances of clashes class/distance between Wincanton and Sandown on Saturday then it isn’t a suprise. Georges Saint is entered over 2m 4f at both. Cheltenham held a Premier 2m 4f Chase on Monday and now Sandown holds 0-150 over the same distance aimed at more or less the same group of horses. Not bad racing at a lower level at Musselburgh, but still only one field in double figures though I have bene told that staffing for overnight travel does make a difference. If there are double figure fields they tend to be lower end anyway, 13 for a class 4 hurdle tomorrow.

On a complete note I got into a ‘discussion’ on Twitter (‘Not X’ – see Tote’s name of the aforementioned Class 4 hurdle) about ‘Irish raider’ Stuart Crawford picking off races at Ayr. I pointed out that at 88 miles (ferry included) it was one of his local tracks with only Down Royal and Downpatrick closer to his Larne base. Makes sense to pick off races single figure fields ‘locally’ instead of more populus contests at Irish tracks. My correspondent rambled but didn’t really have an answer past parochial bias.

I hope dear reader (presumably in no more than the singular after three half years!), that you don’t mind a bit of narrative/waffle (delete as applable) in between the figures. Enough of trying to put the world to rights and on to the ratings for the two days…

FRIDAY JANUARY 5

Musselburgh
1.20 Grozni 141; I Am Gonna Be 140; Garde Des Champs 138

Ludlow
2.10 Burrows Park 133; Emitom 131; Balkardy 131; Hurricane Harvey 128
2.43 Kestrel Valley 128; Hautfolin 128; Tide Times 122

Southwell
1.12 Chase The Dollar 96; Midnight Lion 95; Heathen 93; Rhythmic Intent 92

SATURDAY JANUARY 6

Newcastle
12.30 Findthetime 131; Champ De Gane 128; Gardener 113
1.05 Space Voyage 129; Guernesey 129; Teescompnentstrig 124

Sandown – ABANDONED

Wincanton
1.30 Magic Saint 134; Mr Grey Sky 132; Fakir 128;
2.40 Iconic Muddle 142; Go Steady 139; Huelgoat 135; Jacamar 132
3.15 Rare Clouds 125; Individualiste 123; Astronomic View 122; Bumpy Johnson 115

Kempton
6.45 Aratus 109; Talis Evolvere 103; Court Of Session 98; Plantadream 98
7.15 Aljari 98; Blind Beggar 98; Bosh 97; Expert Agent 96

[robnorth]

SUNDAY JANUARY 7

Plumpton
1.15 Rock My Way 143; Scarface 140; Red Windsor 138
2.15 Eldorado Allen 160(chase form); Ramo 145; Transmission 145; Call Me Lord 144
2.50 Rose Of Arcadia 146; Dom Of Mary 142; Eceparti 141; Special Acceptance 137

Wolverhampton
7.30 Zarzyni 89; Strong Johnson 89; Night On Earth 89; Lihou 88; Diomed Spirit 88

[robnorth]

MONDAY JANUARY 8

Taunton
3.00 Inca De Lafayette 135; Vicki Vale 133; Mr Freedom 132; Just Loose Change 129

[robnorth]

TUESDAY JANUARY 9

Exeter
2.55 Raddon top 133; Pimlico Point 126; Top Of The Bill 117; Hermes De Gouet 116

Market Rasen
2.10 Lagonda 130; Anglers Cash 128; Moon Hunter 127; Peejaybee 124

Southwell
7.00 Follow Your Heart 107; Starshiba 107; Lord Of The Lodge 106; Greatgadian 106; Intervention 106; Zip 105

The Class 2 contest at Southwell is a fiendish one to crack. Handicapper seems to have most of these more or less in their slot as they keep coming up against each other and there’s less variation in conditions to split them on the artificail surface.

[robnorth]

WEDNESDAY JANUARY 10

Doncaster
2.00 One Fine Man 148; Demachine 140; Dreams Of Home 135; Raffle Ticket 134; Cruz Control 134

[robnorth]

THURSDAY JANUARY 11

Southwell
12.55 Royal Tapestry 92; Meresdie Madness 83; Stratocracy 81

Catterick
2.30 No Cruise 128; Ladronne 126; Shadows In The Sky 125; Bushypark 124

A little bit wary of the southwell race as it’s a 3yo handicap and htere are a couple of handicap debutants. For those who are curious, ‘Stratocracy’ means ‘government by the military’. Remember that one if ever it comes up in University Challenge!

[robnorth]

FRIDAY JANUARY 12

Wincanton
1.00 Western Zephyr 137; Pilksdon Pen 136; Heros 135

Just the one race tomorrow and a small field once again. There just doesn’t seem to be the population to fill jump races at the moment, though the proliferation of All-weather must have an effect as there isn’t the supply of horses at the bottom end that there used to be.

I’ve been recording the raw form ratings alongside the recent rationgs that I publish on here. Results are not that different, in fact level stakes returns seem a bit better, though you do get some right lulu top rated where horses have been weigh out of form. I’ll keep an eye on all figures in the coming months and take a position on which ones are the better to use.

I’ve been compiling figures for Irish racing for my own amusement. I think there’s a problem with the database for the Irish All Weather as I noticed many winner’s figures hasdn’t been updated. This is either that they keep them secret, but then how do the trainer’s know(?), or that they have entered the updated figures as turf ratings and looking at the updated figures I suspect this may be the case…

[robnorth]

Only 2 declared for the Edward Courage Cup at Warwick on Saturday so have given that a miss. It’s a Class 3 Novices Limited Handicap Chase and field sizes have been a struggle for this type of event, if 6 races average 4 runners then cut down to 2 races surely attract more than 4 in each? There’s clearly too many races programmed yet the Powers That Be are too busy p***ing about with ‘Premierisation’ to notice.

On the upside, big fields for the two Warwick staying chases and the Lanzarote. Aye Right runs at Warwick which takes us down to 7 possibles for the Hunters’ Chase at Kelso on Sunday, a class in which Scottish Racing is struggling to raise a quorum.

SATURDAY JANUARY 13

Warwick
1.45 Gentleman At Arms 155; Mel Monroe 144; J’Ai Froid 144; Shallow River 143
3.00 Major Dundee 163; Guetapan Collonges 157; Percussion 157; My Silver Lining 151
3.35 Cyclop 172; Two For Gold 168; Celebre D’Allen 162; Aye Right 159

Kempton
1.30 De Rasher Counter 148; Flegmatik 146; Chianti Classico 145; Latitude 145
2.42 Nemean Lion 151; Jay Jay Reilly 149; Good Luck Charm 147; Hermino 145; Kaleb 145
3.15 Le Ligerien 145; Western Zephyr 145; Pepe Le Moko 140
3.50 Arqoob 149; Caithness 144; Rare Edition 138; Douglas DC 138

Wetherby
2.15 Xcitations 143; The Last Day 142; Cornerstone Lad 140
2.50 Benassi 148; Santos Blue 137; Singapore Trip 135; Espoir De Romay 134

[robnorth]

SUNDAY JANUARY 14

Kelso
2.50 Ginger Mail 132; Bois Guillbert 125; Russian Virtue 125
3.20 Special Rate 144; Dubai Days 142; Destiny Is All 139; Jet Legs 139

[robnorth]

Sticking to the figures instead of thinking too much paid dividends today. Was a time I would have thought myself out of selecting Jay Jay Reilly in the Saturday Handicap Comp, chase form going into a handicap hurdle, but went with it as each-way selection and did the business at 33/1. Top rated Nemean Lion was 2nd and 3rd rated Good Luck Charm was fourth, sometimes it’s just your day!

Hopefully luck carries across to on-course at Kelso tomorrow. Nothing comes on the radar Monday, but temperatures forecast to be drop to freezing so might be short of jump action this week.

[greenasgrass]

Brilliant stuff rob, good luck tomorrow

[robnorth]

Managed to top rate the winners of both races at Kelso today at 100/30 and 15/2 so returns boosted after a few near misses of late. Ginger Mail appreciated the drop in class and special Rate added to an already impressive seasonal win tally. A bit of a doubt about Tuesday racing with a cold spell looming but figures given below.

TUESDAY JANUARY 15

Chepstow
1.30 Speech Bubble 138; Ballycamus 136; Kings Keeper 132
2.35 Bertie Wooster 133; Benign Dictator 132; Lord Of Cheshire 131; Out Of Focus 130

Plumpton
2.25 Burrows Park 133; Juniper 130; Iconic Muddle 122; Shanty Alley 119

[robnorth]

One race on the evening all-weather card at Southwell tomorrow, with the top 2 both coming off a long lay-off…., and the next two perhaps longing for warmer weather!

THURSDAY JANUARY 18

Southwell
6.30 Cavern Club 103; Qaasid 97; Queen Of Ipanema 96; Tenerife Sunshine 96; Howth 94

[robnorth]

I’ve doen the figures for Lingfield on Saturday, jumps figures are very doubtful but I’ll add the ratings if there’s swift thaw.

Lingfield
2.00 King’s Code 106; Forca Timao 103; Starshiba 103; Fantastic Fox 102; Al Rufaa 102; Woodstock City 102
2.35 Bergerac 115; Alligator Alley 112; Clearpoint 110; Lord Riddiford 109
3.10 Queen Regent 95; Twirling 93; Dayzee 93; Behind The Scenes 92

[robnorth]

Positive signals for a strong Lingfield card tomorrow with temperatures rising. I’ve rated the Class 2 conditions’ Chase as they’ve all run in handicaps in the recent past and I fancy Iwilldoit might run a good deal better than forecast 20/1 suggests. Not Sure ran well enough from out of the weights at Chepstow and looks the type for the Surrey National.

SUNDAY JANUARY 21

Lingfield
1.50 Real Stone 164; Frero Banbou 160; First Flow 158; Triple Trade 158
2.25 Midnight Reflection 149; Tanganyika 149; Bold Endeavour 146; Ramo 145
3.00 L’Homme Presse 176; Iwilldoit 175; Protektorat 170
3.35 Fern Hill 147; Not Sure 141; Regal Blue 138; Mumbo Jumbo 137; Animal 134; O’Connell 134
4.10 Heltenham 139; Bucksy Des Epieres 129; He’s A Latchico 127; Tellmesomethingood 126 (Careful…, half of the field have no handicap form)

Chelmsford
7.15 Gulliver 97; Letmelivemylife 96; Admiral D 95; Bosh 94; Blind Beggar 94

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