Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

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WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 13

Lingfield
2.00 Cuban Breeze 95; Buccabay 91; Bosh 90; Expoert Agent 90; Intervention 90

Exeter
1.50 Bennys King 134; Stormy Flight 132; Sir Psycho 130
2.50 Golden Sovereign 131; Silver In Disguise 126; Polish 126; Lyrical Genius 126; Broomfield Present 123

Leicester
3.05 The Edgar Wallace 132; Mylesfromwicklow 130; Ubetya 121

Top rated still performing poorly overall (14% winners returning 74.7%), but worst results can be filtered out by ignoring anything over 10/1. Chambard won for us on Saturday at 18/1, but those SP over 10/1 are 9 from 372 over the year(2.4%), whereas those 10/1 or less are 154 from 804 (19%) and returnnig 95%. The original method when issued advised rating the first 6 in the betting and this would certainly do no harm for returns. An extreme example was Chabadatika at Taunton on 29th November beaten at 250/1 with it’s recent form rating skewed by a win in France.

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THURSDAY DECEMBER 14

Taunton
2.40 Inferno Sacree 143; American Sniper 129; Swaffham Bulbeck 126; Samuel Spade 126; Amelia’s Dance 126
3.15 Skinflint 131; Guy 130; Heros 125

Newcastle
1.40 Horn Cape 129; Dare To Shout 127; War Soldier 118

Chelmsford
7.00 Storm Catcher 90; Penzance 86; Sayf Al Dawla 83
8.00 Desert Order 106; Batemans Boy 106; Rhythm N Rock 106; Fantastic Fox 105; Excel Power 104

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FRIDAY DECEMBER 14

Doncaster
2.15 Brandy McQueen 136; Scrum Diddly 136; Abuffalosoldier 132; Storminhome 132

Cheltenham
1.15 Ginger Mail 138; Doddiethegreat 134; Donnacha 134; Wonderful Eagle 133; Mr Mackay 131
1.50 Royale Margaux 133; Petticoat Lucy 126; Walk In Clover 125; Game On For Glory 124; Malaita 124; Brianna Rose 124
2.25 Go Steady 159; Lord du Mesnil 152; Storm Control 146; Le Legirien 143
3.00 Minella Indo 163; Enjoy D’Allen 160; Wick Green 160; Gesskille 158; Latenightpass 156
3.35 Fontata Ellissi 146; Shantou Express 142; Gyenyame 141; Tiger Jet 141; Paricolor 141

Bangor
1.30 Yes Indeed 129; Tiger Orchid 128; Hold That Taught 128; Salvatore 128
2.05 Chris Cool 125; Shallow River 123; Butler’s Brief 119; Astronome View 118

Southwell
6.30 Pleasant Man 91; Oceanline 91; Apparate 89; Aqwaam 89; Sharp Distinction 89; Cool Party 89

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Continuing a busy weekend there is plenty of decent handicap action this weekend. A very decent card at Hereford rather slips under the radar but the course cards some vary good races.

SATURDAY DECEMBER 16

Doncaster
1.25 Glinger Flame 136; Breaking Waves 137; Anyharminasking 132; Serious Operator 130
2.05 Henry’s Friend 136; Vintage fizz 34; Deeper Blue 131; Cruz Control 131; Findthetime 131; Cerendipity 131
2.40 Tommy’s Oscar 159; Too Firendly 156; Geromino 156; Gin Coco 148; First Impression 148; Matchless 148
3.15 Whistleinthepark 151; Sail Away 149; Manothepeople 146; Twoshotsoftequila 146

Hereford
1.00 Walk In Clover 120; Stanley Stanley 118; Heva Rose 117; Shirocco’s Dream 116; Do You Think 116;
1.35 Risk And Roll 147; Luttrell Lad 146; Lime Avenue 146; Call Me Lord 145
2.13 Mr Grey Sky 130; Chanceux 129; Western Zephyr 126; Beau Balko 126

Cheltenham
12.40 Are U Wise to That 142; Everything’sontick 139; Midnight Our Fred 138; Mofasa 137; Wiseguy 136
1.15 In Excelsis Deo 154; Prince Escalus 151; Madara 150; Calico 147
1.50 Fakir D’Oudairies 162; Jay Jay Reilly 158; Frero Banbou 157; Do Your Job 156; Il Ridoto 155
2.25 Elvis Mail 164; Easy As That 157; Broadway Boy 156; City Chief 156; Malina Girl 155
3.35 Zestful 145; Theatre Glory 142; Nurse Susan 141; Stainsby Girl 139

Newcastle
1.20 Sir Chauvelin 88; Achnamara 88; Franberri 87; Rhythmic Intent 86; Southern Voyage 86; Skilled Warrior 86
3.09 Dickieburd 109; Bielsa 105; Coachello 104; Admiral D 104

Wolverhampton
7.00 Finery 93; Cloud Cover 92; Maysan 92; Nine Tenths 89

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SUNDAY DECEMBER 17

Carlisle
1.35 Christopher Wood 130; Dubai Days 129; Universal Folly 129; Red Happy 127
2.10 Ramo 141; Howlingmadmurdock 135; Schalke 130; Court Dreaming 130

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MONDAY DECEMBER 18

Plumpton
1.10 Hardy Fella 124; Monjules 124; Pepe Le Muko 119; Oxygen 119

TUESDAY DECEMBER 19

Fakenham
2.40 YCCS Portocervo 131; Jony Max 124; Georges Saint 123; Scene One 122

Wincanton
3.20 Skycutter 120; Javert Allen 114; Out Of Focus 114

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WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 20

Ayr
1.35 Salamanca Bay 114; Midnight It Is 114; The Flier Begley 112

Ludlow
12.40 Latitude 153; Musical Slave 147; Quoi De Neuf 135; Gaboriot 103
1.50 Dr T J Eckleburg 126; Feel The Pinch 121; Gabrield’s Getaway 120

Newbury
1.25 Theatre Man 136; Brave Kingdom 134; Hector Javilex 134
3.10 Etalon 133; Fiston De Becon 125; In The Air 122; Mr Grey Sky 122

Kempton
7.00 Chantico 93; Evocative Spark 92; Crownthorpe 91; Urban Sprawl 90; Talis Evolvere 89
7.30 Baldomero 105; Coachello 104; Probe 104; Chipstead 103

THURSDAY DECEMBER 21

Exeter
2.25 Issam 135; Quinta Do Mar 133; Hasty Parisian 131; Molly Ollys Wishes 130
2.55 Arizona Cathedral 131; Mumbo Jumbo 127; Run To Milan 127; Top Of The Bill 125; Jubilee Express 125

Southwell
4.10 Bedford Flyer 108; Clarendon House 106; Alligator Alley 106; Clearpoint 104

Chelmsford
7.00 Prince Of Zenda 97; Sterling Knight 96; Darwell Lion 96; Riot 94

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FRIDAY DECEMBER 22

Ascot
12.45 Halifax 126; Immortal Fame 125; Rebel Intentions 125; Rathmacknee 123
1.55 Authorised Speed 151; Persian Time 141; Homme Public 140

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SATURDAY DECEMBER 23

Lingfield
1.25 Roarin’ Success 90; Twirling 89; Measured Moments 89

Haydock
1.30 Eleanor Bob 144; Credo 143; Cooper’s Cross 141; Enqarde 139
2.05 Bois Guillbert 125; The Churchill Lad 124; Bubble Dubi 123; Word Has It 122
2.40 Netywell 125; Bythesametoken 122; Rose Has Sea 118
3.15 J’Ai Froid 129; Our Sam 129; Niceandeasy 129; Ballymagroarty Boy 127

Newcastle
1.40 Ladronne 126; Nocte Volatus 125; Mint Gold 123; Everyday Champagne 122

Ascot
1.50 Black Gerry 154; Harper’s Brook 151; Triple Trade 149; Eden Du Houx 148
3.00 Hascouer Clermont 146; Switch Hitter 145; Flash Collonges 145; Blackjack Magic 141
3.35 Luccia 143; Nemean Lion 142; Salsada 142; Faivoir 140

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TUESDAY DECEMBER 26

Wetherby
1.35 Into Overdrive 170; Does He Know 152; Empire Steel 152
2.10 Foster’sisland 133; Santos Blue 130; The Four Sixes 126
2.45 No Risk Des Flos 135; Our Jet 132; Do Your Job 130

Aintree
12.30 Riders Onthe Storm 141; Mac Tottie 136
1.40 Minella Drama 154; Ted Hastings 147; Bucksy Des Epieres 146
2.15 Grandads Cottage 144; Valleres 131; Duke Of Deception 129; Snipe 128
2.50 Harbour Lake 156; Chasing Fire 142; Heros 139

Fontwell
11.57 For Pleasure 117; Sambezi 111

Market Rasen
2.57 Crosspark 123; Organdi 122; Geryville 121; Animal 121; Keep Wondering 120; Had To Be Hugo 120

Wincanton
12.18 Plenty Of Time 127; So Said I 111; It’s Easy 111
1.28 Lady Kk 125; No Hubs No Hoobs 121; Stellar Magic 118
3.13 Shallow River 133; Goshhowposh 132; Royal Pretender 128; No No Tonic 126

Kempton
12.45 Kotmask 141; Russian Ruler 139; Outlaw Peter 137; General Medrano 136; Blow Your Wad 136
3.40 Mark Of Gold 139; Artistic Endeavour 136; Mahons Glory 131; Will Carver 128

Wolverhampton
4.05 Misty Grey 110; Mount Athos 106; Intervention 106; Follow Your Heart 106
4.35 Felix 98; Sonnerie Power 96; Pearl Eye 94; Jilly Cooper 93

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WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 27

Wetherby – ABANDONED
2.45 Gold Des Bois 145; Xcitations 143; Cornerstone Lad 140

Chepstow
1.05 Good Risk At All 166; War Lord 165; First Flow 163
1.40 Uncle Bert 132; Dolphin Square 131; Tanganyika 131; J’Ai Froid 128
2.50 Iron Bridge 165; Complete Unkonwn 164; Amateur 161; Iwilldoit 160; THe Gallloping Bear 158
3.25 You Say Nothing 131; Zambesi Fix 129; Showbusiness 128; Greenrock Abbey 127

Kempton
12.45 Soaring Glory 135; Yorksea 134; Tapley 133; Brookie 132
2.30 Boothill 159; Elixir De Nutz 159; Grange Walk 155
3.09 Tweed Skirt 151; Strictlygodancer 149; Tea Clipper 143; Enrilo 139
3.40 Glimpse Of Gold 142; Gaye Legacy 140; Della Casa Luna 139; Lassue 138

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THURSDAY DECEMBER 28

Leicester
3.09 Belargus 135; Firak 128; Invincible Nao 125
3.43 Thunderclap 130; Inca De Lafayette 129; Gardener 128

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FRIDAY DECEMBER 29

Doncaster
11.55 Butler’s Brief 127; Jaytee 118; Fabuleux Du Clos 111
1.05 Richhill 140; Ukantango 135; Parisencore 134
2.45 A Wave Of The Sea 146; Dreaming Blue 141; Twinjets 131; Lord Accord 131

Kelso
12.45 Dunnet head 127; So Many Roads 124; Hashtag Boum 123; Imaginary Dragon 123; Kingston Bridge 123
1.20 Gold Des bois 137; Traprain Law 131; Duty Calls 129
1.55 Imperial Merlin 134; Overcourt 133; Gentleman De Mai 128; Domandlouis 128

Southwell
6.00 Galactic Jack 109; Diamond Bay 102; Onforthegutter 100; Zealandia 99; Graphite 99; Educator 99

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SATURDAY DECEMBER 30

Newbury
12.05 Amelia’s Dance 132; Parikarma 125; Walk Of No Shame 119; Greyval 116
1.15 Richhill 130; Guy 126; Martator 125; Issar d’Airy 125
1.50 Rambo T 144; Silent Revolution 143; ; Steal A March 134
2.25 Docpickedme 146; Atlanta Brave 138; Shanty Alley 128; Certainly Red 136; Bowtogreatness 136; Fantastikas 136
3.25 Passing Well 148; Golden Son 147; Walking On Air 146; Neon Moon 141

Haydock
1.25 Robyndzone 142; Fortescue 141; Fantastikas 139; East Street 139
2.35 Punta Del Este 143; Gaelik Coast 134; Start In Front 133
3.10 Gallic Geordie 137; Ned Tanner 135; Cerendipity 135; Regal Blue 132

Taunton
2.45 King Of The Lake 134; Moka De Vassy 132; Game Winner 127

Wolverhampton
5.45 Baldomero 96; Rousing Encore 94; Starshiba 94; Song For Whoever 93

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One race to finish the year if Uttoxeter survives tomorrow morning’s inspection. New Year’s Day ratings to follow with a review of last year’s results when I have them collated and analysed.

SUNDAY DECEMBER 31

Uttoxeter
2.10 Benassi 141; Sizing Pottsie 138; Benign Dictator 136

It wasn’t top rated, but Traprain Law was very impressive at Kelso yesterday on a track that walked heavy during my pre-meeting exercise*. Early evidence from last year suggested to Scottisah racing regulars that Traprain Law would be a chaser and need soft ground, and he cruiseed over this ground to win with any amount in hand. Campaigning will depend on owner Raymond Anderson Green’s choice of races, but this is one to note in handicap chases on testing ground.
The second Duty Calls ran another decent race in second and will surely bag a handicap chase before long. A few rooftop shrewdies were on the forecast to boost the winner’s odds.

* Rob North (Kelso hurdles track) – Early speed, weakened before 2 out and pulled up before last! (carrying a few pounds overweight after Christmas)

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Into the New Year and a whole host of handicaps on the opening day, some disappointing field sizes for jump racing but some very competitive contests on the flat at Newcastle. Southwell might have expected more than 8 declarations for a £75,000 pot at 1.39 (off now anyway due to waterlogging).

Not part of this exercise but I understand that Euchan Falls has been aimed at Musselburgh’s 2.55 by Mike Smith. A shade unlucky in this class over C/D on first chase outing then a creditable second raised a grade next time. Back in this class, at the right distance and at a track where he won over hurdles in February.

MONDAY JANUARY 1 2024

Southwell – ABANDONED
1.04 Grozni 139; Seigneur D’As 131; Ballybeen 131
1.39 Arqoob 152; Nemean Lion 148; Punctuation 148; Knickerbockerglory 146
2.14 Space Voyage 129; Eavesdropping 129; Bonttay 127; Good Luck Charm 127

Cheltenham
12.55 Petit Tonnerre 156; Fine Casting 149; Matata 143
1.30 Angels Breath 159; Cloudy Glen 146; Stumptown 144
2.05 Al Dancer 171; Frero Banbou 168; Shaken Up’Arry 161; Space Star 159
2.40 Ikarak 150; Fontasa Ellissi 150; Shantou Express 143; My Bobby Dazzler 143

Musselburgh
1.10 Lunar Power 145; Holmes St Georges 142; Afadil 140; In This World 140
1.45 Caithness 133; Belle Of Annandale 131; Collingham 130; Cancan 130
2.20 Fidelio Vallis 146; Corrigeen Rock 145; Frere D’Armes 143; Before Midnight 142

Newcastle
2.00 Onesmoothoperator 117; Evaluation 116; Roberto Escobarr 115; Enemy 115; Rainbow Dreamer 114
3.10 Storm Catcher 114; Beraz 108; Dingle 108; Sir Busker 107; Teumessias Fox 107
3.45 Urban Sprawl 112; Woodstock City 110; Fantastic Fox 109; Ron O 109; Chuzzlewit 107; Light Speed 107
4.15 Finery 108; Julia Augusta 105; Miss Bella Brand 102; Wild Side 101
4.45 Bazball 103; Neapolitan 102; I’m Spartacus 102; Loaded Gun 101 (careful, 4 near the top of the handicap don’t have handicap form)
5.15 Exalted Angel 114; Fivethousandtoone 114; Admiral D 112; Tacarib Bay 110; Gisburn 109; Way To Dubai 109

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TUESDAY JANUARY 2

Fakenham
3.00 Out Of Focus 129; Haafapiece 123; El Jefe 120

Ayr
1.45 Dorking Cock 145; Up Helly Aa King 134; Anti Bridgie 133
2.45 Rafferty’s Return 139; Ailie Rose 136; Wakool 135

Still working through the 2023 results. I’ve been comparing recent form ratings (presented in this thread) with the raw rating on overall form and the latter produces better returns, with a few fancy prices thrown up over the year 50/1, 40/1 , 33/1. On the down side it does top rate some horses with very poor recent form that have been dropped in the handicap significantly, though presumably this is the reason for some fancy prices. A notable example was Burbank 33/1 winner at Perth in April, form line currently reads P/PPP1-PP but the method collared him for the win! Winning percentage from top 3 marginally down for overall form compared to recent form, but not by far. More to come later…

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