Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

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WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 1

Kempton
6.15 Wild Side 100; Zero carbon 95; Mitrosonfire 91; Sterling Knight 91; Follow Your Heart 91; Soar Above 91
6.45 Willem Twee 106; Spangled Mac 105; Treacherous 102; Minnetonka 101; Buccaboy 101

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A bit late with today’s figures as I had assumed racing would be called off across the board, but it appears the weather has passed a bit further south. I will be off to Ayr on Saturday and the west coast has missed much of the rain, going currently ‘Good to Soft’.

THURSDAY NOVEMBER 2

Stratford
1.10 Shaken Up’Arry 137; Hystery Bere 137; El Muchacho 132

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FRIDAY NOVEMBER 3

Newmarket
2.00 Hartswood 99; Cantara 95; Laafi 94; Expressionless 94; Western Stars 94
3.10 Splendent 97; Carzola 97; Wind Your Neck In 96; Soto Sizzler 95; Graphite 94

Wetherby
1.50 Matchless 132; Ilanz 132; The Churchill Lad 129
3.00 No Risk Des Flos 150; Gloire d’Athon 149; Dubai Days 149; Famous Bridge 144

Newcastle
3.05 Yorkshire 102; Ascot Adventure 97; Sporting Hero 95; The Turpinator 94

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Weather not too bad up here, as opposed to elsewhere in Britain, Ayr currently Good to Soft and won’t get any softer if forecast is correct. Breakfast time start from Dunfermline for me with a decent card in prospect, a very decent looking novice hurdle opens the card and certainly worth being at the track in plenty of time. This thread concentrates on two competitive Class 3 handicaps, Nick Alexander has a good shout in both (Wakool and Dubai Days) and hit the ground running with Elvis Mail at Kelso last week.

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 4

NEWMARKET
2.10 Prince Of Zenda 109; Spirit Genie 96; One night Thunder 95; Carolus Magnus 94; Magic Memories 93

AYR
1.42 Aramax 147; Wakool 146; Caius Marcius 145; Schalke 145; Barbados Buck’s 141
2.15 Vintage Fizz 135; Blue d’Enfer 135; Dubai Days 133; Slanelough 127

ASCOT
1.30 Hermino AA 143; TimeforaTune 143; Twinjets 143; Scarface 137
2.05 Quel Destin 166; Cap Du Mathan 165; Saint Segal 162; The Last Day 161
3.15 Teddy Dlue 152; Camprond 147; Faivoir 147; Knickerbockerglory 147; Thereisnodoubt 146; Bad 146
3.45 Larry 158; Flegmatik 153; Eldorado Allen 151; Two For Gold 150; Mucho Mas 150

CHELMSFORD
4.30 Aalto 112; Urban Sprawl 103; Positive Impact 102; Azano 102; Excel Power 101

WETHERBY
1.15 Eaton Collina 129; William Cody 129; Thor De Cerisy 127; Gallic Geordie 125; Cruz Control 124
3.30 Haafapiece 138; Albert’s Back 134; Wiundtothelightning 128; Foster’sisland 125; Decorated 125

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SUNDAY NOVEMBER 5

Huntingdon
1.40 Mofasa 140; Bridge North 139; Hitching Jacking 136; Edison Kent 136

Carlisle
1.20 Presenting Jeremy 139; Trelawne 136; Brandy McQueen 133
3.05 Fosters’island 158; Cheddleton 151; Polisud 151; Shallow River 144
3.40 Yes Indeed 137; Flower Of Scotland 137; Wasdell Dundalk 137; Phantom Getaway 136; Street Value 132; Houston Texas 132

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MONDAY NOVEMBER 6

Plumpton
2.37 Forever William 142; Western General 140; Monjules 140; Lord Baddesley 139
3.07 Ballinsker 138; Dom of Mary 134; Wake Up Early 133; Midnight Mary 130

Kempton
4.00 Maso Bertie 114; Andaleep 107; Liseo 107; Graignes 106; Tenerife Sunshine 106
4.30 Mount Athos 107; Tacarib Bay 106; Larado 106

TUESDAY NOVEMBER 7

Chelmsford
12.55 Silver Gunn 98; Lucky Fifteen 93; Daysofourlives 89

WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 8

Musselburgh
3.25 Cedar Hill 148; Dreams Of Home 147; Cracking Destiny 146
4.00 Colonial Empire 132; Scots Poet 131; Theatre Legend 130; Matchless 129

Warwick
2.25 One More Fleurie 153; Jet Plane 138; Major Dundee 136; Arizona Cardinal 136

Kempton
7.00 Danger Alert 108; Aramis Grey 107; May Sonic 103; Fivethousandtoone 103; Prop Forward 102; Clearpoint 102
7.30 Rainbow Dreamer 112; Vino Victrix 108; Enemy 104; Sir Chauvelin 102

Looking back over results in recent months, the top rated has been performing abysmally. However, winners from the top 3 has remianed around 40% which is a decent marker in these race. A crude elimination of a putting line thorugh top rated over 10-1 takes out a whole stack of losers (and not many winners), with returns not far short of break even overall and really good during the ‘high summer’.

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THURSDAY NOVEMBER 8

Newbury
12.05 Castel Gandolfo 139; Made For You 139; Brentford Hope 135; Bread And Butter 129
1.15 Come On Gruff 153; Pulling Stumps 152; Way Out 148; Inch Howse 148
2.25 Only The Bold 155; Our Power 153; Fifty Ball 148; Bold Endeavour 144
3.00 Eden Du Houx 141; Galop De Chasse 139; Family Business 139; Gloire D’Athon 136; Raffle Ticket 136; Belargus 136

Ludlow
1.25 Thankyourluckystar 125; Jubliee Express 123; Inishbiggle 123; Tightenyourbelts 122

Chelmsford
7.30 Mr Professor 113; Felix 105; Storm Catcher 104; Base Note 100

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FRIDAY NOVEMBER 10

Exeter
3.30 Solo 175; Elixir De Nutz 174; Indiana Jones 158
4.00 Run To Milan 131; Make Me A Believer 130; Iberio 130; Collectors Item 129

Newcastle
4.45 Spangled Mac 105; Alligator Alley 103; Mondammej 102; Lord Riddiford 98

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 11

Newcastle
3.15 Roman Dragon 111; Gisburn 109; Brewing 108; Monsieur Kodi 108
3.45 Chillingham 113; Prydwen 109; Teumessias Fox 107; Pleasant Man 105

Kelso
1.05 Teescomponentstrig 135; Lock Down Luke 126; Shoeshine Boy 124; Butler’s Brief 123; Artic Mann 123
1.40 Massini Man 129; High Moon 128; Ned Tanner 127; Up Helly AA King 124; Cardamon Hill 124

Aintree
1.00 Tiger Orchid 154; Giovinco 147; Lord Of Kerak 147
1.35 Hillview 152; Storm Nelson 148; Icare Allen 142; Imperial Merlin 142; Risk And Roll 141
2.10 Fearless 137; One Fine Man 136; Chanceux 134; Netywell 134; Real Stone 132
2.45 Gesskille 155; Fantastic Lady 122; Cooper’s Cross 147; Percussion 146; Half Shot 145

Wincanton
1.15 Volkovka 136; Dreaming Blue 135; Enjoy Your Life 133; Midnight Mate 132; Go Steady 131
2.25 Courtland 163; Gustavian 163; Threeunderthrufive 158; Frodon 156; Blackjack Magic 156
3.32 Plenty Of time 132; Vicki Vale 127; Great Snow 127; Space Voyage 125; Good Luck Charm 125

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Missed yesterday’s figures as I was caught up with various matters, not least the first time I’ve done wreath laying on behalf of the Rotary at Kincardine.

MONDAY NOVEMBER 13

Kempton
2.25 Deyrann De Carjac 131; Fairway Freddy 126; Le Ligerien 122
3.00 Copper Coin 152; Soaring Glory 150; Kitty’s Light 148
3.30 Mulberry Hill 125; Pass The Love On 124; Notnowlinda 123

Wolverhampton
7.30 All The King’s Men 94; Capital Guarantee 94; Documenting 91

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There’s a definite shift ni the way the BHA handicappers are dealing with winners. This has apparently affected returns on the top rates of this method so I’ve made a tweak to calculations, using the second horse in the ‘form race’ as the measure rather than the winner. I think this will eliminate a few of the silly figures caused by horses been well beaten behind an easy winner.

TUESDAY NOVEMBER 14

Lingfield
3.05 Fifty Ball 130; Halondo 128; Bells Of Peterboro 126

Huntingdon
3.15 Onemorefortheroad 135; Salsada 132; Moveit Like Minnie 130; Coolnaugh Haze 130

Newcastle
2.50 Pendleton 98; Primeval 97; Secret Guest 96; Hello Queen 95

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WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 15

Bangor
1.00 Bumpy Johnson 124; Planned Paradise 121; Good Work 119
2.05 Eden Du Houx 147; Shanty Alley 143; Grandads Cottage 138
3.15 Jungle Jack 147; Lac De Cnostance 120; Up For Parol 116

Newcastle
4.15 One Night Thunder 92; Urban Sprawl 91; Fantastic Fox 90; Titan Rock 90

Kempton
7.30 Kenzai Warrior 107; Buxted Too 101; Royal Scandal 94; Haku 94

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FRIDAY NOVEMBER 17

Cheltenham
1.10 Off to A Flyer 135; Uncle Bert 129; Arabian King 128; Son Of The Somme 127; Knockamore 127; Hauraki Gulf 126
1.45 Madara 147; Guy 145; No Risk Des Flos 143; Triple Trade 142; Gold Des Bois 140
2.55 Galvin 169; Dieu Vivant 158; Foxy Jacks 155; Musical Slave 154; Francky Du Berlais 147
4.05 Mr Mackay 130; Downtherefordancin 124; Tintintin 123; Showman 123; Donnacha 123; En Avant 123; Caithness 122

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SATURDAY NOVEMBER 18

Linfield
2.01 Thundering 103; Regheeb 97; Greatgadian 94; Udaberri 93

Wetherby
12.44 Jungle Jack 150; Nells Son 134; Inedit Star 133
1.19 Bashers Reflection 133; Serious Operator 131; Copper Beach 129; Haafapiece 121
1.54 Lets Go To Vegas 141; Ubetya 137; Cornerstone Lad 132; Good Work 130
3.04 Richmond Lake 139; Punta Del Este 135; Start In Front 128

Cheltenham
1.10 Blame The game 147; Manothepeople 139; Outside The Door 139; Chambard 136; Plenty Of Time 136
2.20 The Real Whacker 166; Unexpected Party 166; Final Orders 162; Authorized Art 161; Easy As That 161
2.55 Real Steel 150; Judicial Law 147; Moka de Vassy 147; Polish 147; Noble Birth 147; The newest one 146
3.30 Springwell Bay 149; Wonderful Eagle 139; Resplendent Grey 137; Gyenyame 136

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SUNDAY NOVEMBER 19

Fontwell
1.33 Word Has It 125; Yorksea 122; Up For Parol 102
2.04 Tommie Beau 130; Wake Up Early 124; Gerico Ville 107

Cheltenham
1.45 Railway Hurricane 136; Wonderwall 135; Elle Perfecta 135; Crebilly 133
2.20 Captain Cattistock 144; Flash collonges 144; City Chief 142; Bangers And Cash 142; Guetapan Collonges 40; Dom Of Mary 140
3.30 Go Dante 145; L’Eau Du Sud 143; Afadil 142; Swaffham Bulbeck 140; Iberico Lord 140; Nemean Lion 139; Anyharminasking 139

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MONDAY NOVEMBER 20

Exeter
3.30 Pimlico Point 143; Wiseguy 138; Watergrange Jack 137; Pulling Stumps 137

Plumpton
1.40 Ree Okka 144; Hermino AA 138; Brave Kingdom 138

Kempton
6.30 Symbol Of Light 106; Caragio 104′ Autumn Festival 102; Choisya 101; Hafeet Alain 101
7.00 Andaleep 85; Perseus Way 85; Mostly Sunny 85; Duke Of Oxford 85; Dancing Harry 84; C’mon Kenny 84; World Without Love 84

TUESDAY NOVEMBER 21

Lingfield
1.45 Super Survivor 137; Git Maker 130; Morning Spirit 128
2.20 Benassi 130; Rocky Man 130; Operation Manna 128

Chelmsford
6.30 Celsius 101; Justcallmepete 96; Baldomero 95; Night On Earth 95

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WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 22

Warwick
3.15 Bennys King 153; Aye right 148; Mill Green 148

Ffos Las
2.15 Kepagee 125; Felicie De Maquis 122; Walkinthewoods 120
2.50 Balkardy 125; Calssic Concorde 125; Grove Road 124; Ballymagroarty Boy 123

Wolverhampton
6.30 Strong Johnson 107; Mondammej 106; Clarendon House 102; Alligator Alley 102; Glorious Angel 102

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THURSDAY NOVEMBER 23

Market rasen
1.40 Le Milos 156; Spike Jones 150; Jet Of Magic 134; Giovanni Change 134

Newcastle
3.00 Hello Judge 123; Glory And Honour 122; Shadows In The Sky 118

Wincanton
12.55 Tritonic 149; Soul Icon 138; Scarface 138
2.40 Killaloan 136; Vision Des flos 127; Itso Fury 123; Ilanz 121

Wolverhampton
7.00 Nolton Cross 96; Oneforthegutter 95; Zealandia 95; Rhythmic Intent 94
8.00 Clearpoint 95; Lord riddiford 94; Dynamic force 85; Nelson Gay 84

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