- This topic has 252 replies, 36 voices, and was last updated 3 years, 7 months ago by
.
- Posts
UK Met Office shows light rain for Paris area tom morn, then showers for the afternoon.
Meteogroup, for the BBC, shows just a few light showers.“Royallieu was slower – 14.96 seconds slow for 1m6f.”
Apologies that’s the race i meant. Got race names mixed up. I didn’t see the other race.
Last year’s Arc was run on heavy ground and was 8.02s slower than standard – times today are even slower:
1st race 1m6f: 12.68s slower
2nd race 1m7f: 14.96s slower
3rd race 1m4f: 11.31s slower
4th race 1m: 9.40s slower
5th race 2m4f: 12.62s slowerJockeys are reporting very tiring ground and the sun is out at the moment which probably isn’t what is needed as that will make it sticky and even harder to gallop through, there is some rain due tomorrow which in enough quantity will help loosen the ground up some.
Whatever happens it will be attritional and suspect stayers will get found out.
Anmaat was 5.57 seconds slow for 1m1f65yds in the Prix Dollar – that is 0.6 seconds per furlong.
I make that Soft ground at worst, though as stated in the past I don’t regard the RP standard times for French race tracks as particularly reliable – I’ve known horses smash standard by four seconds plus over middle distances on officially Soft ground.
There has been 13mm rain in Paris in the last 24 hours with 3mm forecast in the next 24 hours.
Unless more rain materialises than that, I don’t personally think the ground will be as desperate as it was last year.
Game of opinions, though.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I don’t know what happened to my earlier post (would post the angry face emoji here but that isn’t an option on this forum, despite the fact that it would be the most popular by far!).
Possibility of heavy rain early tomorrow morning but we just don’t know. Even without going uncertainty, it’s still wide open. I’m going Mendocino & Al Hakeem each way. No confidence but reckon both will finish ahead of some of the more fancied runners!
In a lot of the races they were finishing at shockingly wide intervals for French racing where usually a large blanket covers most of the field.
A lot of those times indicate heavy with only Anmaat’s race suggesting soft, his time was a bit of an anomaly on the day as even the last two mile races (for 3yr olds and upwards), a G2 and handicap respectively were 7.51s and 8.60s slower with the earlier mile 2yr old conditions race being 9.40s slow.
Maybe Anmaat & the 2nd horse Junko are both horses to follow going forward off the back of running that time?
LD73, the Cadran was 0.63 seconds per furlong slower than standard.
I’m not saying you’re wrong – game of opinions – as French standard times and going descriptions can be notoriously unreliable.
But my memory of last year was it was already pretty testing on the Saturday and the rainfall overnight was Biblical.
I’ll be very interested to see the times of the two juvenile Group 1s tomorrow.
One thing is for sure – a fascinating day’s racing awaits us!
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"No doubt and I would imagine we are in for some shocks as well – what we can be sure of is that Baaeed’s connections made the right decision to avoid the war of attrition tomorrow is likely to be.
Just 1mm of rain at the track overnight I’m hearing and unlikely to be more before the Arc itself.
I think it’s between Soft and Very Soft (depending on your criteria), but not Heavy.
They certainly haven’t had the Biblical overnight rain they had last year.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Latest going stick readings: 2400m GP: 6.2 2000m GP: 6.1 1600m GP: 6.2 1400m NP: 6.1 1000m LD: 6.9
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"All ante-post bets
Torquator Tasso
Alenquer each way
Mendocino each wayApologies to Ian for the each ways
Edit: UK Met Office still says heavy rain by 1.00pm, for a couple of hours. But Meteogroup (BBC) only forecasting showers. I think it’s the system that’s hit here and Southern England this morn, forecast to drop south/south east into France.
“Apologies to Ian for the each ways”
Absolutely shocking – zero moral fibre there.
Good portfolio, though – I’ll be surprised if you don’t get a return.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"My ew 3. Good luck all.
Luxembourg 16-1 free bet. Topped up at 6s.
Vadeni 11-1 free bet
Al Hakeem 28-1Onesto has improved every race to date and conditions and likely strong pace will suit him. Torquator Tasso is the other one I’d be interested in at the prices with Mendocino (beat Torquator Tasso last time although the runner up would have been being prepped for this no doubt) the likeliest outsider. Those will be my plays in it.
This is a whole new game for Alpinista although she’s the one I’d most like to see win. Titleholder also faces new challenges. Vadeni has the talented lunatic on board which is an advantage here but trip may find him out. Mishriff may also find an attritional mile and half beyond him although his price does catch the eye. I don’t think Westover is near good enough.
Something about Luxembourg hasn’t quite won me over and this is his first go at the trip so although he has plenty going for him I’ll be taking him on.Cormack
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.