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Taken 15/2 against Alpinista, which I think is perfectly fair.
I very much doubt Baaeed will run even after the slightly more ambiguous messages today.
I like Vadeni but I am not convinced he is a stayer.
She has won on everything from firm to soft (and that was Haydock soft) so ground wouldn’t be an issue
The Haydock win was a grade 2 with the runner up rated 98.
I’ll take trainer’s word that decent ground is her optimum. He’s keen on the Japan Cup as well which reinforces that theory.
Plus, in the preview yesterday…
The Prescott team are eager to land that elusive British Group 1 with Alpinista for her owner Kirsten Rausing and her Lanwades Stud operation.
Assistant trainer William Butler said: “We’ve been happy with her preparations and it looks like she’s going to get her fast ground, which we feel she’s best on. It’s all systems go.”Itd already a sub standard arc ian, there is no genuine 12f 122+ animal in it
And mike, i think ive said this 50 times to you through the years, just because the trainer sais a horse is better on said ground doesnt make it so, the form does and shes proven versatile on g/s and soft, i wouldnt be concerned given her time on GS was fast
For all its worth as said above i like alpinista for this
But there has to be a solid chance the german outsider will double up and make it 2/2 if it turns heavy, i may cover him for that angle
ham wouldn’t always be the politest bloke on this forum, but I totally agree with him on the above.
I have access to the form, I really don’t need to know what distance or ground best suits a horse according to said horse’s trainer.
They’re frequently wrong, anyway.
Trainer quotes are NOT form.
You absolutely have to have an independent mind and opinions of your own to keep your head above water as a punter in this game.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“And mike, i think ive said this 50 times to you through the years, just because the trainer sais a horse is better on said ground doesnt make it so”.
I’ll keep the information coming. :o)
It is important to listen to the trainer in one sense as if the ground gets very soft like it can in the Arc she might not run and your ante post bet is in the bin despite your opinion being that she goes on any ground
The only way she doesn’t run in the Arc is if she is injured – this has been the plan since they crossed the line in last year’s Arc and whilst heavy ground would not be the preferred underfoot conditions, many more in the race would be much more inconvenienced by it than her.
Alpinista will definitely run.
Prescott said today he felt very clever dodging Longchamp last year and mopping up those German Group 1s until….one of the horses she’d beat went and won the Arc!
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“one of the horses she’d beat went and won the Arc!”
Yeh i know. It was good ground ;o)
I think she will run whatever the weather. The Japan Cup is end of November so she has time to recover if the Arc ground turns testing and she has a tough time.
Dettori currently only on because the regular rider (who has ridden him in his last 7 starts) is retained to ride Mendocino in the race and the owner is insistent he honours his contract – whether that changes for the Arc isn’t known (or maybe it is but just hasn’t been confirmed publically at this time – may depend on how well Dettori gets on with him).
Whoever rides him, they will still need the heavens to open and conditions to be like last year for him to win as on better ground he looks comfortably held by both Alpinista and Pyledriver.
I took 5/4 with a run immediately after York and I can’t see him being that price – even on the Pari-Mutuel – if he runs.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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