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Gotta say I’m with Nathan here GT.
MJ is going to MJ it like he did with Awzaan and Lumiere.
Gotta say I’m with Nathan here GT.
MJ is going to MJ it like he did with Awzaan and Lumiere.
Awzaan was by Alhaarth, only three horses by Alhaarth have been rated above Awzaan’s 118 RPR. One of those was Bandari, also trained by MJ. So Awzaan did pretty well to reach that rating. Not surprising he wasn’t good enough to win a Guineas.
Lumiere was well bred. Only had three races as a two year old, so hardly over-raced. Ran as if something was wrong in the Guineas. Off over two months before proving she’d trained on well. Winning her next start in the listed “Sir Henry Cecil”; equalling her Timeform 2 year old rating. Also a good length second in the Challenge Stakes.
Your sample size is extremely small considering odds.
Mark Johnston doesn’t have many classic hopes. What about Attraction and Mister Baileys? They both trained on well and won their Guineas. In fact, Attraction won four Group 1’s as a three year old; the Irish Guineas, Coronation Stakes and Sun Chariot too. Not as if I am saying Nyaleti has a great chance of winning the Guineas. All am saying is imo she stands a better than 4% chance (better than 25/1).Value Is EverythingGinge you had 4 earlier in a 7 horse race
Is 25/1 value or not, “value is everything”, yet you are passing….
Do they do odds on the horse coming in last place….?When betting day of race then (if I’m right in my assessments) each horse I back increases overall value in the race. eg Let’s say I rate four horses as fair 12.5% chances (fair 7/1 chances) and they’re all available at 9/1 (10%).
If I back just one horse then imo am taking a price 2.5% better than my assessment (12.5 – 10 = 2.5).
If backing two of the 9/1 shots then am taking 2 X 12.5 = 25% about a 2 x 10 = 20%. So the difference in my assessment to the price I’ve taken is now 25 – 20 = 5% which is double what it would be if only backing one horse. It’s taking 4/1 about something I believe has a fair 3/1 chance.
If backing three then the difference would be 3 X 2,5 = 7.5%. ie taking a shade better than 9/4 about something I believe has a shade better than 13/8.
If backing all four of the horsees I believe are value then am taking 4 X 2.5 = 10% better than my assessment. Taking 6/4 about something I believe has a fair Even money chance.
Of course I need to be good at assessing value, if am only right about two of the four horses then it’s likely to cancel out the value. So you and Gord’s thing about backing more horses being easy is wrong.
But now look at the above as ante-post bets: Ante-post is different because the more horses a punter backs the more there’s a chance of having a non-runner and (unlike day of race) non-runners are losers. So backing two is as said, taking 4/1 about what I believe has a 3/1 chance. Now say I back a third horse, at that point am taking just above 9/4 about something I believe has just above a 13/8 chance. But if one horse is a non-runner then the value reduces or disappears. In this case I’d then be taking 9/4 about what would now have returned to what imo is only a fair 3/1 shot. ie the non-runner has ruined my value.
Value Is EverythingSorry ginge, that’s a load of tosh
I suggested not backing the horse as She’s likely to be a non runner or not good enough
You come on saying “value is everything” yet have not backed the horse at 25/1 despite saying that price will soon disappear off the face of the world once timeform have their say
Clemmie and Alpha themselves could turn out to be non runners so your 25’s on MJ’s horse will get even smaller better valueGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Sorry ginge, that’s a load of tosh
I suggested not backing the horse as She’s likely to be a non runner or not good enough
You come on saying “value is everything” yet have not backed the horse at 25/1 despite saying that price will soon disappear off the face of the world once timeform have their say
Clemmie and Alpha themselves could turn out to be non runners so your 25’s on MJ’s horse will get even smaller better valueI’ve explained why Nayeti is a value bet if you’re only going to have one or two ante-post bets, Nathan… And I’ve also explained why a punter is risking that “value” disappearing with non-rnners if backing too many horses ante-post. ie No longer being “value”. That’s why “value is everything“.
Value Is EverythingWhat price would you back Nyaleti at then Ginge….?
26/1
33/1
bigger….?Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Well if this thread doesn’t expose Gingers contrary views nothing will..Having 3 horses Ante-Post in the same race isn’t for you…What?..You could have 25/1,25/1,25/1 about Clemmie,Alpha Centauri and Nyaleti all of whom will go off single figures on the day and if one wins you are laughing..Of course come the day your 100% book will miraculously mirror whats in the Oddschecker box anyway and you will have 6 horses running for you in the same race all under 10/1…Your return on the race will be about 1/3,where’s the skill in that?…For the record I have one bet in the race and thats Clemmie at 20/1,hardly original but she is related to my avatar photo who won the 2000gns.
Exactly Gord, ginger has got his carrot all twisted up
I think ginge is trying to up his edge, he is proclaiming Nyaleti to be value yet not backing it himself trying to create a false market and over on the other thread trying to get new and naive people involved in the sport to spend mug money punting the fav’s giving him value on his picks.
You don’t work for the bookies do you ginge, you’re not Segal’s assistant by chance eh, milk no sugar, please…
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Exactly Gord, ginger has got his carrot all twisted up
I think ginge is trying to up his edge, he is proclaiming Nyaleti to be value yet not backing it himself trying to create a false market and over on the other thread trying to get new and naive people involved in the sport to spend mug money punting the fav’s giving him value on his picks.
You don’t work for the bookies do you ginge, you’re not Segal’s assistant by chance eh, milk no sugar, please…I thought everyone knew September is the Guineas winner?
Those of us on at 25s and 10s are laughing as she wins the fillies mile at the end of this season before going off 4/5 for the Guineas and wins by 6 lengths.
She’s a superstar. And she will destroy every single one of the challengers like nyaletti as many times as necessary
You could have 25/1,25/1,25/1 about Clemmie,Alpha Centauri and Nyaleti all of whom will go off single figures on the day and if one wins you are laughing.
I thought you might have got a better price. :lol:
As ever, Gord; over confidence lets you down. You are not Mystic Meg.
I know you like to believe all you need to do is think of something and it will happen; sadly things don’t happen like that.
In racing there are several possible outcomes to everything. It’s up to punters to consider how likely something is and if the odds make it worth risking an investment.
In practice, nobody actually knows whether Coolmore might have more top class three year old mile fillies in May so Clemmie might not run. You and I believe that won’t happen but there’s a possibility. I’ve used my knowledge to make a decision that all three will probably stay a mile, but can’t be certain (nobody can). May be by in early May one, two, or all three trainers might have given up on the mile – don’t run. I believe all three will progress, but could be proved wrong about any and possibly all three. May be one or more will disappoint in future races and not be as capable come May. If one horse has a lesser chance, then even if running it lessens the value of the other two. The main problem though is risk of injury or not be in A1 condition. By backing three horses there’s a bigger danger that at least one will get injured or tainer/s has a virus. Doesn’t need to be anything serious, just to stop it from running on the day.If backing three horses @ 25/1 and one is a non-runner, the price a punter has actually got about each horse is around 16/1. Divide the overall stake in to two and times that figure X 16 = just short of what you get with stake divided by three on 25/1 shots. ie Non runner reduces the value of the other two.
If two are non-runners then your one 25/1 bet left needs to be available on the day @ 15/2 or shorter for the ante-post punter to get back more than a day of race punter… And even if only available @ 15/2 was it really worth the risk of losing £300 for all those 9 months the bets have been going to get back only a little bit more? To be truly worth the risk I’d want that one (of three 25/1 ante-post bets) to be available @ 11/2 or shorter.
Risk of non-runners need to be taken in to account when betting ante-post… And the more bets ante-post the more chance of non-runner/s… And the longer in advance the bet is struck the more chance of non-runner/s.
As it is, having already backed Clemmie and Alpha Centauri I’ve got to hope either both turn up or the one left is a lot shorter on the day. If also backing Nyaleti then it would be an even greater risk, especially as it’s 9 months to Newmarket. The more bets I have in the the race, the bigger value another horse needs to be before I’ll back it. So yes Nathan, if Nyaleti was truly exceptional value (say 50/1) I’d back it – even with the other two. Also, when we’re closer to the day I may also reconsider having another bet as it reduces the chance of injury/non-runners.
Value Is EverythingYou could have 25/1,25/1,25/1 about Clemmie,Alpha Centauri and Nyaleti all of whom will go off single figures on the day and if one wins you are laughing.
I thought you might have got a better price. 😆
As ever, Gord; over confidence lets you down. You are not Mystic Meg.
I know you like to believe all you need to do is think of something and it will happen; sadly things don’t happen like that.
In racing there are several possible outcomes to everything. It’s up to punters to consider how likely something is and if the odds make it worth risking an investment.
In practice, nobody actually knows whether Coolmore might have more top class three year old mile fillies in May so Clemmie might not run. You and I believe that won’t happen but there’s a possibility. I’ve used my knowledge to make a decision that all three will probably stay a mile, but can’t be certain (nobody can). May be by in early May one, two, or all three trainers might have given up on the mile – don’t run. I believe all three will progress, but could be proved wrong about any and possibly all three. May be one or more will disappoint in future races and not be as capable come May. If one horse has a lesser chance, then even if running it lessens the value of the other two. The main problem though is risk of injury or not be in A1 condition. By backing three horses there’s a bigger danger that at least one will get injured or tainer/s has a virus. Doesn’t need to be anything serious, just to stop it from running on the day.If backing three horses @ 25/1 and one is a non-runner, the price a punter has actually got about each horse is around 16/1. Divide the overall stake in to two and times that figure X 16 = just short of what you get with stake divided by three on 25/1 shots. ie Non runner reduces the value of the other two.
If two are non-runners then your one 25/1 bet left needs to be available on the day @ 15/2 or shorter for the ante-post punter to get back more than a day of race punter… And even if only available @ 15/2 was it really worth the risk of losing £300 for all those 9 months the bets have been going to get back only a little bit more? To be truly worth the risk I’d want that one (of three 25/1 ante-post bets) to be available @ 11/2 or shorter.
Risk of non-runners need to be taken in to account when betting ante-post… And the more bets ante-post the more chance of non-runner/s… And the longer in advance the bet is struck the more chance of non-runner/s.
As it is, having already backed Clemmie and Alpha Centauri I’ve got to hope either both turn up or the one left is a lot shorter on the day. If also backing Nyaleti then it would be an even greater risk, especially as it’s 9 months to Newmarket. The more bets I have in the the race, the bigger value another horse needs to be before I’ll back it. So yes Nathan, if Nyaleti was truly exceptional value (say 50/1) I’d back it – even with the other two. Also, when we’re closer to the day I may also reconsider having another bet as it reduces the chance of injury/non-runners.
But all these bets are on the wrong horses. Where’s September in all this?
I can’t see Nyaleti winning the Guineas for the life of me and certainly 25/1 isn’t enticing me in for an each-way punt; I’d want 40/1.
Agree with M_O_M; September seems very much the horse to beat and I’d rather take 11/2 for her than 25/1 for the horse who finished behind her at Ascot all day long.
Of course come the day your 100% book will miraculously mirror whats in the Oddschecker box anyway and you will have 6 horses running for you in the same race all under 10/1…Your return on the race will be about 1/3,where’s the skill in that?…For the record I have one bet in the race and thats Clemmie at 20/1,hardly original but she is related to my avatar photo who won the 2000gns.
I bet you’ve backed Clemmie each way Gord? Two bets, one main bet and one saver.
I choose to do the vast majority of my bets as win only, my saver/s is/are usually on other horses.
With each way bets a punter has no choice, the same amount of money is on the place (saver) bet as the win (main). Therefore, I can often have two saver win bets on other horses with the money I could’ve had on the place part of an each way bet.Not that every one of my bets are win only. I had a small day of race each way bet on Another Touch @ 5/1 in the 3:30 Ponte yesterday. The only horse I backed in the race, but will be counted as two bets, one main and one saver.
The number of bets I have per race averages out at just short of three.
If you Gord back just one horse ante-post it would be two bets… and we know you often bet more than one horse per race.
Although a lot of the time just one turns up – for all you might like to – can not forget about non-runner losers.
With every each way ante-post non-runner you have, two bets are lost. One main win bet and one saving place bet.My average amount won compared to average amount staked is around 2/1.
Because my strike rate is extremely high, the return on investment over the years is good. Hope it’s the same with you after your poor strike rate and loads of ante-post non-runner losers are taken in to account.
Value Is EverythingI thought everyone knew September is the Guineas winner?
Oaks winner MOM…Clemmie wins the 1000 gns.
The number of bets I have per race averages out at just short of three.
Dozen…
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