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I think I understand where Ginge is coming from here. I get the thought process.
I had a conversation with a colleague the other day. We take the mick a bit because he loves a slimy each-way in a novice hurdle, but he defended himself and said that he’s more than just a dirty e/w robot – he doesn’t play in every race with that sort of market shape and never uses any selection where he thinks the ‘win half’ of the bet is underpriced. That’s no matter how good the place side might be. You’ve got to be snobbish about your value – you need to have a pretty chunky % in hand to beat the overrounds and balance your own margin for error.
I guess GT is thinking along similar lines. He makes Nyaleti 16/1 when 25/1 is available but that’s a razor thin edge and he backs himself to find better opportunities, as shown by the portfolio he already has on next year’s 1000 Guineas. 16/1 v 25/1 isn’t a huge value grab even if you could guarantee that it exists in real terms. Evidently GT feels 8/1 Clemmie and 20/1 Alpha Centauri are much bigger steals.
It sounds like wonky logic at first, but the kid’s talking sense, I think!
The stalker comment was just a joke, Nathan. Because you’ve kept on at this Nyaleti thing for a long time despite me trying to explain again and again. Sorry if that tipped you over the edge; but at least I know how you truly feel now.
Value Is EverythingBut all these bets are on the wrong horses. Where’s September in all this?
By Deep Impact out of Peeping Fawn
imo Come next year September may well need further than a mile.
In the Chesham, Nyaleti went faster than even fractions early and did well to stay on as well as she did. September won not by speed but by staying on. Slowing down at a lesser rate than the second. I don’t say Nyaleti would’ve beaten September had the rider got the pace right, do think she’d have been closer.September is a good filly, but the way that race shaped up allied to her middle distance breeding strongly suggests to me that she’ll be better at 10f+.
Added to that, September is tiny. Horses of her size are often best as two year olds. That’s probably why she was ready early – is she still the only O’Brien first time out winner?
September might be able to improve a little more at a mile this season. However, horses need to progress physically from two to three just to stand still. ie Needing to “improve” around 7 lbs just to be able to acieve the same rating as a three year old as she did at two… And in all probability will need to improve on her season’s end rating to win a Guineas.
Not that she definitely will not progress, just that there’s a bigger chance than with most two year olds. She might still win the Guineas, but the speed and size questions make her (imo) one to take on at current prices. But @ 25/1 September you’ve got a a good value bet, MOM.
It was actually the Oaks I’ve got 25s for. I’m absolutely all over her for that.
I do also have her for the Guineas though at 12s.
Sorry about that. I got confused there. But 12s is still good.
And 16/1 for the double.
But I’ll be at Epsom as she wins the oaks for a 4 figure return
But I’ll be at Epsom as she wins the oaks for a 4 figure return
GL MOM,
That’s worth having!…Oh and… I backed the second, third and fourth in the Lennox.
Beaten by a Nan! She deserves a
and a 
Value Is EverythingI’m knowhere near being tipped off the edge yet ginge, keep trying though…
Lost Soldier, Ginge has said he would of backed Nyaleti at 25’s if he hadn’t already taken the other two so does believe it is value worth backing.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
There’s two Football teams I believe to be value to score the most league goals at 8/1 and 10/1 I back them both
A third team signs the worlds greatest striker and are also now value at 4/1 to be the leagues top scorers, I make them 1/1 but because I have backed the other two I will only back them if they are 12/1 because of the risk their striker may break his ankle and be out for the season.Any striker of any team could break their ankle at any time so should I have been seeking exceptional value in the first place on all teams, not just value.?
Yes the more you back the chance one could be a non runner is higher but you can’t tell which one although to me it’s more likely to be Nyaleti on grounds shes not good enough but then exceptional value should be sought anyway not a razor thin edge as a first bet in the race, perhaps…..?
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I’ve deleted a few posts which comprised nothing other than people having a go at each other. Come on lads, you both know better.
On percentages. YES you have to beat the percentages somewhere along the way to get ahead long term but NO it isn’t the only way of looking at things. GT finds it easier to size up a race when he converts odds to percentages, others find it more intuitive to estimate a horse’s wining chance in terms of odds.
Here’s the thing – BOTH ARE EXACTLY THE SAME – an expression of probabilities. a 4/1 shot is the same as a horse with a 20% chance – another way of expressing it would be to say it has a 1 in 5 chance of winning.
Neither way is ‘right’ and neither is ‘wrong’, different people find different ways of looking at it easier depending, I guess, on how their minds work, so can we stop arguing endlessly about it.
I’ve deleted a few posts which comprised nothing other than people having a go at each other. Come on lads, you both know better.
Value Is EverythingOn percentages. YES you have to beat the percentages somewhere along the way to get ahead long term but NO it isn’t the only way of looking at things. GT finds it easier to size up a race when he converts odds to percentages, others find it more intuitive to estimate a horse’s wining chance in terms of odds.
Here’s the thing – BOTH ARE EXACTLY THE SAME – an expression of probabilities. a 4/1 shot is the same as a horse with a 20% chance – another way of expressing it would be to say it has a 1 in 5 chance of winning.
Neither way is ‘right’ and neither is ‘wrong’, different people find different ways of looking at it easier depending, I guess, on how their minds work, so can we stop arguing endlessly about it.
Sometimes it is necessary to use percentages to explain something, as in this thread.
Yes, a fair “4/1 shot is the same as a horse with a 20% chance”, David… And yes, that’s the same as 1 in 5. When looking at a race I think of a fair 4/1 as 4/1, not percentages.
However, I think it is important to point out that punters should not think of a 4/1 shot on a bookmakers board as a 20% chance. It has a bookmaker’s mark up added and either influenced by how much money’s wagered on the horse or (Early Odds) just an odds compiler’s opinion.
As far as odds seen on a bookmaker’s board are concerned: Any individual horse priced up @ 7/1 could possibly be considered by the punter a “fair 4/1” chance of winning and therefore a good bet to win. One priced up @ 11/4 could possibly be considered by the punter as a “fair 4/1” chance and therefore a poor bet to win/good lay bet. ie When it comes to horse racing, what is and what is not a fair 4/1 (20% or 1 in 5) chance is only an opinion.
Value Is EverythingThere’s two Football teams I believe to be value to score the most league goals at 8/1 and 10/1 I back them both
A third team signs the worlds greatest striker and are also now value at 4/1 to be the leagues top scorers, I make them 1/1 but because I have backed the other two I will only back them if they are 12/1 because of the risk their striker may break his ankle and be out for the season.Any striker of any team could break their ankle at any time so should I have been seeking exceptional value in the first place on all teams, not just value.?
Yes the more you back the chance one could be a non runner is higher but you can’t tell which one although to me it’s more likely to be Nyaleti on grounds shes not good enough but then exceptional value should be sought anyway not a razor thin edge as a first bet in the race, perhaps…..?
Nathan,
When a rival horse – say a 10/1 shot – comes out of the May 2018 ante-post market in August 2017. Yes, the 10/1 shot – taking the bookies mark up out around 8% of the market – is disolved in to the whole market. But at this far out there are hundreds of rivals and so the non-runner’s chance is spread amongst all runners. Nyaleti’s odds would only shorten very slightly. Where as if Nyaleti or any of the other two selections were to come out I’d lose the whole of that horse’s stake; which in turn reduces or possibly completely obliterates the value of my other ante-post selections.Value Is Everything
and a 
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