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I thought everyone knew September is the Guineas winner?
Oaks winner MOM…Clemmie wins the 1000 gns.
I’m on at the big prices for both
Her winning the oaks would be better but I’m on the double as well
But all these bets are on the wrong horses. Where’s September in all this?
By Deep Impact out of Peeping Fawn
imo Come next year September may well need further than a mile.
In the Chesham, Nyaleti went faster than even fractions early and did well to stay on as well as she did. September won not by speed but by staying on. Slowing down at a lesser rate than the second. I don’t say Nyaleti would’ve beaten September had the rider got the pace right, do think she’d have been closer.September is a good filly, but the way that race shaped up allied to her middle distance breeding strongly suggests to me that she’ll be better at 10f+.
Added to that, September is tiny. Horses of her size are often best as two year olds. That’s probably why she was ready early – is she still the only O’Brien first time out winner?
September might be able to improve a little more at a mile this season. However, horses need to progress physically from two to three just to stand still. ie Needing to “improve” around 7 lbs just to be able to acieve the same rating as a three year old as she did at two… And in all probability will need to improve on her season’s end rating to win a Guineas.
Not that she definitely will not progress, just that there’s a bigger chance than with most two year olds. She might still win the Guineas, but the speed and size questions make her (imo) one to take on at current prices. But @ 25/1 September you’ve got a a good value bet, MOM.
Value Is EverythingI can’t see Nyaleti winning the Guineas for the life of me and certainly 25/1 isn’t enticing me in for an each-way punt; I’d want 40/1.
Agree with M_O_M; September seems very much the horse to beat and I’d rather take 11/2 for her than 25/1 for the horse who finished behind her at Ascot all day long.
It’s like the simplicity of backing the horse who looks like winning has vanished.
September looked green yet still tore nyaletti apart and yet, because nyaletti is still a fancy price, the form is completely ignored with September.
If you then back 3 at 25s, you may as well do the one who’s most likely to win anyway at the same odds.
Perhaps I’m just simple but I tend to bet the horse who I think will win. As long as the price isn’t stupid like 1/3 or something, I’ll back who I think will win.
No need to make it complicated with maths
But all these bets are on the wrong horses. Where’s September in all this?
By Deep Impact out of Peeping Fawn
imo Come next year September may well need further than a mile.
In the Chesham, Nyaleti went faster than even fractions early and did well to stay on as well as she did. September won not by speed but by staying on. Slowing down at a lesser rate than the second. I don’t say Nyaleti would’ve beaten September had the rider got the pace right, do think she’d have been closer.September is a good filly, but the way that race shaped up allied to her middle distance breeding strongly suggests to me that she’ll be better at 10f+.
Added to that, September is tiny. Horses of her size are often best as two year olds.
You are capable of talking sense Ginge….Its only when you start that stupid numbers game you make yourself look daft…Watch Clemmie at Newmarket beating ‘Nyalati’,she was never out of 2nd gear,her ears were twitching and she was crying out for further.’September’ may have beaten ‘Nyalati’ further but ‘Clemmie’ beat her easier and has way more scope than the ‘Deep Impact’ filly.
Ginge is digger a bigger hole here
Non runners this, non runners that
If Nyaleti was value at 25’s you would take it ginge as if your other two were to be ‘non runners’ then you would be holding 25’s still about a horse much shorter due to the non runners.
Instead of saying “I’ve changed my mind I don’t fancy Nyaleti as much as first thought, my mistake” you’ve made up a story up about percentages….
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Ginge is digger a bigger hole here
Non runners this, non runners that
If Nyaleti was value at 25’s you would take it ginge as if your other two were to be ‘non runners’ then you would be holding 25’s still about a horse much shorter due to the non runners.
Instead of saying “I’ve changed my mind I don’t fancy Nyaleti as much as first thought, my mistake” you’ve made up a story up about percentages….You and Gord just don’t understand percentages/markets.
If the other two were non-runners the fact Nyaleti would shorten a bit would in no way make up for the money lost.
Value Is EverythingReally…? I thought you said she was value and the 25’s would soon be gone once Timeform have their say. Take out Alpha and Clemmie and he’d shorten more.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
You and Gord just don’t understand percentages/markets.
Ginge I’m not going to make you look a dick because I like you really but…Percentages mean nothing in the real world of betting on horses..You know yourself your 100% books are only you looking at Oddschecker and tweaking things to suit.Have you ever noticed that you have never made a 25/1 chance a 7/1 chance in your book?Thats what will happen with GM Hopkins on Friday,he opened at 25/1 on the 4th July with Stan James and the King of foresight took it..e/w of course,that in your world would give him a mere 4% chance of winning….
4% my Arse.Come Friday he’ll have a 99% chance of finishing in the first 4 in my world.He’s still available at 16/1 now and thats a 7% chance to you but when he’s 7/1 on the day you will be saying he has a 16% chance and yet the horse hasn’t been seen on a racecourse since July 8th so in the real world his percentage chance of winning has never changed.If he does win those with the biggest Odds are the ones celebrating most not the fact he returns whatever percentage he returns pal.Ginge I’m not going to make you look a dick because I like you really but…Percentages mean nothing in the real world of betting on horses..
Do you look for a horse that you believe to be over-priced or not Gord?
My Higher Powers have found a horse tomorrow @ 25/1 that I believe is a fair 11/1 chance.
Value Is EverythingYou know yourself your 100% books are only you looking at Oddschecker and tweaking things to suit.
You said this years ago and then I proved you wrong by putting up a 100% book for a Taunton race hours before oddschecer, betfair, any bookmaker or betting forecast had prices up.
But you’re right in one way. These days I do check my figures using oddschecker and if something is out of line I’ll look at the horse again and decide whether I’ve made a mistake. Sometimes I will have missed something, other times I haven’t. It’s not cheating. :lol:
I’ll use anything that helps me to come to the correct assessment of odds.
Sometimes the value bet/s shout at me and there is no reason to make a 100% book. Sometimes I’ll take the obvious bet and then do a book to find others – as today.
But I might remind you, there is no point in coming to the same conclusion as bookmakers – otherwise I’d have NO bets! Whole point is to find where odds are bigger than what I believe to be their fair chance.
Value Is EverythingGinge I’m not going to make you look a dick because I like you really but…Percentages mean nothing in the real world of betting on horses..
Do you look for a horse that you believe to be over-priced or not Gord?
My Higher Powers have found a horse tomorrow @ 25/1 that I believe is a fair 11/1 chance.
How on earth can you say any horse is a fair 11/1 chance you muppet?…That horse could go off 16/1 or 8/1 and neither price has any bearing on how it will run..A 100/1 horse can still win a 10 runner race just like a 1/10 shot gets beat in a 2 horse race.Percentages mean jack sh*t in horseracing terms..If 5 people sitting round a table play pass the parcel they have a 20% chance of winning,fact.If they play it 5 times they still have the same chance of winning irrelevant of the fact one guy has won it 4 times on the trot.Percentages only work in relative terms,they mean nothing in real terms regarding horseracing otherwise you wouldnt get winners SP’s ranging from 1/10 to 100/1 and thats why I love trying to get the biggest odds available and watching my horse return an SP way shorter..You may have a ‘Higher Power’ pal but you cant play my Stradivarius.
I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Nyaleti @ 25/1.
if Nyaleti was truly exceptional value (say 50/1) I’d back it
Oh dear Ginge,
you’ve sent your followers out to sea with a float only half the size as one you’d take yourself and you have Clemmie and Alpha as armbands. Hope your followers are strong swimmers it’s a long time till May 2018.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Ginge I’m not going to make you look a dick because I like you really but…Percentages mean nothing in the real world of betting on horses..
Do you look for a horse that you believe to be over-priced or not Gord?
My Higher Powers have found a horse tomorrow @ 25/1 that I believe is a fair 11/1 chance.
How on earth can you say any horse is a fair 11/1 chance you muppet?…That horse could go off 16/1 or 8/1 and neither price has any bearing on how it will run..A 100/1 horse can still win a 10 runner race just like a 1/10 shot gets beat in a 2 horse race.Percentages mean jack sh*t in horseracing terms..If 5 people sitting round a table play pass the parcel they have a 20% chance of winning,fact.If they play it 5 times they still have the same chance of winning irrelevant of the fact one guy has won it 4 times on the trot.Percentages only work in relative terms,they mean nothing in real terms regarding horseracing otherwise you wouldnt get winners SP’s ranging from 1/10 to 100/1 and thats why I love trying to get the biggest odds available and watching my horse return an SP way shorter..You may have a ‘Higher Power’ pal but you cant play my Stradivarius.
Oh Gord blimey,
If “percentages mean jack sh*t” then why don’t bookmakers just offer the same price for every runner?
Why do you think bookmakers employ odds compilers?An odds compiler works out what he believes the percentage chance of every horse is to a 100% book. The bookmaker then adds a small mark up to all runners and offers those prices.
eg In a competitive market: If an odds compiler believes a horse has a 20% (fair 4/1) chance of winning, the bookmaker will add a mark up and offers 7/2 (22%) to punters.
Of course that does not mean the horse definitely has a 20% chance. It is just the odds compiler’s opinion. Just as what the punter’s idea of the horse’s chance is only an opinion. So the 7/2 offered by the bookmaker may still be considered value. It is up to the individual punter to come to their own opinion about the horse, if a punter believes it has a better than 22% chance of winning he/she should back it. (Actually, I’d advise a margin for error, if in my opinion a horse has a 23% (fair 100/30) I would not normally back it @ 7/2, but would @ 4/1 or bigger).Of course you can “get winners SP’s ranging from 1/10 to 100/1”, Gord; that’s the whole point.
(Actually it’s much wider than that). A 1/10 is only a good bet if the punter believes it has a better than a 91% (+ the punter’s margin for error). A 100/1 shot is only a good bet if the punter believes it has a better than 1% (+ mfe). The reason why I backed Aurora’s Encore in the Grand National and Arabian Queen in the International at York – both at bigger than 100/1 (latter nearer 200/1) – was not that I thought they’d win or even that they had a reasonable chance. It was that I thought their chance was greater than 1%; ie I believed they both had only around a 3% chance (therefore in my opinion “value”). The result is never known before the race. The whole point is to come to an assessment before the race of each runner and back the horse/s which are in the punter’s opinion is/are under-estimated by the market.It is form that “has any bearing on how it will run“, not price. However, my assessment of form allows me to come to an opinion of the horse’s fair chance. With any individual horse/race I may or may not be correct in my assessments, but my record over the years tells me am correct a lot of the time, otherwise I would not have made a good profit.
Value Is EverythingI wouldn’t put anyone off backing Nyaleti @ 25/1.
if Nyaleti was truly exceptional value (say 50/1) I’d back it
Oh dear Ginge,
you’ve sent your followers out to sea with a float only half the size as one you’d take yourself and you have Clemmie and Alpha as armbands. Hope your followers are strong swimmers it’s a long time till May 2018.My stalker is back.
You love taking sentences out of context.
I’ll have one last go.In my opinion Nyaleti has around a 6% (fair 16/1) chance of winning the 1000 Guineas. Therefore, I wouldn’t put anyone off Nyaleti @ 25/1 if they wanted to back it.
I myself would be backing Nyaleti @ 25/1 if I didn’t make two others even better value; Clemmie @ 8/1 and Alpha @ 20/1.
If I didn’t make those other two better value (already backed) then I’d be backing Nyaleti @ 25/1, because the latter is individually imo “value”. However, as I’ve said – because of the risk of non-runners destroying my ante-post value – I would need to believe Nyaleti to be “exceptional value” for me to have a third Guineas bet at this stage. ie @ 50/1 it would imo be worth the added risk of non-runners.
Hope you can understand now, Nathan.
Value Is EverythingNot read all of this but, percentages are the root of everything to do with betting, everything is factored in on a percentage, if you compile and find something thats to big of a price wether ends up going off shorter or longer odds than you taken it for youv found the value you in that market, thats how some people base all their betting, some people on “scope” which none of us truely know anything about clemmie for example DOES NOT have more scope than september that is nonsense and she did not beat nyaletti “easier” the truth of the matter is none of us know what scope for improvement the horse has unless were in the yard daily
Dont get why gingers being blasted for making quite reasonable sense
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