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On a lesser level [got W Hill radio on while I’m spring cleaning] I nearly missed a Timmy Murphy steamer on the flat; thankfully spotted it at the last minute. Worth keeping an eye on those.
You’re just like myself moe, and like a price. 25’s is nice, well done, and I’ll definitely pay attention to him a bit more now, especially at those kind of odds.
Is he still getting plenty of rides?
Love The Pertemps, and I actually thought (from memory mind you) that Percy ran alright, I’d have to go back and look. I do know that I was keen on Woodford Island after that race for The Pertemps, but he’s just too low in the weights at the moment.
Jury Duty is a definite non qualifier at the moment.
I’ll wait till final decs for The Arkle before I place a bet on The Grand Annual, though appreciate that I’ll take a hit on the odds. Totally agree with you though, and I think the race will suit him down to a tee.
Not that many; seems to do really well at Kempton [2 tomorrow but look like no hopers]. Am definately going to keep an eye on he and Graham Lees bumper rides at the Festival if they get them.
Timmy lets me down today but, while looking at the race backed Magic Mirror at 50/1 because it was blue on oddschecker. Annoyingly missed listening to the race as I was on mumsnet at the time. Probably a good thing as b/p would have gone through the roof….biggest win I’ve had for months [probably years]…
Outstanding Moe, can’t argue with 50’s………….and hope you had a wee glass or two to celebrate
Not with a 2 pence ew stake! I suppose that, in a way it was all thanks to Timmy….paid for todays bets, anyway.
Looks as if it might be a very bleak Saturday.
Had a look at Sunday’s big handicap. Can’t believe how people seem intent on ignoring ground conditions for Heartbreak City. Hardly any soft ground form and we are talking an Irish Horse. Clearly they avoid it if they can. On that basis alone he looks a shocking price. I flagged up Ice Cold Soul a while ago and this time without the handicap of Sean Flanagan he could well take a nice step forward – 25/1 would have been good but hoping to bag 20/1 and an extra place.
Backed Waiting Patiently at Haydock. Interesting race. Liked a few at Ascot but probably not worth getting involved.
That was very good news about Pricewise. Wish I had seen the paper. Obviously, I can bang on about the horse but the impact is likely to be somewhere between minimal and zero. If he come up trumps it wouldn’t be my biggest winner but it would be the most satisfying one.
Yeah, a real shame about Ascot, it sounds as good as off, but all is not lost, and a few catch the eye at Haydock.
That Novice Chase is a cracker, and as well as Politologue, we have Waiting Patiently & Its’afreebee in there, really looking forward to this one. I won’t have an interest on the day, but really excited what I’ve seen from Waiting Patiently, and have taken a chance on him for The Arkle. Its’afreebee got me a good few quid back in The Neptune, and bar that poor run at Cheltenham behind 0 0 Seven, I’ve been quite impressed by him, and he’s another I’m looking at for Cheltenham. Bet him for both The RSA & JLT, but I’d very much favour The JLT for him.
In the other races I’ve went for Sausalito Sunrise in The Peter Marsh, and seriously considering Gevrey Chambertin at the 50’s ew. I’m a big fan of Otago Trail, and have at big odds for Aintree, so I’ll leave him alone here, as I have him covered, and just a bit concerned with his last run, but he’ll make the trifecta for sure.
Clyne in the big hurdle looks overpriced, while Aintree My Dream & Cultram Abbey catch they eye in the finale.
Good luck with Ice Cold Soul, and he looks a very fair price. Interesting your comment about Flanagan. I wouldn’t be too aware of too many shockers, but I have noticed (and I don’t have any stats to back this up), that there seems to be a fair few horses from the Meade yard recently, the last couple of seasons, who just can’t jump. I was just wondering if Flanagan had floored a couple of yours. Cue a run of big race wins from the yard haha!
I’ve went for Allblak Des Places & De Name Escapes Me, both ew 25’s in The Hurdle, and I’m adding Light That at the 50’s ew with 6 places. I kind of agree with Heartbreak City, he is a shocker of a price, but he remains a very interesting character to me, though still slightly hacked off that he didn’t get a Champion Hurdle entry.
In The Chase, I’m on Stellar Notion to win at 10’s, and following the absence of Dromnea, I’ll replace him with Kylecrue ew at 20’s.
Yeah, very encouraging about Empire of Dirt, and I’m still fairly confident he’ll go Ryanair or Gold Cup, even with that Aintree aim, and yes, I think I’d be very satisfied if he landed either prize.
I think Noel Meade comes across as a very likeable character (hence I put him up on the ‘trainer of the year’ poll) and I suspect is very loyal to his jockeys. Let’s face it Carberry was never the most consistent, ranging between infuriating and brilliant. Sadly, too much of the former in my opinion. Unfortunately, I think Flanagan is very much second division material and is lucky to have landed the job.
Will be keeping an eye on Sizing At Midnight at Navan. As we predicted he has dropped in trip but that benefit might be negated by the stiff track. It would be nice to see a better jumping round with the jock providing more assistance than last time. I would be surprised if he threatened the places.
Oh yeah, you get a feel for someone on the screen, and Meade comes across as a very decent guy, and I’ve certainly no beef with him. Probably nothing, but every time I have one of his, I’m half expecting a faller. As for Carberry, used to be a jockey to follow for me, but before his retirement, he had regressed quite badly in recent years. Rather annoyingly, when he got the odd winner in a big race, there would the be the usual “over the top” praise for him, from people who should know better. They would conveniently decline to mention, that those same exaggerated waiting tactics had failed miserably countless times before. I lost count the number of horror rides he gave. I tried to say last year that I was over his ride on Cause of Causes in The 2015 National, but in all honesty, it still riles me. Nothing personal though ( I have to say that, as very rarely I’m too critical of jocks, and I do go on about him whenever he’s mentioned) and I hope he does well in his new pursuits.
A lot of my “Midnight” horses are only 10p ew jobs, so that I can record an accurate return to a 1pt ew stake, but at the odds, I’ll be having a few quid on Sizing at Midnight with that step down in trip.
That was very good from Waiting Patiently. Question is if he needs soft ground where does he go now? Rather like the trainer I would sooner see him over shorter than longer. He is very quick at his fences.
That’s Nicholls’ two supposed big guns in the novice department turned over.
Very happy with him, and well done with the 4’s. Although they looked all out at the end, I thought he was impressive enough, and he can only keep improving. I’m happy with the price I have for him in The Arkle, and although he’ll probably be just short of what’s required there, he’s probably my main hope now, as I’d tend to agree with yourself, and expect Ordinary World to go Grand Annual.
Three bookmakers have priced up the Irish Gold Cup. Disappointingly, Empire Of Dirt is almost favourite. I have absolutely no idea why Don Poli is heading the market. Presumably, this has been priced up as if several might not turn up, either that or the odds for the Cheltenham Gold Cup are completely wrong. Empire Of Dirt is priced up shorter than the likes of Djakadam and Outlander. Taken at face value he should be about 6/1 for the Gold Cup, not 40/1.
Sizing At Midnight ran pretty much as I predicted. Much better than the finishing position but again he didn’t see his race out. Maybe he has a breathing issue but the way forward is surely to try him over an easier 2m4f.
Still struggling to get that extra place tomorrow. It seems bookmakers are being very reluctant, in fact nobody appears to be offering an extra concession in the chase. I will be keeping an eye on Vukovar in that race but very likely no bet.
Spot on, those markets read together, just don’t make any sense. The only thing I can think of is, as you say, is that many aren’t expected to trap. I think he’s way overpriced for The Gold Cup (and Ryanair), and the market here is more realistic with regards to his chances.
I bet Sizing at Midnight, and managed to lay off in running, but not for as low as I wanted. The way he’s blew up in both runs so far is indeed a worry, but he’s surely a winner in waiting.
Yeah, amazed about the lack of extra places for The Chase, especially as you can get 6 places in The Hurdle. Vukovar is an interesting runner, but I’m going to stick with Stellar Notion & Kylecrue. Good luck with Vukovar if you change your mind.
The ground is much better than I expected. Had a couple of knockbacks before it has even started. I had backed Gangster each-way because I thought he was much more likely to finish second than Anibale Fly. Now they have taken that one out. I ended up backing Ice Cold Soul at 16/1 without the favourite but unfortunately Flanagan is now on board. The drying ground has probably done for him in any case. Used a free bet from yesterday to back Heartbreak City at 5/2. I suspect the ground is almost certainly too quick for Vukovar and Stellar Notion the one to beat. Don’t expect them to be better than fifth or sixth but Kristian Goingwel and Political Theatre two to watch for the future in the second race.
Good luck with yours.
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