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There’s been a market up for this for some time, but I reckon it’s full of a few unlikely ones, and a lot of them can be written off……
That’s not the case with the front three in the market,
Santini
Topofthegame
LostintranslationI think this trio will dominate the chat in the lead up, and I can honestly see the three of them heading here.
I can easily see the other two going close in this, particularly Topofthegame, but I’d much prefer to be with Lostintranslation. Like the other pair, high enough in the weights, but he’s going the right way, this looks the plan, and if the same horse turn up here, who turned up at Aintree, then he’s a massive player.
This isn’t a race where I focus as much on potential Irish Raiders, but at 33-1, and as high in the weights as the market principals, is Cadmium. Sensational in The Topham, and with Willie Mullins a big fan of this race, then I think the 33’s is extremely tempting. That Topham run was very good. Shortlist for me.
Another potential Irish Raider could be Borice. As much as I’m wary of following Galway Plate winners, his profile looks different, and a big season looks assured. I wouldn’t be as confident of him coming here, as I would Cadmium, but he’s one to keep tabs on.
If Borice doesn’t trap, then the owners, Munir and Souede, could call on another impressive Aintree winner in Kildisart. He’s another who’s shot up the weights, but he’s earned it. A darker one might be their Terrefort. He had a brutal 18/19 Season, but with a couple of pounds shaved off, not the biggest shock if Henderson got him back, for all that Santini would surely be the yards #1.
Tizzard and Nicholls, Like Henderson, have obviously other horses to turn to as well. Elegant Escape ran well enough in this last year, before his season fizzled out a bit. He’d be a few pounds higher this time around, and he’s got to bounce back, and for all that Aintree has been mentioned, should he really be 33-1 here, considering how Tizzard targets it. It goes without saying that it would be great to see Sizing Tennessee turn up to defend his trophy.
The Nicholls horse who interests me is Give Me A Copper. Flattered to deceive a little last year, but that was off of a long layoff, and Nicholls could have a nice prospect here off of 142. Very interesting.
I do like the JP trio, Ok Corral, No Comment, and Jerrysback, but this is a race that JP has never seemed to focus on, but I’d look at them if they got an entry.
One at a silly (but probably justified) price is One For Arthur. To run the race he did at Aintree, after a prolonged absence was impressive, and they might fancy striking early with him this year. Unlikely I know, he’d need plenty to go right even if he did turn up here, but I thought he was worth a mention. Others I thought worth an early mention were the likes of Drovers Lane and Vintage Clouds, as well as the rejuvenated. The Young Master. That’s probably more than enough for now.
I’ll probably bet Lostintranslation for The Newbury/Cheltenham double, but he’s a nice looking price here on his own, so although no money down, this is the early shortlist……
Cadmium 33’s
Give Me A Copper 33’s
Lostintranslation 14’sI agree that this could be a big battle between the market leaders, but did have a quiet fancy for another Nicky Henderson horse, Gold Present.
He’s not in the list at the moment, but I would be interested if he got an entry, and I think he might be a big price.
Nicholls is aiming Topofthegame at the Gold Cup and is looking at this race to start his 2019/20 season off. Lostintranslation on the other hand has multiple entries at Cheltenham including Champion Chase as well as Gold Cup. Think they’re experimenting with the trip. Think they’re love him to get Gold Cup trip and so trying this first.
At the moment it’s no bet though from me
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Lemons, Forgot about Gold Present, interesting shout. Looked good before tipping up at Ayr, and then ran well at Sandown, so certainly entitled to go.
Lostintranslation isnt a Champion Chase horse. He improved for the step up to the 3 miles. Worst case scenario would be the Ryanair.
I wonder whether Tizzard might save Lostintranslation for the King George as Native River and EE aren’t really suited to it, and Thistlecrack is on the wane. Not sure if he would put the pressure of the Ladbrokes trip/field on a JlT-RSA type in its first open season. It’s “safer” to put an RSA-NH chase type in this so the one of his I’m interested in here is Mister Malarky. Same age as Native River and EE when they ran in this, jumps, stays, unfazed by handicap fields, has course form…albeit handicap form, rather than the G2 novice chase that they won. That race- the Worcester- was won by Santini last year.
That’s the only obvious drawback with MM for this. He’s less classy than TOTG, Santini and LiT. As things stand he’d get 10-14lb from them here though. 25-1 is a good EW bet.
Grass, he was the last one I left out of the opening post, but he was floating about my head.
He’ll surely go here, so nothing wrong with the 25’s at all.
Agree Mister Malarkey is interesting at this stage and would be competitively handicapped from his rating.
Im hoping that Elegant Escape is given a quiet campaign this time and turns up in the gold cup fresher so I will be happy for him to avoid this test.
I think its quite possible they will give EE a similar campaign to the one they gave Native River in his gold cup year.
With the last 2 winners of the gold cup having had just one run before winning the gold cup we may now enter a period where it becomes fashionable to enter the race having had a very quiet season and avoiding the traditional routes to gold.I know that EE can do it and maybe this is the key to unlock the greatness that i have no doubt whatsoever that he posesses.
The only downside to a quiet campaign is that i would have to be more quiet about him and would have less oppprtunities to tell the world how great he really is. Though its rumoured some may consider that a good thing.
I was just thinking about this race today and musing on what a training feat it would be if Nicholls could get the big beast TOTG tuned up to win it and then keep him ticking over, tune him up again and deliver him sound in wind, heart, pelvis and limb to win the gold cup. Pity he didn’t get a run at it.
One horse not in the betting (yet) is Burrows Saint. I think he will go here. Ruby got off after the Irish GN and said “hurdles then Aintree” – and he could do that as his Grand Steep run qualifies as this season’s chase start- but it seems a crazy waste of a prime season in the life of a good young chaser, considering the risk of a stone bruise on the eve of it or BD 1st fence or even just not liking it. Rathvinden and Pairofbrowneyes can spruce up their Aintree style jumping all winter instead.
Mullins Jr and Ricci have both said they are going to see if he has what it takes for graded company (the gold cup, bluntly) , and if not then revert to Aintree as plan b. It makes sense to test him properly early on to define the path rather than gently tit about till February with small field G3s and 2s for small money.
The JNwine (or whatever it is) is the first Grade 1 but Mullins hasn’t tended to send his good chasers here in recent times. Meade and Elliot do so I suspect Delta Work, Road to Respect and possibly Tout est Permis will start here. The first 2 are rated mid 160s so Burrows at 156 might as well get half a stone off this type at Newbury as meet them at levels to start his season. He jumps slightly right at times so Down Royal could suit but it’s the bare 3 miles on a flat track with a small field. 3m2f with a good gallop likely suit better.
The John Durkan is even more short of his best trip and there are other Closutton bullets to fire at that.
WPM likes to send a good one to try for the Ladbrokes pot; last year Kemboy and Invitation Only were all set to go before their ferry was cancelled.
What else has he got?
There are 3 of his in the betting so far.
Livelovelaugh (not good enough)
Kemboy (no point making little horse drag topweight around when he could target Leopardstown as scene of last year’s triumph)
Cadmium- ?doesn’t stay?Invitation Only, Up For Review, Ballyward, Isleofhopendreams and C’est Jersey sadly no longer with us.
Pairofbrowneyes…maybe…Grand National tilt more likely though (btw why did he get put up 1lb for falling at the 4th in Irish National? Inconsequential like, but weird. Had the weights come out before his Naas victory and his actual weight carried included his “handicapper sees fit” penalty?)
Some Neck not good enough, doesn’t jump well enough.
Total Recall only 4lb higher than his victory here, and jumps a bit left so this would suit better than Fairyhouse did, but is 2 years older…something will have improved past him.
Acapella Bourgeois- if he feels like it, the weirdo.
Yorkhill- see above with bells on. Teddies exited the pram halfway through the Kerry National. Either that or he got scared, or hurt himself. Anyway, not good.
Footpad- still too high in the weights post Arkle, bled in the Ryanair so probably best not given a hard time, generally had unpleasant experiences last year so probably does need to gently tit about with small field G2+3s to start.Burrows Saint jumps, travels, stays, and copes with a big field (in fact the more cover the better possibly). He’s not criminally well handicapped but being only 6yo with 5 chase runs under his belt (not counting his French chase starts at 3.5 years old- I assume these juvenile chases are like our 4yo PTPs, only with the aim of placing or simply catching English or Irish eyes and being sold as a still-novice chaser rather than winning) ought to have a solid chunk of improvement in him. If he has pretensions of being a gold cup horse he ought to be winning this or going close off 156. If he doesn’t manage that then not much harm done to his mark, regroup and practice spruce jumping.
TL;DR the Closutton fangirl borefest- *Burrows Saint* is going to run in the Ladbrokes and win it, I reckon.
Oh my that was a longwinded borefest. Sorry. Oh well at least it’ll send any insomniacs among you to sleep. Night night zzzz
Good stuff Grass.
You know my thoughts on Burrows, and I’ll be watching closely.
You’re spot on having a long look at WPM, as he really does like this race.
I could either way with him or Cadmium, and with Lostintranslation, and now Topofthegame not going here, I’m adding Burrows to the shortlist. It’ll probably be him or Cadmium for the Newbury/Cheltenham double.
With TOTG out, I’ve a feeling that Give Me A Copper might get more attention as the yards #1 for this, and I might chip away now at the 33’s.
Have backed Vinndication @ 33/1 EW. NAP
A potential improving second season novice, and a mark of 151 is workable. He has the back form and engine to go close in this. He just needs to brush up on his jumping, and even a change of jockey might also benefit him. I hope Kim Bailey sacks off Bass and uses Sean Bowen. His ride when he beat Champ giving him weight was his best performance and best ride.
Good luck all
I’d back another one if I was you atthepost. That horse is a right handed track bully.
Mister Malarky is looking very popular on here, + he would be my idea of a big player at this stage.
A quick look through the trends shows nothing stark other than market position (not much help antepost). 19 of the last 22 winners have been in the first 7 in the betting. 18 of them were between 9/4 and 12/1.
At two apiece, Henderson and Tizzard have won 4 of the last 7 runnings
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