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This is turning into terrific looking race, not just because of the calibre of horse,
but also as a betting perspective. There looks to be a terrific punt going on with
Dingo Dollar, good luck to the good few that have got in early, VTC and Nausered
look to be on a killing if that one rolls in. I’ve hunted everywhere to see if I
can see a negative quote from Willie Mullins on Total Recall, have I missed
something? because there is not one mention of him in this thread. It’s not too
difficult making a case for him, for one, he was the winner in this last year
and held his form, albeit over hurdles, next time out with a cosy win in a decent
handicap at Leopardstown. More importantly he ran a very respectable race next time
out in the Gold Cup. He wasn’t at the end of his tether when in coming down 3 out when
in 5th place. Unlikely he would have caught the front pair, but he may well have
been in the shake up for 3rd at least. Forget his National run where he went off
favourite, he didn’t take to it too well and made too many mistakes to get involved
at the sharp end and was rightly pulled up with 4 to go. Equally you can forget his
run in the Punchestown Gold Cup, it was just a race too far at the end of a hard season.
He has been off for 220 days, but his last 3 wins have all come after decent breaks, so
he clearly goes well fresh. There is the fact that he’s 9lbs higher than last year,
but he likes it here and Thomas Patrick is the only other C/D winner in the field.
I wish I was a fly on the wall in the Mullins camp, I don’t know if he will run him,
but if he does he won’t be anywhere near the 20/1 he is now. I’m going to be sitting
with my finger poised over the bet button, and at the slightest sign of market encouragement
I’ll have him. I’d be really interested if anyone has heard any rumblings, although trying
to second guess Mullins is like playing snap with crocodiles.I’d also be very interested if I thought Otago Trail would turn up. At
33/1 he would be worth a punt, but they like a bet at that stable and there is no
encouragement in the market at this time. I’m not confident enough to make a move
on him, so at this time it’s a watching brief all round for me.He may have said Kemboy is the one but I dunno- he may have the class required but he’s not overly big, not like Denman, and it takes a bit of doing to lug a big weight to victory. Mind you Native River isn’t massive either, and Whisper nearly did it too and he’s small.
Very much agree on this Kemboy isn’t a big horse, he’s a typical French import. Though he has carried big weights and won ok before, but not vs this class.
As i rambled about earlier in thread, i think he’s more suited to 2 1/2 miles at this stage and let race prominent. However, i suppose Mullins sticking him in the Irish National on a bog suggests he thinks he’ll stay ok.
@Ham- i’d agree i think Al Boum Photo is very good indeed, only worry is his jumping which can let him down at times + especially in a race like this (can do with Kemboy as well)
I’d like to see Isleofhopesanddreams come over but i haven’t a clue if he will. Good handicap form and sure to appreciate the trip + further compared to the questionable other Mullin’s horses mentioned above.
My wonderful Norwegian weather app suggests Newbury will get around 22mm of rain between today and Thursday and remain quite dry from then.
Question; what sort of ground is that likely to produce- i haven’t a clue!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Bit late to the party but Elegant Escape for me. Reminds me of Native River and I wouldn’t put it past the horse going on to run very well in the Welsh National after this! Looks like the type who will stay all day. I’ve got in a double with at Might Bite for the KG placed in September but did top up with a small token bet last weekend at 6/1.
I’m now very tempted to have a play at American at 16/1 mainly due to forecast rain. Cant get away from the Uttoxeter race in which he slammed Rock the Kasbah by 8L giving away 6lb’s. Only worry is his run in the race last year was awful although seem to recall the trainer did blame himself for running the horse in the race as he didn’t believe he was quite ready for it.
Rain today Jack, rain tomorrow, rain Thursday… No rain Friday, more rain Saturday morning. I get what are normally pretty accurate forecasts, my work sort of depends on it a bit in a small way. That’s the forecasts I have for the local area… I’m just up the road often from Newbury, three days a week.
This time of year, the air is misty/foggy, and the ground once wet, barely dries. I know the ground is pretty good right now, but by Saturday, I’m not so sure.
My bet if I had too have one, it will be soft ground by Saturday mate, my garden lawn is retaining plenty of moisture in it right now, and the rain has not arrived yet. Four gloomy rainy days out of five, between now and Saturdays off time. It’s not going to be good ground, that’s for sure.
Need to go back 6 years to subsequent gold cup winner Bobs Worth for the last time a horse took this without a prep run. Puts me off backing a few. I’ll wait to see how much rain gets in before backing either Dingo Dollar or Thomas Patrick on the day.
Thanks BigG
.I was so all over him for the Ultima last March, I posted it on here. He never showed, which was a real blessing. He won a novice handicap over the fences at Newbury by 15l, despite the saddle slipping, and him not jumping a couple well. When he did jump them, he was fantastic, a real zest for the fences. I think the Ladbroke trophy was most likely the target after that race for King, which is why he did not show in the Ultima. He went up 13lb for that Newbury performance on soft ground. Mopped up a novice on G-S, then jumped like an absolute stag all the way around at Ayr, but the good ground was just not for him over 3m. He went up 5lb, but still recorded his best ever RPR on that ground with his great jumping. 148 was a perfect mark for this. I had a lot of money on Smad Place first time he ran in the Hennessy. No prep cost him big time. King learnt from that mistake the following year. They kept Dingo to a 3m Newbury handicap hurdle on come back… Pipe opener, and mark protector.
King has played an absolute blinder with this horse. He’s a good un I think, and Dingo has a lot in hand off this mark I’d say.
Hutchinson is now jocked up on the RP website, and it’s absolutely raining cats and dogs now in London, I’m sure in Berkshire too. Me & VTC both have a tidy sum on him at 25-1. Mine is all too win. Now it’s just all fingers crossed mate. Good luck with yours G.
King pulled him from the Ultima because of the rain that fell before the festival. King thinks he prefers GS/Soft kind of ground, that’s why he took him up to Ayr as it’s normally decent weather.
Good luck with him either way, just thought i’d warn you to be wary of excessive rain dances
Can be costly to read too much into these things, but Noel Fehily is jocked up at Newcastle for American.
He’ll be there for Summerville Boy anyway, so maybe a factor for connections when considering their target.
If he was mine he’d go to Newbury. I always thought 33’s was too big for this, and if the forecast is correct, then I think the 16’s is still big too.
He’s blue for both races on Oddschecker, more so for Newbury.
Thanks Kev, I saw that at the time mate, as I’ve watched every word written about this horse and I had a lot of money on him. I did not believe what King said at the time, as it did not make any sense, and I don’t now. If we look at the evidence, and not what King said… They know he acts at flat Newbury I think mate, that’s more why he missed the Ultima at Cheltenham. I’d say it was also because the ground was not soft enough myself, and this race was always on their minds, probably for a punt too. King loves the Ultima, I was sure he would run there, the moment he did not, it was always going too be this race. Looking at his hurdle run prep when the ground was good, and that he’s also been saved for this race, a traditional soft ground race, we both know. Then there’s his form. That race where he shot up 13lb, for a 15L demolition job at Newbury, is the only time he has ran on soft ground.
I recon Mr King is telling a few porkies somewhere. Good on him, it’s one of the biggest handicaps of the entire year. I think this has been the plan for Dingo, for a year, since December 2017, and Mr King is a bit slippery. But anyway, I’m doing a rain dance mate, whatever he says. I still remember watching the Newbury race on soft ground. I did not back him at Ayr, ground was no good and I’m finished with NH by then. They probably went there to nudge up a few pounds, make sure he was a certainty for this and give him some more practice. Targeting a horse at a soft ground race, who’s best visual performance, was the only time he faced ground described as soft…Then you have, he’s been beaten every time, hurdles and fences, that the grounds been good. And then saying the total opposite regards Cheltenham regarding the ground. Mmmmmm, sounds fishy to me. After Newbury, Dec 2017’s race, I would take anything Mr King said about this horse with a pinch of salt. I bet he spoke to the owners after the race, and right there and then, Hennessy 2018 was the plan. Oh one last one that contradicts him again, he’s entered in the Welsh National too, must of been praying for some G or G/S there too. Naughty old Mr King and his ‘up the garden path’ comments is my take on that mate. Probably trying to get a better price for his owners. Looking at the markets, I’d say they got a lot of cash down NRNB yesterday at midday, someone did. I hope they had a fortune on ante post too. That was the moment that the bookies all livened up yesterday though.(Coincidently, with lots of rain forecast too).
What’s the betting, if he wins, there will be an ecstatic group of owners on live TV, pronouncing King is a genius, and this has been the plan for a year?
I hope that is what happens Kev. GS, or soft, I’ll be happy. I’ll be happier with soft though.
And Dingo is now 10-1 across the board, every firm still offering 11’s or 12’s has trimmed him. Could he even challenge for favourite/JF come Sat?
There’s a lot of rain about again today, and it really came down yesterday when it did rain. The river Thames is up over night. The ground will be soft I’d say.
Nuase, Kealy put him up in Weekender- PS, King also said he didnt wanted the ground to be to soft for him and that he questioned whether he’s classy enough but that its been the plan for some time!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Thanks mate, that really explains a lot then, the money for him since the weekend. I don’t read the Racing Post or the Weekender anymore, so I’ve not seen it. I much prefer too have my own clear mind on things, and not be influenced by any outside sources to much, it just works for me. I can afford a RP gold membership, I use the free version for the above reasons.
Regarding King, he’s a long time pessimist Jack, who will always tend to underplay his horses chances. I remember him saying loads of ‘random’ stuff about Bensalem in the old William Hill handicap in the build up too the race (Ultima). I’d had my biggest ever bet at the time on at a great price, so was worried. Horse got very well backed, and won well. He has history for it, and has done it since plenty.
Dingo Dollar might not be good enough Saturday, it’s the biggest test he’s faced by a long chalk. But when you keep a nice horse, away from any other nice horses to protect a mark, that’s going to be the case. He’s massively unexposed.
I think he’ll end up a very nice horse, he may not. King is still a known pessimist though…
This looks the race of the weekend. I’m hoping that Thomas Patrick can give a good account for himself as I’ve backed him already for the National at the end of the season and this is usually a good race for that race.
Also I hoping for Black Corton to do better than his opening race.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Good luck Nausered, i’ll be cheering on Dingo for you if mine aren’t in the finish that’s for sure!
Don’t think this years renewal is as good as previous at the top end of the market for say Grade 1 races, but it certainly has plenty of grade 2-3 hosses in with a shout. Will be very interesting to see what Willie & Gordon take over.
I bet American at 33s but have cashed out as target is up in he air. Maybe will back him again if he’s declared.
I have backed invitation only EW at 33s and even took some 50s before the 5 days decs with bet365. Invitation only might not run but if he does I will back him again as think is has a massive chance off 152.
Can’t wait for the decs
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