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Have just backed two for this American and label des obeaux both EW at 33s.
The other one I really fancy if he turns up is invitation only, but will hold off until he’s declared or hear any mention he’s going for the race.
I did wonder where it had gone VTC, I thought I must not have pressed ‘submit’ lol. Yes mate, he’s now 5th in the betting, and halved in price nigh on. I’m very happy, I have a big fat wad of cash on him at 25’s (as do you)… Now we just need too see the gamble gather strength, and him to dot up Dec 1st
Fingers crossed Naus, and I think he can really go close, in fact I’ll be gutted if I don’t get a run from him.
Happy with my other pair too, but Dingo would be smashing.
Thomas Patrick 10s and Dingo Dollar 16s are my 2 at present. Keeping an eye on the weather.
They’re saying up to 75mm of rain cumulative before Saturday but it’s possible that Newbury only gets 30-50.
That’s not enough for Thomas Patrick, in my opinion, as it’s aleady G/S, G in places and 30-50mm just helps retain some moisture in the ground.
VTC, I noticed today, that he’s also entered in the Welsh National over Xmas. Twenty six days after the Ladbroke. They must think he’s going to stay incredibly well at this stage. I obviously (as I can’t stop going on about him since last March) think he’s a top class staying chaser in the making, and could easily have ten too fifteen pounds or more in hand still, off of 148.
We need a drop of rain mate, and it’s forecast. I also found out yesterday that I had an extra £95 running on him, from a Ladbrokes account, which I had overlooked when I added up my totals running on too him (touch). Lets hope he makes it through this week trouble free.
Christmas will come early in this house if Dingo wins on Saturday
Oh yeah, he didn’t go unnoticed for Chepstow either, but going to dig my heels in for that race just now, and not have an Antepost. As per though, that could easily change lol.
Really hopeful of a big run from him, he’s my biggest bet of the jumps so far, so it’ll be a very Merry Christmas here too if he can do it.
Well, here we go VTC… The early gamble I so wanted too see has probably started. I got some more money on at 16’s this morning, I thought what the hell it’s been an amazing few weeks. Tried too get more on, I was being restricted on every account as I was trying to get money on after 12pm. Around this time, The Ladbrokes Trophy disappeared from nigh on all of their online lists for a while. When it came back up, he’s the big mover, he’s now 10-1 with 365, PaddyPower, Boylesports & VC. I know they went NRNB today, but they also saw good money for him today for sure. 25’s still last week, 16’s this morning before 12pm. They fancy him a little bit I’d say.
His price is shortening elsewhere as I type this.
Now shortened at Ladbrokes and Sky. Someone I know just tried to put £40 on him at William Hills 14’s. They restricted it too £12 he said, he’s never had a bet restricted in his life.
Running scared VTC
The Young Master is 7lbs well in after his recent Cheltenham win and his Chepstow race has worked out very well. Bottom weight and an extra 3lbs off for his jockey. Can’t resist topping up on him.
Black Corton and American will probably be my other bets in a race full of old (and new) favourites. Otago Trail might get a small nod too at a big price.
I might rue the day I abandon Rathvinden and Ms Parfois, but I’ve got to draw the line somewhere!
I’ve backed American at 20/1 EW. He was one of the favourites for last years edition. He made a mistake and blew up after that. His next run was a fine second place in the Cottswold Chase, between Definitely Red and Bristol de Mai. The Gold Cup was too much, but that is not a shame, especially after the Cottswold Chase. As a results he is now 3 pounds lower then last year. Also Harry Fry seems to do better then last year. At 20/1 I’ll give it a go.
Glad Up for Review still there as I had rashly gone ahead and backed him when I mentioned him before (I needn’t have bothered going early- the 16s I took still available).
I am interested to know why Mrs Parfois is half the price of Rathvinden- he only has to give her 1lb more than he did on her preferred soft ground over 4 miles at Cheltenham. Sure he had Mullins Jr on board but she had Will Biddick and he’s no dope either. Was it her Aintree performance? That was a good performance but she was maybe a bit flattered by the distance she put between herself and Elegant Escape- who weakened at the end and subsequently had a wind op- and Black Corton who had been on the go since the previous April, was having his 14th run in just over a year and had a harder time in the RSA than she did in the NH chase by the looks of it.
I think she is a very good mare, just suprised at their relative prices. Is it because she is younger with fewer starts so more potential for improvement, or is it that WPM had mentioned English or Irish National as the potential main target for his horse and he tends fine tune them for one day?Also, where is Pairofbrowneyes? No Troytown, no Ladbrokes…is he not working well or is he being kept tucked up the sleeve of Willie’s big coat for another day?
Agree with you about Harry Fry’s stable form DBRDBR and American is a lovely sort…I do wonder whether he might be a bit of a Goldilocks horse though- ground not too soft or too good, not undercooked or overtrained, a nice trouble free round without battering anything and having to recover quickly etc. I sort of wonder whether his chance at this race was last year, even though he is that bit lower this year as you say. It will be a good training performance if Fry could send him out to win on the day. Must be tough to train a big framed fragile horse like tbat for a big race- short a couple of bits of work and he might not have the last edge of fitness needed, one piece of work too much and his legs give bother. If everything falls right you’ll be in clover though
Quite like the look of al boum photo for this if he runs, i followed him most of his hurdles career, sort of in and out on his chasing, but i think hes capable of a mid 160s which puts him in the “well in” bracket IMO
BUT mullins said kemboy to the be the one, so im hesitant to back AP, how close elliot is in the irish championship will determine how much pre cheltenham british runners mullins has, so its sketchy to back any of his british runners AP
but if hes decd, he will be my selection
Reckon you’re spot on with the Mullins runners on your side of the ditch being dependent on Gordon’s proximity to him in the trainers c’ship. The trouble for Gordon is that other trainers have decent staying handicappers so are nicking some of “his” money (see the Troytown for recent example) and the perennial problem that he doesn’t have enough good hurdlers so Willie hoovers up most of the hurdling money, with some going to JOB’s horses and some to Supasundae. If Giggi want Gordon to win, not only will they need to invest in hurdlers, they also might need to give him Meade’s good horses in addition to the ones transferred from Mouse and Willie himself. Even then Willie might stay ahead with his growing army of high-end syndicate/club horses. Much too early for him to be confident of the championship- but he does like following the money in the biggest English handicaps under both codes, so I think he will send a decent team to this.
He may have said Kemboy is the one but I dunno- he may have the class required but he’s not overly big, not like Denman, and it takes a bit of doing to lug a big weight to victory. Mind you Native River isn’t massive either, and Whisper nearly did it too and he’s small.
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