- This topic has 130 replies, 26 voices, and was last updated 6 years, 3 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Cracking race and a good ride from Doyle, who stayed cool (odd that it would have been classed by many as a poor ride had he just failed to get up). Buick’s ride was perhaps the better one, kicking on when he did.
Two fine horses although it’s unlikely they’re both world beaters and I cannot fathom why Cracksman has been pushed out to 8s for the Arc. He was only a baby when beaten a length in the Derby; wasn’t much older when failing by a neck at the Curragh where I think he would have won under a better ride. Since then he went undefeated until meeting fast ground for the first time (also getting upset in the preliminaries and at the stalls and never travelling in the race). He went down to the KG winner.
Highly unlikely to meet fast ground in October, he’s 2 from 2 in France and very probably still improving (Gosden reported him in great order today, having said at the start of the season the horse had matured massively since last season).
8/1 for the Arc is the bet of the Flat season for my money.
Beforehand , it looked a two horse race , and so it proved . I was on Crystal Ocean – having backed the horse before Will Buick was declared as the jockey .
It was a fine old tussle ; Crystal Ocean lost nothing in defeat and is certainly worth a wager in the Arc , if indeed that is where he’s headed next .
I am a great believer that as certain horses are more talented than other horses , the same can be said of jockeys. It’s all about fine margins at the top level , and I firmly believe that had Buick and Doyle swapped horses before the race , James Doyle would still have prevailed .
In my opinion , Doyle is the better stylist of the pair and is less prone to hitting the panic button than Buick .
The Doyler ( as Jason Weaver calls himm) has improved immeasurably over the past two seasons , and it was his timing and will to win that proved the deciding factor .Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
The Arc may be the best race in the World, Joe. But it doesn’t always need a “World Beater” to win it. Assessing whether a horse is good enough to win an ante-post race I look at five things:
1) Whether likely conditions will suit the horse, has the temperament and whether it’s likely to be at its best at that time of the year and is it a likely runner?
2) What rating the horse is capable of/will be capable of (Crystal Ocean is still improving).
3) What rating recent winners of the race have needed to put up in order to win the race and divide those ratings in to the number of races to find the average rating. Bearing in mind that in order to win a race all a horse needs to do is run to the rating of the second horse plus 1. eg In Treve’s first Arc she put up a Timeform rating of 137 in winning by 5 lengths (134 + 3 lbs fillies allowance = 137). However, Orfevre put up a rating of just 130 in finishing second, so a performance of just 131 would’ve been good enough to actually win that race. Golden Horn put up a Timeform Performance rating of 132, but the second Flintshire only 128, so + 1 means a rating of 129 would’ve been good enough to win. etc.
4) How do this year’s horses compare generally? Is this year’s renewal likely to need an above average, below average or average performance to win it? If a top form Enable or Cracksman turns up it’ll need an above average performance to win it, but that’s quite a big IF at this stage and there isn’t much else around with the possible exception of the possible potential of Sea Of class (and she isn’t sure to act/stay on softer). Both Poets Word and Crystal Ocean look good enough to win an average renewal and are still progressing.
5) Is the price worth taking the chance? Poets Word having a lot more options and less likely to be suited by an increased test of stamina softer ground may bring – imo Crystal Ocean is the better bet.
Value Is EverythingCracksman will turn up, one can be very sure about that, and he will show what he is made of!
Enable is a complete different story, so far she is just a kind of phantom and nobody knows if she will ever be seen again.
But even if so, I wouldn’t be afraid..If Cracksman’s problem is only going, Joe; then 8/1 is a fantastic price. Possible Epsom didn’t suit and possible the firmish ground at Ascot didn’t suit. But the important word there is “possible”. Epsom Derby was up to that point his best performance and that came on going the firmer side of good. May well need softer ground to produce his very best, but is that the only important factor here? To me, the way Cracksman went through both Epsom (on soft) and Ascot (on good-firm) were very similar; if there’s two seperate reasons for that its some coincidence. Last year I made the comment that although the horse is often pushed along to quicken, he had plenty of speed once asked for his effort – that speed proven by sectional times. However, imo the probabilty is that innitial laziness seems to have increased and now appears to hold the horse back. Yes, he got upset in the prelims – coltish at the fillies coming back from the previous race – but there’s likely to be fillies running in the Arc; woken up at the start too… But is that just him now?
Yes, Gosden did think he’d matured over the Winter, but that was some time ago and before two below par efforts. Although Ascot can be rated a little higher now, still a fair way below his best. Liklihood is there’s at least some temperament issues and possible he’s never again going to be capable of the Champion Stakes brilliance. Not all lost though. Surprised connections didn’t declare Cracksman with headgear yesterday; that could make the difference. One possible positive is he improved from August to October last year and time of year could bring a better horse.Must say I wouldn’t like to lay 8/1; that price probably does under-estimate Cracksman a little – particularly if Gosden tries headgear. Even with all the negatives if I were to have a second choice right now he’d be it.
Value Is EverythingCracksman’s unbeaten on ground with cut. His York and Ascot wins were imperious performances to my eye. It could be argued he didn’t beat Arc material in either but I stand by my old reliable saying: it ain’t what they do it’s the way that they do it. Mark’s issues on temperament are fairly made and anything can happen. But if he shows his true talent I believe he’s unbeatable currently at the trip on softish ground.
From time to time traders suffer from recency bias. He’s not been seen for a while and on his last two runs he’s not been himself. Someone at Betvictor has put 2 and 2 together and somehow made 8/1. It’s a silly price and ought to be taken.
Cracksman’s unbeaten on ground with cut.
Is that really a worthwile stat here though, Joe?
Unbeaten only because nothing much took him on in the Corry Cup. If it’s the way he does it, didn’t do it at all well. ie. On his latest start “with cut”, had Crystal Ocean been in that particular race Cracksman would’ve been beaten a very long way.If showing what he was capable of last year Cracksman will win; that’s some IF though.
Value Is EverythingHeadbutting a metal stall just before starting a race is not something condusive to producing ones best in a race (most horses run no race after doing so let alone win a G1) so the Epsom run in those circumstances highlights what ability he has.
The most striking thing about Royal Ascot was the fact that Dettori had to keep giving the horse multiple cracks with the whip as they were just walking around behind the stalls, which ITV’s Luke Harvey picked up on when down at the start (the only time I have ever seen a horse getting a crack with the whip is when a jockey is trying to convince a mulish horse to go in the stalls). Gosden confirming that he was also calling out to the fillies going back past him to the stables as he was being saddled clearly indicates that his mind was on a completely different kind of ‘job’
It would appear that connections will not run him on similar ground again (I am not convinced he didn’t act on it as he was 8L clear of the 3rd and showed no outward signs of being uncomfortable
on the ground by changing his legs or hanging). Autumn ground is clearly his preferred choice and the Arc is more likely to be run on ground he excels on more than PW & CO (even though they have won on it).Currently making Enable favourite for the race is the head scratcher for me as she is likely to only have one prep before and apart from learning she is working well at home there are no guarantees she will return the same horse as last year.
York could see a big shift in the market as a PW/Cracksman/Enable showdown in the Juddmonte is not beyond the realms of possibility.
Crystal Ocean is not entered in the Arc, neither is Poets Word. I know you can supplement but maybe there is another plan for both.
The Doyler said afterwards he wanted to be closer to the pace, but the horse in front of him (Coronet) wasn’t as close to the front three as the jockey would’ve liked… And if asked beforehand I myself would’ve agreed with him. Had they gone a normal pace being in Poets Word’s position would’ve been a disadvantage. However, fact it was a really strong pace made that spot a very good one. Was that because of The Doyler’s better judgement or just the run of the race? His post race comments suggest the latter.
Had it been a normally run race Buick would’ve gone for home at the perfect spot for one running at what was thought his perfect trip running against his main rival who was going up in trip. Because of the way the race was run perhaps it would’ve been best had Buick held on to Crystal Ocean a fraction later or at least not gone for home so forcefully. My main bet was Poets Word and tbh (given pace of the race) I was very confident the held up Poets Word would win a furlong out and that Buick had gone for home too soon…
However, not sure I was right.
Wasn’t as if Crystal Ocean was falling away late on; actually coming back at the winner in the final strides. So had they gone even faster early there’s an arguement Crystal Ocean would’ve won.
Had Buick kept hold of Crystal Ocean for longer and then got beaten he’d be getting much greater flak.
Had The Doyler got beaten in the Irish Oaks or King George he’d be getting awful flak for leaving it too late/being too far back.Good rides are often just a matter of where the jockey was positioned early and the pace the race was run at. Both The Doyler and The Buick are imo improved jockeys this season. Worst King George ride was (again) The Heff, who gave Rostropovich no chance. Suspect he’ll get The Chop from Ballydoyle or “retire” very soon.
Value Is EverythingOf the two I prefer Buick. I think he pretty much has everything – hands, pace judgement, balance and strength and I suspect he is stronger than Doyle mentally.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.