April 30, 2018 at 11:49 #1352618SteeplechasingParticipant
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Many here are showing what I’d normally call admirable restraint. I’m happy to abandon it entirely on the basis that I watch comparatively little flat racing and I’ve not been as excited about a horse to this extent since Frankel.
Fair points are being made about what Cracksman is beating, but regulars will be sick of hearing me say ‘it ain’t what they do it’s the way that they do it’. This horse is winning races in a fashion I can’t recall seeing, even in his sire. The time he takes to shift gear would normally be considered far too long in a top class horse. But when he finally clicks into that next gear, it has a huge range before he then shifts again until those behind look like they’re competing in a separate race (Ascot a fine example of this).
He looked to me to have at least one more gear change left yesterday as he passed the post. Enable’s a superb mare and having to give her an allowance would be beyond many top horses. I believe Cracksman will concede the weight readily and that he’s with the right trainer to go unbeaten throughout what remains of his career.
Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/April 30, 2018 at 12:21 #1352621Nathan HughesModerator
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I like your confidence Joe and agree he’d beat Enable for my money
the problem is does Gosden view Enable as a 12f horse only…?
If so it reduces the split of races for them. I can see Cracksman who won the Champion stakes over the 10f running in the Eclipse and Prince of Wales. Enable is being aimed at the Coronation Cup at Epsom so if Gosden splits the races and wants them to avoid each other it’s more likely Enable heads to the KG
None of the above is set in stone of course and only my opinion but if Cracksman was guaranteed a run in the KG then a near close to maximum bet would be getting put on.
The dilemma’s of the Ante Post world eh….Member since March 2008April 30, 2018 at 12:47 #1352623SteeplechasingParticipant
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Aye, Nathan. Juddmonte appear to have no problem meeting Cracksman in the King George and Oppenheimer seemed keen enough when raising it at Newmarket.
4s is now 5/2 from what I can see. Had half my max on in the end at 4/1 with the other half on him to win the Arc, topping up the 6/1 I took a few months ago.
Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/April 30, 2018 at 16:05 #1352646DexParticipant
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I thinks it’s pretty likley that Cracksman runs in this. His owner used to sponsor the race and seemed to be pretty keen on winning it with Golden Horn until the weather intervened.
Tattersalls Gold Cup 27th May
Prince of Wales Stakes 20th June
King George 28th July
They’re beautifully spaced out.May 1, 2018 at 01:11 #1352689
Oh dear, the nonsense begins again.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.May 1, 2018 at 12:45 #1352713DexParticipant
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“Cracksman’s next port of call is likely to be the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh on May 27, before an intended appearance in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.
His main midsummer target is the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes back at Ascot in July.
Oppenheimer added: “That (Tattersalls Gold Cup) is the plan and then hopefully Royal Ascot, but he won’t go anywhere if the ground is firm. He can handle everything else. Good to firm or soft ground is not a problem for him.
“I would love to win the King George.””May 7, 2018 at 13:39 #1353372
Enable is out until at least August with a setback.
Cracksman is now 11/10 and Evens with Saxon Warrior 7/2. Saxon Warrior was 33/1 for this race last week. It just shows its worth a go at big odds sometimes.
As far as The Arc De Triomphe goes Cracksman is generally 5/2 now, while Saxon Warrior varies between 5’s and 10’s.
You can get 5/1 on Enable but I wouldn’t take those odds given that it’s likely Enable will just have 1 run before the Arc and if that fails she probably misses the race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.May 7, 2018 at 14:44 #1353375TongeParticipant
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7/2 seems a crazy price for Saxon Warrior. Last Derby winner AOB sent to this race was Galileo and I can’t even recall him running one of his numerous Epsom also-rans since then. I can’t see the likely presence of Cracksman tempting him to alter this pattern!May 7, 2018 at 14:57 #1353377
Surely 33/1 isn’t a silly price though. He was available at those odds last week.
It is 33/1 bar Cracksman and Saxon Warrior and I reckon Cracksman is great value at 11/10 still. He could be well odds on I feel.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.May 7, 2018 at 16:06 #1353383LD73Participant
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If they are targeting a Triple Crown bid I would have thought they would avoid a KG run and go Irish Derby then a break and then Voltiguer/Leger – given he is such a big horse a mid summer break (a la Cracksman) might be in his best interests.May 7, 2018 at 17:09 #1353385DegaussedParticipant
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I think his path is mapped out, isn’t it? The same as Camelot – Derby, Irish Derby, St Leger.May 7, 2018 at 17:36 #1353389
He needs to prove he stays the Derby trip first. The Leger is out the window if he doesn’t.
I hope he doesn’t go for the Triple Crown. I doubt a Leger adds much because it’s not really a Group 1 quality race in my opinion. It’s a treble that is rare but Nijinsky probably left his Arc back at Doncaster and I’d far prefer to see Saxon Warrior challenge Cracksman at Parislongchamp and prove himself there, than against slow 3YO’s in the Leger.
Having backed Cracksman to a full monty bet at 4/1, and advised others to do the same, I am not for the idea of Saxon Warrior turning up here. I just think in retrospect 33/1 looks massive now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.May 7, 2018 at 17:54 #1353392TongeParticipant
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“Surely 33/1 isn’t a silly price though. He was available at those odds last week”.
Agreed. All the same, I’d prefer the 10s on offer for the Arc as I think he’s got more chance of turning up there and I at least like to SEE my selections get beaten! Far from convinced that he’ll stay, or that he’ll beat Cracksman if he does though (even if they don’t ruin any chance he might have with a St Leger attempt)May 7, 2018 at 18:42 #1353396CharlesOlneyParticipant
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I hope he doesn’t go for the Triple Crown
From what planet do you hail from sir? I hope you never come into contact with Mr Tabor.May 7, 2018 at 21:15 #1353404
I have never wanted to see a Triple Crown winner. The St Leger is a race for slow cuddies in my opinion. Some right old rubbish has landed the alleged “Classic” over the years and the race is pretty much shunned as an option for Derby winners these days.
Recent O’Brien Leger winners have run appallingly in the Arc anyway and with Saxon Warrior the St Leger trip is the best way of getting the horse beaten.
I can assure you I am on planet reality, whether Tabor is is the bigger question.
Fascinated with the Kentucky Derby he went there thinking he had a big chance with Mendelssohn. I, on the other hand can’t be bothered with US Racing in any aspect other than backing our horses in the turf events.
If Justify were to be compared to a human athlete it would be Michael Phelps, after the winning swim to the line at Churchill Downs.
Tabor is paying the money and can call the shots. That doesn’t make him a good judge about what is best for a horse though and his efforts in landing the Kentucky Derby have come to nothing yet again. Even his others who were originally aimed at Kentucky finished washed up in lower quality events.
So, no stray planets for me, I simply tell it the way I see it.
I have no reason to be against seeing Saxon Warrior lining up going for the triple crown because it would mean that he had landed the Epsom Derby, also landing my tickets at 33/1 and 66/1 to achieve that outcome.
I just don’t think the triple crown adds much to a horse in the modern era. I’d far rather see him go for the Arc with a chance of winning it, instead of falling short as Nijinsky did. The St Leger is a poor comparison to the Arc.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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