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Impressive.com
Wouldn’t rate the race through Youmzain though as his form at Ascot isn’t great:
Beaten 20 lengths by Papal Bull in the King Edward II Stakes
Beaten a cosy 4 lengths by Dylan Thomas in the King George
Beaten 9 lengths by Duke Of Marmalade in the King George
Not exactly brilliant form is it. Harbinger won as he liked and quotes of 2/1 for the Arc don’t look too short because he’s now beaten most of the horses towards the head of the market. Correction, he’s slammed most of the horses near the head of the market.
Cape Blanco’s confirmed York form with Workforce, and seemed to run his race. Hopefully St Nicholas Abbey can return to save the Irish and British middle distance 3yo’s. Cape Blanco’s an admirable horse though, tough as nails.
I see comparison’s with Sea The Stars above. Sea The Star’s is a tough horse to compare anything to though because we’ll never know how much the cheeky fella had in the locker. Mick Kinane maintains he always had plenty left in the tank but what else is he going to say. This horse has a long way to go before he achieves what Sea The Stars achieved though.
Improved a pound or two? One thing for sure he is a superior horse to Workforce.
JohnJ
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Frankie Dettori wasn’t at his best aboard Rewilding at Epsom and I maintain that he holds the key to the Derby form. And whilst I think Workforce has been massively over-hyped, he is obviously better than we have seen today and as a son of King’s Best may just have been feeling the ground.
That said, he wouldn’t have been within a whiff of Harbinger no matter how well suited to conditions he was.
Improved a pound or two? One thing for sure he is a superior horse to Workforce.
JohnJ
You really think that was Workforce’s best form?
Stoute has had a poor July. Like many of his stable he’s run below form. Being a 3 year old Workforce is more likely to run poorly than a 4 year old.
Get over it.
Value Is Everythingtracked leader, driven over 3f out, ridden and effort over 2f out, lost place over 1f out, faded inside final furlong touched 4/5 £5000-£5000 £500-£500 £10000-£11000 £7500-£8250 £3000-£3300 £2000-£2200 (x2) £1000-£1100 (x3) £3333-£4000 £1667-£2000 £1500-£1800 £1000-£1200 (x4) £4000-£5000 (x4) £2000-£2500 (x4) £1600-£2000 (x3) £1000-£1250 £800-£1000 (x2) £2000-£2750 £400-£550 £363-£500 (x2)
Lot of mugs about
The ARC going will be very different and 2-1 is another mugs bet.
Frankie Dettori wasn’t at his best aboard Rewilding at Epsom and I maintain that he holds the key to the Derby form. And whilst I think Workforce has been massively over-hyped, he is obviously better than we have seen today and as a son of King’s Best may just have been feeling the ground.
That said, he wouldn’t have been within a whiff of Harbinger no matter how well suited to conditions he was.
Agreed AJ, Workforce was hyped today, which saw him go off a rediculous price.
Value Is EverythingThe ARC going will be very different and 2-1 is another mugs bet.
I am a mug then.
Does he have a better or worse than 33% chance of winning the Arc?
Value Is EverythingImproved a pound or two? One thing for sure he is a superior horse to Workforce.
JohnJ
You really think that was Workforce’s best form?
Stoute has had a poor July. Like many of his stable he’s run below form. Being a 3 year old Workforce is more likely to run poorly than a 4 year old.
Get over it.
GT, I’m not sure I’ve ever heard of a three year old running poorly to a four year old through a stable’s lean times, not sure where you got that stat from. Whether or not Workforce ran to form or not, Cape Blanco has now defeated him twice and that’s what the form book reads.
JohnJ
The ARC going will be very different and 2-1 is another mugs bet.
I am a mug then.
Does he have a better or worse than 33% chance of winning the Arc?
Worse. Plenty of impressive King George winners have gone to Longchamp in October and run nowhere near the level they showed at Ascot.
The ARC going will be very different and 2-1 is another mugs bet.
I am a mug then.
Does he have a better or worse than 33% chance of winning the Arc?
Worse he still has to get there in one piece and he might well have peaked today. Somehow I see more over hype mania ala Workforce because of winning distance and track record but they will mean little in another race in another environment in 3 months.
I can see Youmzain doing what hes done for 3 years and anyone who backs Harbinger at 2/1 and not Youmzain e/w at massive odds is a mug.Improved a pound or two? One thing for sure he is a superior horse to Workforce.
JohnJ
You really think that was Workforce’s best form?
Stoute has had a poor July. Like many of his stable he’s run below form. Being a 3 year old Workforce is more likely to run poorly than a 4 year old.
Get over it.
GT, I’m not sure I’ve ever heard of a three year old running poorly to a four year old through a stable’s lean times, not sure where you got that stat from. Whether or not Workforce ran to form or not, Cape Blanco has now defeated him twice and that’s what the form book reads.
JohnJ
I think Andyod confirmed this in a thread this week.
With any virus, even with a low grade virus, a four year old plus horse could have had the virus before, so is immune. A three year old is more likely to run to form than two etc.Value Is EverythingRyan Moore said he didn’t handle the ground.
What a farce of a response that is. He handled it well at Epsom when he smashed the course record.
Gingertipster
Harbinger probably won’t run in the ARC so 2-1 is a mugs bet. If he does 2-1 is still a mugs bet.
You’ll get much better on the day. The ARC’s October so it will be a totally different race, and those that are A1 fit now are unlikely to be that in October.
The ARC going will be very different and 2-1 is another mugs bet.
I am a mug then.
Does he have a better or worse than 33% chance of winning the Arc?
Worse. Plenty of impressive King George winners have gone to Longchamp in October and run nowhere near the level they showed at Ascot.
3 have won both races in just the last 11 years. Montjeu, Hurricane Run and Dylan Thomas. In the latter Youmzain finished in second in both races.
Had more of them ran in both races, then more would probably have won both.
It’s one of those daft stats that Trends "experts" trot out that mean nothing.I don’t expect Harbinger to win it, I don’t believe he has a better than 50% chance (at the moment).
I do believe he has around a 42% chance, and that includes a chance of not running. Therefore a good bet at 2/1. Stan James 3/1 went like a shot (now 6/4 with them).Value Is Everything The mugs are backing him I’d want 5s before backing him antepost its very likely he’ll be bigger on day.
The mugs are backing him I’d want 5s before backing him antepost its very likely he’ll be bigger on day.
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