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Not sure I can even bring myself to open this thread or watch this race now.
Have I mentioned previously I was on Grey Dawning at 25’s only to cash in after the Betfair when Dodgy Dan said he wouldn’t run over Xmas??
Well I was! And it sticks in the throat. A lot. A LOT!!
Tiz, I hope for your sake that GD gets walloped. Well, beaten into 2nd, or 4th if you’re on ew. I like Grey Dawning but that is a sickener.
Unfortunate TC, I’ve done the same on more than one occasion with my ante-post bets.
But connections are entitled to change their minds. Especially when a race looks easier to win than could’ve been expected. (Probably no coincidence the decision to come here was I believe taken after Mullins took all his out)… And also when the horse seems to have recovered quicker than expected from what looked a hard race at Haydock.
Statistically, if trainers did not tell us their intentions until nearer race time; then we’d all back far more ante-post non-runner losers than we do now. Or back fewer horses ante-post.
However, 25/1 was never about the horse’s chance on form / likely improvement. Instead, it was all about his chance of actually turning up. Connections belief that Grey Dawning is best left-handed. Had they not expressed that view you’d have instead been on something like a 6/1 shot. To put it another way, you only got anything like 25/1 in the first place BECAUSE of the person you call “Dodgy Dan”.
Personally, I believe that if Grey Dawning can travel well down the home straight then he might win. But everything about the horse’s performances to date imo suggests he won’t like going right handed, especially once under pressure. So you’ve probably saved your money TC.
Value Is EverythingProtectorat unsurprisingly a NR. Skelton ran it right handed the other day even though he had already said ages ago the horse needs to go left handed and after Huntingdon reported to have said “I didn’t think going right-handed on Sunday would be the difference between winning and losing but I feel it actually was.”
One reason I’d be wary of Grey Dawning in this is Skelton originally saying that the horse needed a proper rest after Haydock. But now saying he’s fine and going to Kempton. If the horse disappoints he’ll just tell everyone the horse hadn’t recovered from Haydock, which isn’t going to surprise many of us who watched that race.
He can hardly say in public “He’s probably a bit tired and a bit left handed, but I want to win as much money as possible for the trainers’ championship so grist to the mill”.
Looking through the betting I’ve decided to go for Bravemansgame at 25s. Although he also went mudrunning at Haydock, the trainer reckons he saves a bit for himself now so may not have as hard a time as Grey Dawning. Older horses can do well here and Clan des Obeaux placed every year- his last run in the race being at the age of 9.
“Protectorat unsurprisingly a NR. Skelton ran it right handed the other day even though he had already said ages ago the horse needs to go left handed and after Huntingdon reported to have said “I didn’t think going right-handed on Sunday would be the difference between winning and losing but I feel it actually was.”
One reason I’d be wary of Grey Dawning in this is Skelton originally saying that the horse needed a proper rest after Haydock. But now saying he’s fine and going to Kempton. If the horse disappoints he’ll just tell everyone the horse hadn’t recovered from Haydock, which isn’t going to surprise many of us who watched that race”.
————————I think a lot of people prior to Sunday thought Protektorat best left-handed, Mike. But he was well clear on official ratings at Huntingdon. So Dan was entitled to think beforehand that going right-handed would not be the difference between winning and losing. Because on those ratings he could’ve run below form and still won… And after the race – with the evidence of the race itself – was entitled to change his mind. It was pretty clear it made a lot of difference (as well as being held up and taking a strong hold).
Trainers are entitled to change their minds about horses after the evidence of the race itself. Just as punters are. ie Trainers can believe a horse has recovered from its previous run and then after a disappointing run say “he hadn’t recovered”. Grey Dawning running adds to the race. Horses never go full speed at home so there will be times they’ll get it wrong. Just as we all do.
Races like the King George don’t come around very often and the best of the Irish are seemingly staying at home… Between the KG and GC in Britain there is only races like the Cotswold and Denman as alternatives. Races with nowhere near the prestige (and money) of this race… And plenty of time to recover for Cheltenham. So I can understand GD’s connections taking a chance on both being ready and the right-handed track. In fact I applaud them for having a go.
Value Is EverythingLets be blunt here its the prize money/trainers championship. There ought to be prestige for races like this but its not been that way for years now sadly.
IEF is now looking a fair price.
One bad run…that old adage
I assume he’s still coming over ?
IEF had a pulmonary haemorrhage on his last start on the 17th November, Mark.
That is a massive setback.
May not be capable of the form he showed before.
…And if he is still capable it may well take longer to recover than just over 5 weeks.If interested in backing him I’d wait until NRNB.
Value Is Everything…..we are running out of horses , def not a vintage year
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
I’ve taken the 66-1 ew on Ahoy Senor. He obviously hasn’t always dekivered, but I think he’s going here, so I thought that was on ok ew price
Interesting that Venetia has kept L’homme Presse fresh for this, I hadn’t realised his record first time out was quite so good.
There’s nothing else in the race to be particularly scared of so he will do for me at 11s.
That’s interesting about L’homme Presse MoyenneCorniche. A horse I’ve always liked I’ll back him antepost to
VF x
L’Homme Presse’s excellent first time out record certainly needs to be taken into consideration, but so does his record of jumping out to the left. Don’t get me wrong, he has put up some good performances right-handed. Just that imo he’s more consistent the other way around.
Value Is EverythingI can’t believe Hewick would remain over hurdles instead of defending his crown, if all was well with him. There must be something wrong surely?
Value Is Everything
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