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The Real Whacker looks a big price at 25’s so had a nibble yesterday. Never went at all last year, but hoping that he is a different horse this time around. I was at Wetherby when he won Charlie hall where he looked rejuvenated. Hoping its like 2015 again all over when the Charlie Hall sparked Cue Card back into life.
Fair point Mike, LHP is equally effective after he’s had a run. It’s just that imo he’s more consistent first time out… And consistency matters when evaluating what chance a horse has of winning. His record after more than 200 days off the track remains 1, 1, 1, 1… And as I say, the performances he’s put up first time out (form-wise – not just placings) are no worse than what he’s ever produced at other times.
Basing opinions of horses on the grade number of race titles is asking for trouble. It’s “form” – what one horse does against another – that counts.
Value Is EverythingJuntos Ganamos and Il Est Francais are silly prices in relation to each other. I have my doubts about the former’s ability to jump round, but that seems to be more than covered at current prices.
” IEF had a pulmonary haemorrhage on his last start on the 17th November, Mark.
That is a massive setback.
May not be capable of the form he showed before.
…And if he is still capable it may well take longer to recover than just over 5 weeks.If interested in backing him I’d wait until NRNB. ” @gingertipster
I was aware of that but considering the likely defectors etc…anyway, it’s turned out alright and I can’t lose on the horse now
However, I’m also with Spillane’s Tower because I think he has the talent to become the best 2.5 – 3 mile chaser of the season
Not really a standout for me this year. I like L’Homme Presse as always, unfortunately I missed the big prices for him. I think his two years ago against a prima Bravemansgame is good form.
I also think Corbetts Cross is too big a price. Jumping will be key, but if can get into a rhytm he might be the one with the biggest engine.
L’Homme Presse 11/1
Corbetts Cross 14/1On December 10th, in an interview with Nick Luck, the trainer of Spillane’s Tower said “He’s been in great form. We’re very happy with him and it’s all going well for Christmas, provided the rain comes. If I saw the word good I would be worried.”
The ground surely will be too quick for LHP on his return and I am not sure Corbetts Cross jumping is slick enough for this level on a track where your jumping ability comes under the microscope.
IEF quite frankly I am surprised they have even come – I take on board the fact he will no doubt be a better horse on much better ground and as impressive as his Kempton win was, the form is god awful and the fact that in his only three runs since then have resulted in one abysmal performance (beaten 55L) and one pulled up due to internal bleeding means he would have to be on a watching brief…..I also think he could have a contested lead with 2 others (LHP and TRW) that are likely to want to also lead and Cobden saying he intends to ride BMG much more handy too.
Banbridge is interesting as he clearly needs the ground quicker than clerks of the course will usually allow it to be, so assuming that the good (good to soft in places) description is accurate, that is about as ideal as he could have asked for. He also has winning form at Kempton and was in the processing of giving Energumene a real race before unseating at the last (when the winner edged accross him). Yes he is unproven at the trip (only run at 3m was in Sefton Hurdle at Aintree where his jockey reported he was never travelling) he is a strong stayer at 2m4f and he can sit off the very likely fast pace and may be able to pick up the pieces for a place.
Spillane’s Tower is the most likely winner and while most of his best form is on deeper ground, he did win the Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown over 3m1f (his fist try at further tham 2m4f) and a Maiden Hurdle on yielding ground so I don’t think the worries on the ground are likely as big as connections might make it sound, I expcet well see him employ the some hold up tactics that almost saw him win the John Durkan as a repeat of that form will be more than enough to win.
It’s got to be Banbridge for me at 11-2. Just hope his jumping stands up, stamina-wise I think he’ll be fine.
I saw a William Hill Preview with Spillane Tower’s trainer’s daughter on the panel. She said (I paraphrase) “people have taken what Dad has said the wrong way. It’s not that we think he won’t go on GOOD ground. Just that GOODish ground places a higher chance of injury”.
Now Spillane Tower is over here, I think the chances of taking him out are fsirly slim.
For Me – Spillanes Tower’s ability to show his form on Good ground must be a question. From what I’ve seen he seems to have a slightly rounded action but nothing like a pounding one that will usuallly need a soft surface… And – as it stands – he has if anything shown better form on GOOD-SOFT than SOFT. If it were the other way around I’d be more concerned.
Value Is EverythingGrey Dawning looking forward to this looks a great race.
The more I know the less I understand.
‘GOODish ground places a higher chance of injury’
Really…….on that principle one can argue that soft/heavy ground places a higher chance of injury….not on jarring joints obviously but on straining tendons or pulling muscles as horses have to work that much harder to not only get their hoofs out of the ground (they sink much further into the ground when its deep) but also to heave their shoulders up high enough to jump fences.
“I also think he could have a contested lead with 2 others (LHP and TRW) that are likely to want to also lead and Cobden saying he intends to ride BMG much more handy too”.
I’d be surprised if they don’t change tactics on Corbetts Cross too. Flat 3m is a minimum for him on Goodish ground and even so will need a strong pace in order to bring his stamina into play too.
Value Is EverythingDepends on the horse LD. I’d have thought jarring joints is the main worry for a good jumper with a slightly rounded action.
Value Is EverythingAdded Corbetts Cross, as after missing him at Cheltenham, be daft to miss him again
Corbetts Cross 14’s
Ginger – agreed in principle but not knowing and having never run on that kind of ground in the past and just assuming injury is more likely I don’t think is a great point to be putting in the public domain.
You could argue that if your horse can’t race on genuinely good ground (probably on the softer side of good or deadish having watched the first race at Kempton and heard Ruby’s comments from on course beforehand) then there must be a question as to whether it should be in training in the first place or you should probably be targeting jump races exclusively in France that are pretty much run on nothing but soft/heavy ground.
tbh LD, it is a point I’d definitely make if I were the trainer.
You say yourself “if genuinely good ground”.
Clerks often get it wrong. If the trainer thought the Clerk had got it wrong and it is not genuinely GOOD but GOOD-FIRM… It would be a lot easier for him to pull Spillanes Tower out.Officially Good, good-soft in places… And I’d say taking the slowish pace of the first race. 8.5 seconds slow suggests the Clerk has it right – it’s slightly on the slow side of good.
Value Is EverythingDon’t have any issue with a trainer/connections saying that they would prefer softer ground for their horse but there was no need to say ‘a higher chance of injury’ in relation to ground described as good (good to soft in places)……just like Hendo didn’t need to say that one time at Ascot that the ground was ‘a welfare issue’ when it clearly wasn’t.
Maybe trainers are so used to running their horse on winter soft/heavy ground (be it naturally occuring from mother nature or artificially manufactured) that when anything quicker than that happens they automatically think it is unsafe to run on
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