- This topic has 153 replies, 42 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 8 months ago by
.
- Posts
- Total Posts 17716
The RP already has today’s time-based ground as firm, and you wouldn’t envisage it getting any slower.
Coolmore have elected only to use DoM’s usual pacemaker, which suggests they aren’t too worried about any of the opposition, and with New Approach so far clear of the rest, it could well be a laydown forecast.If the ground is to be firm, and it did look decent ground today (Fri), then I will consider this purely a "watching" race as opposed to a punting medium.
Zip
If you have both the best miler and the winner of the irish derby in the yard how do you find out how good DOM is without going to the races?
With the going reported to be Good to Firm, I won’t be backing New Approach. He handled quick ground when he won the National Stakes as a 2YO and ran a blinder under similar conditions at Newmarket, however.
I still fancy him to win the race, but taking into consideration The Duke’s class on his favoured ground, it’s a race I’d just prefer to enjoy.
I’ll have a small wager on CAT JUNIOR ew, though. He’s still being touted at 50/1 and that’s far too big a price for me. Phoenix Tower and Pipedreamer are the prime candidates for third spot, but neither of them are superstars.
The Cat, sure to improve on only his fifth outing, will appreciate the step up to ten furlongs and the drying ground will be in his favour. He was defeated by a dual Guineas winner in the St James’ Palace Stakes and his Prix Jean Prat form looks even stronger since Tamayuz defeated Natagora in the Jacques le Marois.
Forecast betting is not my strongest subject, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he started around 20/1 come 15.35 as punters look for a ew alternative to the front two.
Agree with others that Cat Junior making the frame or winning w/o the big two could be the value play here.
The tail wind exaggerated the times at Newmarket yesterday, but I think it is as official Good-firm. Do not want a main bet on New Approach because of that.
And: Although Trainerspot has O’Brien as being in form, his 2 wins from 18 runners in the last two weeks were both odds on. May be not quite in the same form as earlier in the season.
Is this the time to back against the front two in the market?
With Pipedreamer or Phoenix Tower?
Mark
Value Is EverythingI agree with those that reckon New Approach is slighly overpriced- I’d find it hard to split the front 2, but reckon the rest are 2 grades below them. If there is a bet it’s New Approach, a race to watch, though, for me.
The tail wind exaggerated the times at Newmarket yesterday, but I think it is as official Good-firm. Do not want a main bet on New Approach because of that.
And: Although Trainerspot has O’Brien as being in form, his 2 wins from 18 runners in the last two weeks were both odds on. May be not quite in the same form as earlier in the season.
Is this the time to back against the front two in the market?
With Pipedreamer or Phoenix Tower?
Mark
Hi Ginge are you serious? Pipedreamer is one of my favourite horses in training but surely he is a hop skip and a few jumps behind the likes of NA and DOM.
Funny old game racing but not as funny as your question
I would think there’s a fair chance one of the front 2 could run below par but for either of the 2 P’s to beat them both the odds must be awesome.
You being a value man would surely want more than 5/1 backing the two would get you?
For me this is like a match similar to Grundy V Bustino and IMO best you don’t have a would bevalue bet mate cos it just isn’t going to happen.
In a Grundy V Bustino replay, you’d want to have a decent crack at one of them to have something to cheer on when they go neck-and-neck out down the dip?
I think there is a Cat Junior fan club growing here – he’s run four times and keeps improving for every run without harming his price when he enters another Group 1.
However, I think they need to give him a chance to be victorious in lesser class this campaign, just so he doesn’t end up in a trend of losing!!!
Red Rock Canyon is here to perform the pacemaking duties and will be priced accordingly.
Hence, he is a shorter quote than both Halicarnassus and Championship Point. Right on Laddys!
Didnt realise until today that the extra half a furlong from york isnt included at newmarket, New Approach does not have his optimal conditions groundwise, but I am still going to play him at 9/4 in the hope that class prevails on the day. Come on New Approach.
Woeful ride by Manning and very disappointing performance by New Approach. Anticlimax of the season.
Woeful ride by Manning and very disappointing performance by New Approach. Anticlimax of the season.
New Approach pulled Manning’s arms out early on I think its very harsh to criticise him on this occasion. Had he let the horse go he’d have run away with him. New Approach got away with it at Epsom but against Duke Of Marmalade he couldn’t afford to pull like that.
The Duke is bombproof.
When your stepping a horse back down by 2 furlongs on a quicker surface, going from the front (or at the very least a prominent position) is a no brainer. Instead Manning just let the horse pull it’s head off at the back, the bloke’s a genius.
When your stepping a horse back down by 2 furlongs on a quicker surface, going from the front (or at the very least a prominent position) is a no brainer. Instead Manning just let the horse pull it’s head off at the back, the bloke’s a genius.
The horse wasn’t just pulling a bit he was fighting his jockey. At least the horse finished his race he wouldn’t have done had he been let go.
It was always going to be difficult for New Approach to beat the Duke today anyway.
When your stepping a horse back down by 2 furlongs on a quicker surface, going from the front (or at the very least a prominent position) is a no brainer. Instead Manning just let the horse pull it’s head off at the back, the bloke’s a genius.
Having a go at Manning when he was clearly employing pre planned race tactics (on a headstrong horse) that were successful in the Derby is a bit strange to me.
If he had of ridden him handy he would have pulled his chance away, instead the horse dropped the bit after a couple of furlongs. Just not good enough.
But why bother give credit to a 5 time Group 1 winner when we can talk through our pocket about the beaten horses, well beaten horses I might add.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.