- This topic has 153 replies, 42 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 8 months ago by
.
- Posts
Given that this amounts to weight-for-age plus the sex allowance I suppose it depends on what their relative merits are as racehorses.
Timeform has them level with an 11 lb pull for Bolger’s filly. I wouldn’t be inclined to disagree with that to any great extent. (Note that New Approach would be 6 lb clear of both given his WFA allowance)
Ladbrokes go 4/7 about the Duke and 6’s about New Approach… Apparently thats how far in front they feel he is…
I’m surprised by how short he is so surely either NA isn’t going to run or the Duke is stuffing Henry on the gallops…
I’d definitely rather back NA at those prices…
An absolute procession is on the cards with New Approach.
He has the perfect blend of power and toughness to absolutely leave Duke Of Marmalade to rest.
What will leave us all wondering is how New Approach has come back since Epsom – has he improved, strengthened, faltered, still carrying ailments?
The fact that we’re happy to lay 6-1 about the Derby winner simply goes to show how far in front we feel Duke of Marmalade is.
Punters will be looking to get off to a flier on the opening day at York with yet another Ballydoyle Group 1 winner.
What information do Ladbrokes have? This is quite a declaration. The race is over according to the Ballydoyle insiders.
Again – I must take interest in Cat Junior. Stepping up in his ability and keeps the punters and press on their toes, but is still insignificant. A quiet achiever.
As for the 10 furlongs, it’s uncertain. Luna Wells won at 10 furlongs at the highest level on a bog track but he’s by Storm Cat. What influence that will make I’m not sure.
However, Giant’s Causeway had Rahy as a damsire – and then there’s Cat Junior’s damsire (Sadler’s Wells) a half brother to the sire of Falbrav. There really should be a decent 10 furlong influence but I worry about the Storm Cat side.
Anyway – I’ve rambled too much.
If you take New Approach out of this race there is no other winner than DOM. Bolger will apparently decide at the weekend if he runs which suggests he may not but 6-1 with a run looks a pretty enticing bet.
Myles,
There may be a bit more improvement to come from Cat Junior and I think he is capable of picking up a G2 but I would be surprised if he gets within 3-4 lengths of the principles. Probably worth a place bet on BF though if the price is right.
Over the last few days there have been patches of standing water on Knavesmire which persistant rain today (just stopped) has topped up. As far as I can see the racetrack itself has no waterlogging but with plenty more rain forecast before Tuesday anyone punting at York would be well advised to prepare for late non-runners due to the likelihood of soft/heavy going.
caveat emptor: York + Soft = cheshire cat layers
Cat Junior is likely to be … 5/1 for the place? I think it is great value if he keeps on making progress. Luna Wells won her Prix Saint-Alary on V. Soft.
This could be Ladbrokes’ moment of the year. Either they’ll perish or proceed.
Excellent news as New Approach is now a confirmed runner so we should be in for a cracking race. NA now as short as 3-1 and best priced 5-1.
Brilliant! And what a delight if he can flog the uninviting Duke Of Marmalade – price-wise.
This could be my heaviest wager of the year coming up.
- Total Posts 17716
Frankly, I don’t think New Approach will see where Duke Of Marmalade went – even if the hapless Kevin Manning does manage to extricate himself from the inevitable attentions of DoM’s stablemates.
Danehills dont like soft ground, with yorks clay base and the fact is been raining up here and is forcast for more makes me think Nw Approach is a steal…
Smokey Oakey in the strensall eachway…
Its not true to say that Danehill’s dont like soft gr,the best horses’s by danehill in europe have been trained by o brien.Dylan thomas,the rock, GW,Horatio nelson to name a few, and they all handled soft gr fine,yes they prefered good/faster ground but they handled soft none the least,The ground at york should not be a problem for the duke,he was 3rd in the mile race on soft gr at ascot last september and he coped well with that.
Always felt the Danehills were OK on the soft, and of course his son Danehill Dancer can turn out some nice ones under those conditions.
However, they are better on firmer ground yes.
That’s not the point. Point is, for DoM to beat NA he really needs to be on his game and everything fall his way.
My only query against NA is returning from an unexpected break with an ailment.
You would have to think there were only three form horses in this namely:
New Approach
Phoenix Tower
Duke Of Marmalade
It would be no surprise if DOM were to lose his unbeaten record for the season here. If the rain persists then I suppose its possible they could take him out. The going is already heavy.
Mike
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.